946
FXUS62 KJAX 180633
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY FOG SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL. PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL EACH MORNING THIS WEEKEND
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. DRY & NEAR RECORD WARMTH
INTO THE WEEKEND. CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND EACH
DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INCREASE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SET FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA
- GUSTY COASTAL & HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
- DRY & WARM WEATHER PERSIST WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
INLAND LOCATIONS
- CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND SE GA SATURDAY
- ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY CLEAR THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST, WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS
INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS FLIRTING ONCE AGAIN WITH RECORD
HIGHS, WHILE THE SOUTHEAST ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
WITH WINDS OF 8-12 MPH, WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF BREEZE TO PUSH WELL
INLAND, KEEPING THE ATLANTIC BREEZE MOSTLY CONFINED ALONG LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OF CONCERN FOR ANY ONGOING FIRE OR NEW
FIRES THAT MAY DEVELOP AS GUSTS ALONG THE SEA BREEZES RANGE FROM 15-
20 MPH.
BY THE EVENING HOURS, LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG INLAND
LOCATIONS, WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING INLAND
- CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND EACH DAY
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 OVER INLAND
NE FL
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY.
SUNDAY, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE STATES,
PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO SE GA BY MIDDAY AND INTO NE FL DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND ONLY A WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER LAND, BUT ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING MAY SHIFT ONTO THE FLAGLER COUNTY COAST, BUT
OTHERWISE NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. THE WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY
LATE MORNING, INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH AND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH,
THEN TURNING NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THE
DRIEST AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER
INLAND SE GA, BUT STILL VERY QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A NEED FOR A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH ON SUNDAY AS WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE AROUND 15 MPH GUSTING
TO 25 MPH, BUT THE DURATION FOR MUCH DRIER HUMIDITY LEVELS UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE VERY SHORT, IF AT ALL, BEFORE SUNSET
AS WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO WELL UNDER RED FLAG CRITERIA.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, BUT LESS SO WITH LOW TO MID 80S
OVER SE GA AND THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NE FL
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE SOUTHERN ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WESTWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL FL.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN BREEZY
FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TURNING NE INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT EXITS SOUTH OF THE AREA. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE EASTWARD IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN FL THAT WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW WITH NE WINDS 15-20 MPH OVER MUCH OF NE FL
GUSTING TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND 25 MPH INLAND. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE AREA WITH VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 MONDAY
MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON AND INTO THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST, YIELDING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO 15-20 PERCENT OVER INLAND SE GA
AND 20-25 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 OVER NE FL.
THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY NE WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS AND A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE WESTERN DUVAL,
WESTERN NASSAU, AND CLAY COUNTIES WESTWARD INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND ECHOLS COUNTY IN SE GA.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND I-95 WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES INLAND NEAR I-75
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS INLAND SE GA WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50, ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG THE COAST INTO THE LOW 60S, AND NEAR NORMAL OVER NE FL
WITH MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
-DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK
-CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND EACH DAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. WINDS FROM THE ENE
TUESDAY WILL DIMINISH ACROSS SE GA, BUT REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE
COAST AND NE FL AREAS. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH EAST TO SE FLOW
PREVAILING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAILY ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
PUSHING WELL INLAND EACH DAY. DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES OVER INLAND NE FL WHILE INLAND
SE GA WILL HAVE CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
VFR THIS EVENING. LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD 08Z-12Z, WITH ANY
FORMATION CONFINED MAINLY ALONG INLAND LOCATIONS. LIGHT WINDS RETURN
AROUND 13Z/14Z. INLAND MOVEMENT OF SEA BREEZES WILL BRING AN UPTICK
IN WINDS FOR THE TAF SITES AROUND 17Z FOR COASTAL SITES, A BIT PAST
20Z/21Z FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS. A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN A SURGE
OF NORTHEAST WINDS FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY, MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
MODERATE RISK OF RIPS WILL CONTINUE FOR AREA BEACHES PRIMARILY DUE
TO THE EASTERLY SWELLS OF ABOUT 2 TO 2.5 FT WITH PERIODS OF 8
SECONDS. A SMALL WINDOW OF WIND WAVE ACTION TODAY AS THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
SUNDAY DUE TO OFFSHORE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH RISK OF RIPS AND POTENTIAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN STRONG NE WIND SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10
AND ECHOLS COUNTY GEORGIA
-CRITICALLY LOW MINRH VALUES TODAY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
MUCH OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
-AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME INLAND DISPERSIONS TODAY
-NEAR CRITICAL MINRH VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA
-WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY MOSTLY SUNNY, AND
VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND COMBINED WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL/EXTREME
DROUGHT, WILL CONTINUE THE ELEVATED FIRE RISK ACROSS THE AREA.
CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TODAY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA 23-28 PERCENT AND 25-30 PERCENT OVER INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. THE EAST AND GULF SEABREEZE WILL MEET NEAR HIGHWAY US-17 BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH
DISPERSIONS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NEXT WEEK AS A COOL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING VERY BREEZY, BUT CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO PREVENT MINRH VALUES FROM
FALLING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS UNTIL NEAR SUNSET, LIMITING POTENTIAL
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MONDAY, VERY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND
WELL BELOW CRITICAL MINRH VALUES 15-20 PERCENT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS
WILDFIRE CONDITIONS WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WEST OF JACKSONVILLE AND INCLUDING CLAY,
WESTERN DUVAL, WESTERN NASSAU, AND ECHOLS COUNTY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY INLAND FOG WILL DEVELOP EACH
MORNING INTO THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
"SUPERFOG" NEAR THE VICINITY OF ANY SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILDFIRES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES:
APRIL 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967
APRIL 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 63 82 48 / 0 0 10 0
SSI 85 68 85 58 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 93 65 90 56 / 0 0 10 10
SGJ 88 66 89 63 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 93 62 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 92 63 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-232-
236-322-422-425-522.
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR GAZ162.
MARINE...NONE.
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