743
FXUS62 KJAX 171159
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
759 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. DRY & NEAR RECORD WARMTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND EACH
DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INCREASE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
- CRITICAL WILDFIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY
- GUSTY COASTAL & HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE WINDS AND WILL REMOVE FOG WORDING THIS MORNING IN THE
UPDATE. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL REST OF TODAY WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS AND CUMULUS. LOOKING AT RECORD HIGH TEMPS WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S, WITH THE COASTAL LOCATIONS
ESCAPING THE 90S AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
COASTAL HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AIRMASS REMAINS
DRY WITH PWATS BELOW 1 INCH PER LATEST GOES19 IMAGERY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE WILDFIRE RISK WITH DEEP MIXING TODAY
WITH MIXING HEIGHT TO ABOUT 8 KFT. SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR
THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH FOR INLAND AREAS WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 90F
- ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK
- FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG I-75
NEAR CALM WINDS THIS EVENING WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG INLAND
LOCATIONS, WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF DENSE FOG NEAR THE I-75 CORRIDOR,
WITH PATCHY "SUPERFOG" POSSIBLE NEAR SMOKE FROM ANY ONGOING
WILDFIRES.
CLEAR SKIES, DRY WEATHER, AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FL PENINSULA TO END
THE WORK WEEK. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH,
WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF BREEZE TO PUSH TOWARDS INLAND LOCATIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHILE THE ATLANTIC BREEZE PUSHES TOWARDS THE I-
95 CORRIDOR. CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS LIKELY TO GET NEAR OR BREAK RECORD HIGHS AS MUCH OF THE
INLAND LOCATIONS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE ATLANTIC
BREEZE WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR COASTAL LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. BY THE EVENING HOURS, LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
- FOG POTENTIAL EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY INLAND
- DRY & WARM WEATHER PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD HIGHS
- CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND EACH DAY
SATURDAY, STACKED RIDGING RETURNS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE FL PENINSULA WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING
BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZE TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER DEEPENING
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OZARKS AND MID TO UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS WILL REACH
NEAR RECORD LEVELS SATURDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG AND WEST
OF I-95 WITH MID 80S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO BREEZY SE FLOW OFF THE
WATERS BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE. LIGHT SW WINDS 8-12 MPH
WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE SEABREEZE 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH
ALONG THE BEACHES TO THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO
15-20 MPH BEHIND THE GULF SEABREEZE ACROSS I-75 AND US-441/221
OVER WESTERN SE GA. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WINDS DO NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF SE GA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE LOWEST, FALLING BELOW 25 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT, SW WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 MPH ACROSS SE GA AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WITH WINDS LIGHTER ACROSS NE FL
5 MPH OR LESS. THE LIGHTER FLOW FROM THE SW OFF THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR I-75
WITH PATCHY "SUPERFOG" POSSIBLE NEAR SMOKE FROM ANY ONGOING
WILDFIRES.
SUNDAY, A DEEPER MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH, PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO SE GA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN THROUGH NE FL SUNDAY EVENING. STILL
APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A WIDELY ISOLATED T'STORM OVER SE GA AND THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT
NO WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING, INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH
AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH, THEN TURNING NORTHWESTERLY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. APPEARS THE DRIEST AIR WILL
LAG ENOUGH TO PREVENT A NEED FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AS
WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE, BUT CLOUDS AND AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW TO MID 60S PREVENT CRITICAL MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, BUT NOT
AS MUCH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER SE GA AND THE UPPER 80S FOR
MOST OF NE FL WITH NEAR 90 VALUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT
- CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY
MONDAY, THE REGION WILL BE AT THE BASE OF A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, ALLOWING STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL DELIVER A
VERY DRY AIRMASS INTO THE AREA WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
20S ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 MONDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE BREEZY NE WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL
WILDFIRE CONDITIONS AND IT IS LIKELY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
HOISTED BY SATURDAY FOR THIS INCREASING POTENTIAL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND THEN EAST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS FROM THE ENE TUESDAY WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS SE GA, BUT REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE COAST AND NE FL
AREAS, THEN DECREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND DAILY ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES OVER INLAND NE FL WITH
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON OVER INLAND
SE GA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS MONDAY BECOMING NEAR
NORMAL BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNINGS AND THEN RISE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL. BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTION POSSIBLE NEAR GNV AND VQQ
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS RETURN AROUND
13Z-14Z, WITH WINDS SHIFTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 17Z/18Z AT
SSI, CRG, AND SGJ. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE WIND SHIFT AT JAX ABOUT 22Z
AND 23Z-00Z FOR VQQ. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD 08Z-12Z SAT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE THE PREVAILING FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
SOLID MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WILL CONTINUE FOR NE FL/SE GA BEACHES IN
THE SE/ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SURF/BREAKERS MAINLY IN
THE 2-3 FT RANGE. HIGH RISK OF RIPS AND POTENTIAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN STRONG NE WIND SURGE BEHIND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW INLAND MINRH VALUES INLAND TODAY AND SATURDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA ON
SATURDAY AND MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
- CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY, CONTINUING THE
DRY, SUNNY, AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL/EXTREME DROUGHT, WILL CONTINUE THE
ELEVATED FIRE RISK ACROSS THE AREA. CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES
INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH AFTERNOON LOWERING TO THE LOW TO MID 20S
OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FL TO
LOWER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST TODAY AND SATURDAY. EAST AND GULF
SEABREEZE WILL MEET NEAR HIGHWAY 301 TODAY WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE
PUSHING FURTHER INLAND SATURDAY TO US-17 AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
STRUGGLES TO REACH I-95 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSIONS WILL BE
IN THE GOOD RANGE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS
SATURDAY BRINGING HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA,
BUT WINDS DO NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
SATURDAY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WEEK AS A COOL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING VERY BREEZY, BUT CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO PREVENT MINRH
VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME. NOT EXPECTING
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THE COLD FRONT. MONDAY, VERY BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS AND WELL BELOW CRITICAL MINRH VALUES AROUND 15-20
PERCENT WILL CREATE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS WITH A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH LIKELY TO BE ISSUED BY SATURDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY INLAND FOG WILL DEVELOP EACH
MORNING INTO THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
"SUPERFOG" NEAR THE VICINITY OF ANY SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILDFIRES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES:
APRIL 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967
APRIL 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967
APRIL 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 61 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 86 66 86 68 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 93 61 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 88 63 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 93 59 94 62 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 92 61 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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