827
FXUS62 KJAX 101446
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1046 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THRU THE WEEKEND
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND ROUGH SURF THRU TONIGHT
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. DRY & WARMER FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND
- FOG POTENTIAL RETURNS THIS WEEKEND
UPDATE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK TODAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
INTO MIDDAY 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT THE COAST, 10-15 MPH
INLAND WITH GUST TO 20 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST, STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WSW INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHILE WEAK COAST TROUGHS OVER THE FL COASTAL
WATERS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THE ELEVATED ONSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF HIGH SURF UP TO 6-8 FT
BREAKERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS.
A FEW BRIEF LIGHT COASTAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE, BUT SHOULD DRY
OUT WEST OF I-95 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY.
THE HIGH WILL SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND SETTLE FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NC WSW INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
HELPING TO RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GRADUALLY REDUCE WINDS TO
10-15 MPH AT THE COAST AND 6-12 MPH INLAND JUST BEFORE SUNSET.
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ALONG THE COAST TO I-95 IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL INLAND WITH LOW 80S WEST OF HIGHWAY 301.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT POST MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE COAST AND VARY FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST, WITH CALM WINDS
AWAY FROM THE COAST. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH AREAS
OF FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE WHICH MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S FOR INLAND SE GA TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE NE
FL COAST WITH MID 50S ACROSS INLAND NE FL AND NEAR 60 ALONG THE SE
GA COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HAZARDS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE, HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
HIGH SURF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST,
AND AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH TODAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
DECREASE TODAY, WITH BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE NE
FL COAST AS NE WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AT 15-20G25-30 MPH ALONG THE
COAST AND NE 10-15G20-25 MPH OVER INLAND AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL
REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES TODAY IN THE MIDDLE 70S AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 80S
OVER INLAND AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND AND AROUND
60F ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME 5 MPH OR LESS OVER INLAND
AREAS. FOR NOW EXPECT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS, BUT
NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, CLEARING SKIES, AND DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
- INLAND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, CLEAR SKIES,
DRY WEATHER, AND A LIGHT EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGHS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S, THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH THE
EASTERLY ONSHORE BREEZE, COOLER MARINE AIR WILL KEEP LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. NEAR
CALM WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS EACH MORNING
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA LEADING TO WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN
FROM THE GULF TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE FROM THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL TREND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME INLAND LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
REACHING NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S PAST MIDWEEK.
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER AS AS THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS MUCH.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR/MVFR CEILINGS MIX ACROSS THE AREA
TERMINALS WITH NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS 6-10 KNOTS WITH VCSH AND LIGHT
DRIZZLE AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST AND DUVAL COUNTY SITES. HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW WITH A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS DRIFTING TO THE COASTAL SITES ON AND
OFF, SO HAVE VCSH AT SGJ AND SSI THROUGH 00Z. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST AND 12-15 KNOTS
INLAND WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE. WINDS DECREASE AFTER 00Z
TO 3-5 KNOTS INLAND AND AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE COAST WITH SCATTERED
CEILINGS NEAR 4.0 KFT. BY LATE TONIGHT, MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN
ALONG THE COAST IN THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
INLAND AS WINDS GROW CALM AFTER 05Z-06Z.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST, WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AS WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE SEAS
WILL ALSO LOWER THROUGH TODAY BUT ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, AND MORE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST
NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY, AND
LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ELEVATED SURF AND ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAIL. HIGH SURF OF 6-8 FEET TODAY, WILL LOWER TO 4-6 FEET
SATURDAY AND 3-5 FEET BY SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- DAILY HIGH INLAND DISPERSION
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY INLAND SOUTHEAST GA SATURDAY
BREEZY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY, HOWEVER WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE COMPARATIVELY LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, ALONG WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED COASTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY,
AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD BEGINS WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMING HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACH CRITICALLY LOW VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, INCLUDING THE OKEFENOKEE NWR.
NEXT WEEK, THE DRIER AIRMASS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MINIMUM INLAND HUMIDITY OF 25-35% IS
FORECAST WITH DAILY AFTERNOON GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZES
PRESSES INLAND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: INLAND FOG POTENTIAL RETURNS THIS
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 51 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 74 57 76 62 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 77 56 81 57 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 76 61 77 62 / 20 10 0 0
GNV 81 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 82 56 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ450-
452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ470-472-
474.
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