466
FXUS62 KJAX 161751
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
151 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. DRY & NEAR RECORD
WARMTH THIS WEEK. CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
INLAND EACH DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INCREASE RISK OF
FIRE SPREAD
- FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
- STRONG ONSHORE WINDS & SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURN
SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH INLAND AREAS WITH HIGHS NEAR 90F
- ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK
- PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR/SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSISTS TODAY WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90, WHILE AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS A BIT COOLER AND CLOSER TO 80F. TONIGHT, WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG BEING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
- FOG POTENTIAL EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY INLAND
- DRY & WARM WEATHER PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD HIGHS
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY BRIEF
500 MB HEIGHT RISES DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING A DRY AIRMASS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
REST OF THE WEEKEND, A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION, THOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS LIMITED.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF, CENTRAL FL, TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE LIKELY ONLY PUSHING TO JUST WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
MEAN DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 8-12 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE, SKIES WILL TEND TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER BOUNDARY, WITH MIXING UP TO 7-
8 KFT. THUS, WARM AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS. RECORD WARM IS
ANTICIPATED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS, WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD MATCH OR BREAK
THEIR RECORD HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP
THE COASTAL AREAS SLIGHTLY COOLER. LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING FOG
POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEAR CALM WINDS COULD BRING
PERIODS OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG INLAND EACH MORNING, WITH PATCHY
"SUPERFOG" POSSIBLE NEAR SMOKE FROM ANY ONGOING WILDFIRES. AND IN
REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER, WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON SATURDAY,
MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST GA SO A BIT HIGHER WILDFIRE RISK IS LIKELY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE LACK OF
STRONG FORCING AND ESPECIALLY THE LIMITED MOISTURE PRECLUDE MENTION
OF A MENTION OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS RUN SHOWS
A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC CHANCE OF A FEW PASSING SHOWERS (ESTIMATED
CHANCES 20 PERCENT OR LESS), BUT EVEN SO THE RAINFALL AMOUNT
LOOKS VERY LOW.
BEHIND THE FRONT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS, A PERIOD OF ELEVATED NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON
MONDAY. DRY AIR FILTERS IN ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT, CONTINUING THE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
COOL ADVECTION AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR
MONDAY, ACTUALLY FLIPPING TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES TO MORE
EASTERLY. WE COULD RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THURSDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES AROUND 19-21Z. WINDS DECREASE
TO NEAR CALM ONCE AGAIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET NEAR THE END OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. EXPECTED AT LEAST MVFR FOG FOR VQQ AND GNV
FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE THE PREVAILING FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
SOLID MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WILL CONTINUE FOR NE FL/SE GA BEACHES IN
THE SE/ONSHORE FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SURF/BREAKERS MAINLY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. HIGH RISK OF RIPS AND
POTENTIAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
STRONG NE WIND SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW INLAND MIN RH VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION POSSIBLE SATURDAY OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA, CONTINUING THE DRY, SUNNY,
AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS, COMBINED WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL/EXTREME DROUGHT, WILL
CONTINUE THE ELEVATED FIRE RISK ACROSS THE AREA. CRITICALLY LOW
MIN RH VALUES INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH AFTERNOON LOWERING TO THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S INTO SATURDAY. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL
STEADILY TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY
FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR THE GULF SEABREEZE TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND
AND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE STAYING CLOSER TO THE COAST.
DISPERSIONS REMAIN IN THE GENERALLY GOOD RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH HIGH DISPERSIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GA MAINLY NORTHWEST OF US HIGHWAY 84. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WEEK AS A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO WEST AND
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY INLAND FOG WILL DEVELOP EACH
MORNING THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED "SUPERFOG"
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS NEAR THE VICINITY OF ANY SMOKE FROM
ONGOING WILDFIRES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES:
APRIL 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967
APRIL 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967
APRIL 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967
APRIL 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 58 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 61 86 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 59 92 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 60 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 56 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 56 91 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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