834
FXUS62 KJAX 162318
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
718 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. DRY & NEAR RECORD WARMTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND EACH
DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INCREASE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
- FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY INLAND
- STRONG ONSHORE WINDS & SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH INLAND AREAS WITH HIGHS NEAR 90F
- ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK
- PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR/SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER PERSISTS TODAY WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90, WHILE AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS A BIT COOLER AND CLOSER TO 80F. TONIGHT, WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG BEING ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
- FOG POTENTIAL EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY INLAND
- DRY & WARM WEATHER PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD HIGHS
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY BRIEF
500 MB HEIGHT RISES DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING THROUGH
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING A DRY AIRMASS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
REST OF THE WEEKEND, A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION, THOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS LIMITED.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF, CENTRAL FL, TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE LIKELY ONLY PUSHING TO JUST WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
MEAN DAYTIME SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 8-12 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE, SKIES WILL TEND TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR/SUNNY WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER BOUNDARY, WITH MIXING UP TO 7-
8 KFT. THUS, WARM AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTS. RECORD WARM IS
ANTICIPATED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS, WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD MATCH OR BREAK
THEIR RECORD HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP
THE COASTAL AREAS SLIGHTLY COOLER. LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING FOG
POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NEAR CALM WINDS COULD BRING
PERIODS OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG INLAND EACH MORNING, WITH PATCHY
"SUPERFOG" POSSIBLE NEAR SMOKE FROM ANY ONGOING WILDFIRES. AND IN
REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER, WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON SATURDAY,
MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST GA SO A BIT HIGHER WILDFIRE RISK IS LIKELY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE LACK OF
STRONG FORCING AND ESPECIALLY THE LIMITED MOISTURE PRECLUDE MENTION
OF A MENTION OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE 12Z GFS RUN SHOWS
A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC CHANCE OF A FEW PASSING SHOWERS (ESTIMATED
CHANCES 20 PERCENT OR LESS) BUT EVEN SO THE RAINFALL AMOUNT LOOKS
VERY LOW.
BEHIND THE FRONT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS, A PERIOD OF ELEVATED NORTH AND THEN
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE COAST ON
MONDAY. DRY AIR FILTERS IN ONCE AGAIN INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT, CONTINUING THE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
COOL ADVECTION AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR
MONDAY, ACTUALLY FLIPPING TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TUESDAY TO THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES TO MORE
EASTERLY. WE COULD RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THURSDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A MAJORITY
OF THE TAF SITES, WITH A PERIOD OF LOWER VSBYS FOR INLAND SITES
(VQQ/GNV) AROUND 09Z AS WINDS BECOME NEAR CALM. LIGHT WINDS RETURN
AROUND 12Z, WITH WINDS SHIFTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 17Z/18Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE THE PREVAILING FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
SOLID MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WILL CONTINUE FOR NE FL/SE GA BEACHES IN
THE SE/ONSHORE FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SURF/BREAKERS MAINLY IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. HIGH RISK OF RIPS AND
POTENTIAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
STRONG NE WIND SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW INLAND MIN RH VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY
AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION POSSIBLE SATURDAY OVER INLAND
- SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA, CONTINUING THE DRY, SUNNY, AND
VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS,
COMBINED WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL/EXTREME DROUGHT, WILL CONTINUE THE
ELEVATED FIRE RISK ACROSS THE AREA. CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES
INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH AFTERNOON LOWERING TO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S INTO SATURDAY. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL STEADILY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR THE GULF
SEABREEZE TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND AND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE STAYING
CLOSER TO THE COAST. DISPERSIONS REMAIN IN THE GENERALLY GOOD RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGH DISPERSIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA MAINLY NORTHWEST OF US HIGHWAY 84. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WEEK AS A COOL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING ABOUT A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE
TO WEST AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY INLAND FOG WILL DEVELOP EACH
MORNING THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED "SUPERFOG"
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS NEAR THE VICINITY OF ANY SMOKE FROM
ONGOING WILDFIRES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES:
APRIL 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967
APRIL 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967
APRIL 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967
APRIL 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 60 92 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 64 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 60 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 61 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 57 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 58 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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