552
FXUS62 KJAX 190630
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES. CRITICALLY LOW
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND EACH DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT INCREASE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SET FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA ALONG/SOUTH
OF I-10
- GUSTY COASTAL & HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LIKELY BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
- CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND SE GA
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TODAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE SE STATES. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL RANGE FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARD OF 25-30 MPH. ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERNS REMAIN AS EVEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS COASTAL SE GA AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, BUT
CHANCES REMAIN LOW. A GRADIENT OF DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY AS LOCATIONS
IN SE GA WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S, WHILE NE FL WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO BE FROM THE NE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS NE FL, WHILE SE GA WILL BE
COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 OVER INLAND NE FL ON
MONDAY
- CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND EACH DAY
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY
MONDAY, THE BASE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
OF THE SE US COAST WITH RIDGING ALOFT MOVE INTO THE REGION IN IT'S
WAKE, WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE EXITING COLD
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL CREATE STRONG ONSHORE NE WINDS 15-20 MPH
OVER MUCH OF NE FL GUSTING TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND 25 MPH
INLAND. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BRINGING VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE MID 20S ACROSS INLAND SE GA DURING THE DAY
AND INTO THE 30S JUST INLAND OF THE COAST WHICH, IN TURN, WILL
CREATE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA ABOUT 20-25 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 301
OVER INLAND NE FL. FOR THESE LOCATIONS, THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL HIGHLIGHT A
THREAT OF DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF INLAND SE GA BEGINNING 8AM MONDAY
THROUGH SUNSET.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND I-95 WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES INLAND NEAR I-75
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT, LOW LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND BELOW NORMAL LOWS
DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF INLAND SE GA AND INLAND
NE FL WITH LOW 50S ALONG I-95 AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AND VALUES CLOSER
TO NORMAL IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST.
TUESDAY, STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MOVE ONTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER MD/VA SLOWLY WORKING TO THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND
THE SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL BRING ENE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW 10-15 MPH
GUSTING TO 25 MPH FROM THE BEACHES TO I-95 AND AND 8-15 MPH INLAND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH. LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER SW GA AND THE FL
PANHANDLE, WITH DRY, SUBSIDENT AIR LOWERING HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND
TO CRITICAL LEVELS, ELEVATING WILDFIRE RISK. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL ALONG I-95 IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AND MID 70S AT
THE COAST TO ABOVE NORMAL INLAND IN THE LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
-DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK INTO FRIDAY
-ISOLATED T'STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
-WARMING TREND THIS PERIOD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON SATURDAY. DAILY SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL BRING THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WELL INLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE COAST WORKING
INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES OVER INLAND NE FL WHILE INLAND SE GA WILL HAVE
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NW, KEEPING THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PINNED NEAR I-95. ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL FORM IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG HEATING, INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
FROM SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS AS THE GULF SEABREEZE MOVES WELL
EASTWARD TOWARDS I-95.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY BY 13Z AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY AS A FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. BREEZY TO GUSTY ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z, WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
COASTAL SITES.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY
THE MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN A SURGE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE
ELEVATED WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO OFFSHORE WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH RISK OF RIPS AND
POTENTIAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN
STRONG NE WIND SURGE BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
-CRITICALLY LOW MINRH VALUES TODAY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
MUCH OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
-AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME INLAND DISPERSIONS TODAY
-NEAR CRITICAL MINRH VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA
-WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS AFTER SUNRISE TURNING NORTHWESTERLY AND VERY BREEZY MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH, BUT CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPEAR WILL PREVENT MINRH VALUES FROM
FALLING TO CRITICAL LEVELS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUNSET,
LIMITING THE RISK FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MONDAY, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH VERY BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND WELL BELOW CRITICAL MINRH
VALUES 15-20 PERCENT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS AND A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR ALL OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
IN ADDITION TO NORTHEAST FL LOCATIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. THE BREEZY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
CREATE HIGH DISPERSIONS MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING AND CRITICAL MINRH VALUES OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA EACH DAY THIS WEEK. BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
TUESDAY WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY WITH DAILY ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVING
WELL INLAND INTO FRIDAY WITH EAST SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW. HIGH
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED DAILY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO HIGH MIXING
HEIGHTS AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PROGRESSION.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY INLAND THIS MORNING WILL
DEVELOP NEAR I-75. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED "SUPERFOG"
NEAR THE VICINITY OF ANY SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILDFIRES
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES:
APRIL 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 77 47 79 46 / 20 0 0 0
SSI 84 59 73 54 / 20 10 0 0
JAX 88 56 77 50 / 20 10 0 0
SGJ 89 63 75 57 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 88 56 81 48 / 10 10 0 0
OCF 88 59 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-232-
236-322-422-425-522.
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ452-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ474.
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