126
FXUS62 KJAX 172306
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
706 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY FOG SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL. PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL EACH MORNING THIS WEEKEND
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. DRY & NEAR RECORD WARMTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND EACH
DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INCREASE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SET FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA
- GUSTY COASTAL & HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT:
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY
- ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK
- PATCHY, SHALLOW FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT, NORTHEAST FL
CLEAR SKIES, DRY WEATHER, AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FL PENINSULA TO END
THE WORK WEEK. A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH, WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF BREEZE TO PUSH TOWARDS INLAND
LOCATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WHILE THE ATLANTIC BREEZE PUSHES
INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES WILL
LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR HOT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY TO GET NEAR OR BREAK
RECORD HIGHS AS MUCH OF THE INLAND LOCATIONS WILL RISE TO THE LOWER
TO MID 90S. THE ATLANTIC BREEZE WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR COASTAL
LOCATIONS RELATIVELY COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S. BONE DRY OUT THERE
WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS MUCH AS 40 DEG. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG INLAND LOCATIONS, WHILE COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S.
PATCHY, SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST FL LATE TONIGHT AS
GULF FLOW FROM THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BRINGS IN SOME SHALLOW
MOISTURE. INSTANCES OF FOG LOOKS TO BE MORE ISOLATED THAN THE PRIOR
COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- PATCHY FOG NE FL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
- CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND SE GA SATURDAY
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LARGELY DRY. BEST
CHANCE FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE OVER SE GA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT, THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE EXITING FRONT AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED WINDS, ESPECIALLY AND GUSTY WINDS AT THE COAST. A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK TROUGHS MOVING ASHORE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
-ELEVATED AND GUSTY COASTAL WINDS MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY MONDAY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE CORE OF THE ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE OVER NE FL, WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS AT THE COAST.
THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
RECOVER TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD 08Z-12Z
SAT BUT CONFIDENCE AND DURATION ARE UNCERTAIN, IF ANY FORMATION
DOES OCCUR IT WOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO INLAND LOCATIONS.
LIGHT WINDS RETURN AROUND 13Z/14Z.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH UP TO
15 KNOTS. A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS FOLLOWS
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WILL CONTINUE FOR AREA BEACHES PRIMARILY DUE
TO THE EASTERLY SWELLS OF ABOUT 2 TO 2.5 FT WITH PERIODS OF 8
SECONDS. A SMALL WINDOW OF WIND WAVE ACTION EACH DAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTN. THE
SWELLS DON'T CHANGE APPRECIABLY NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO A MODERATE
RISK WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH RISK OF RIPS AND
POTENTIAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
STRONG NE WIND SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
-INLAND MINRH LEVELS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT NORTH OF INTERSTATE
10 SATURDAY
-INLAND MINRH LEVELS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH MINRH LEVELS BELOW 20 PERCENT OVER INTERIOR SE GA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
-AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME INLAND DISPERSIONS SATURDAY
-WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
OUTSIDE OF A MAINLY DRY FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON SUNDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
THIS PERIOD WITH DRY PATTERN CONTINUING.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL NE FL TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS LOOK A LITTLE LIGHT FOR A RED FLAG OVER
INTERIOR SE GA SATURDAY, BUT CLOSE. SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET OVER INTERIOR NE FL ON MONDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES:
APRIL 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967
APRIL 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967
APRIL 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 93 62 83 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 66 85 68 84 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 61 92 65 89 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 63 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 58 93 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 59 92 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ021-030-031-035-136-220-236-422-522.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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