194
FXUS62 KJAX 111209
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
809 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. DRY & WARMER FRIDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED WILDFIRE DANGER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND
- FOG DEVELOPMENTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING
UPDATE
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH A FEW SPRINKLES CENTERED
NEAR FLAGLER COUNTY AND ALSO OFFSHORE, WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS
LOCATED. THIS VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
DAY WITH CHANCES OF ABOUT 10-15 PERCENT AT BEST. EARLY THIS
MORNING, PATCHY FOG IS LINGERING FROM JUST NORTH OF JAX METRO TO
COASTAL GA AND WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE HOUR. OTHERWISE, WAKING
UP TO COOL TEMPS IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE OVER NORTHERN ZONES
WITH 50S TOWARD THE SOUTH ZONES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER PARTS
OF OUR FL ZONES WITH STRATOCU AND SOME CIRRUS. SOME OF THESE
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES (~10-20 PERCENT SKY COVER) EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING ALL ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN UPDATES WERE TO REFLECT THE COOL TEMPS
THIS MORNING AND ALSO NUDGE DOWN THE TEMPS TONIGHT A BIT. STILL
SOME CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT NE FL/SE GE BEACHES
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG AROUND SUNRISE OVER INLAND AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING: STILL EXPECT A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS IN THE SLOW WEAKENING OF NE FLOW, OTHERWISE
STILL ON TRACK FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG FROM JAX TO BRUNSWICK ALONG THE
I-95, US-17 AND US 301 HIGHWAY CORRIDORS AROUND SUNRISE AS TEMPS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S OVER INLAND AREAS, AND AROUND 60F ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
WITH E-NE STEERING FLOW, BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS E-NE
WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15G20-25 MPH ACROSS NE FL, STRONGEST AT
THE NE FL BEACHES AND 5-10G15 MPH ACROSS SE GA. SKIES GENERALLY
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS PUSHING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS INLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S, WHILE THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS AROUND 80F ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
MID/UPPER 70S AT ATLANTIC BEACHES. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE NE FL
BEACHES, MEASURABLE RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 20% TODAY.
TONIGHT: NOT MUCH CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH
OF THE REGION WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING. MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH NEAR CALM WINDS DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS ALONG WITH LOCALLY
DENSE FOG POTENTIAL TOWARDS SUNRISE ALONG THE US-17 AND US-301
HIGHWAY CORRIDORS. MIN TEMPS STILL IN THE 50S INLAND AND AROUND 60F
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WARMER TEMPERATURES, CLEARING SKIES, AND DRY WEATHER
- INLAND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY DIURNAL
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO BEING THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
DEVELOPMENTS DURING THIS PERIOD. DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
WEEKEND WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER INLAND AREAS AND
INTO THE MID 70S FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR INLAND
AREAS AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEAR THE SHORELINE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
INTO THE WEEKEND. PREVAILING FLOW WILL BECOME LESS UNIFORM BY
MIDWEEK AS THE CENTER OF ROTATION DRIFTS IN OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS
RISING TO BE WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
SOME CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND STRATUS ARE NEAR JAX,
SSI, AND VQQ FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF, PERIOD BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT FROM GNV TO SGJ THIS
MORNING, BUT WILL BE TEMPORARY. COULD ALSO BE SOME BROKEN CLOUDS AT
OR ABOVE 3500 FT FOR SGJ TODAY IN THE ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE EARLY
AFTN. FOR WINDS, E-NE INCREASING TO 10G15 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TODAY AND
DECREASING ONCE AGAIN BY SUNSET.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE THE PREVAILING FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED SEAS TODAY OVER THE AREA WATERS,
MOSTLY FROM EAST SWELLS, WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
ONSHORE FLOW KEEP A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND WITH
ROUGH SURF OF 4-6 FEET TODAY AND 3-5 FEET ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH INLAND DISPERSION THIS WEEKEND
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THIS WEEKEND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND THEN SHIFT TO
BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY SUNDAY. HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS INLAND NE FL
TODAY WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE INLAND LOCATIONS OF NE FL
AND SE GA ON SUNDAY. AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER THE
AREA, AFTERNOON RH VALUES VALUES WILL APPROACH CRITICALLY LOW VALUES
TODAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS FOR
THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ELEVATED CRITERIA. NEXT
WEEK, THE DRIER AIRMASS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MINIMUM INLAND HUMIDITY OF 25-35% IS
FORECAST WITH DAILY AFTERNOON GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZES
PRESSES INLAND. ADDITIONALLY, A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE
SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENTS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH MORE
DENSE DEVELOPMENTS OCCURRING OVER INLAND AREAS AND ALONG THE SE
GEORGIA COAST.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES:
APRIL 13: JAX 92/2001, CRG 91/2001, GNV 93/1922, AMG 88/2001
APRIL 14: JAX 90/2007, CRG 90/2023, GNV 91/2019, AMG 91/2007
APRIL 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954
APRIL 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967
APRIL 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967
APRIL 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 86 52 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 77 57 76 63 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 81 55 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 77 60 78 63 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 84 54 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 83 54 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...NONE.
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