408
FXUS62 KJAX 201314
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
914 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FL AND. COMBINATION OF
LOW HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
PRACTICE WILDFIRE PREVENTION AND AVOID ACTIVITIES WITH OPEN FLAMES OR
SPARKS
- FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY. BREEZY WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM
HUMIDITY MONDAY AFTERNOON
- GUSTY COASTAL & HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN
EFFECT TODAY FOR ALL AREA BEACHES
UPDATE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. TODAY'S MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
STRONG WINDS CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ERRATIC WILDFIRE
BEHAVIOR FOR THE ACTIVELY BURNING WILDFIRES ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA.
ANY NEW IGNITIONS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD RAPIDLY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE FL WHERE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SMOKE GENERATED FROM THE AREA WILDFIRES IS IMPACTING PARTS OF THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF US-17 DUE THE LARGE (4,000
ACRE) PINELAND ROAD FIRE IN CLINCH COUNTY, GA AND THE CREWS ROAD
COMPLEX NEAR THE CLAY AND PUTNAM COUNTY LINE. POOR AIR QUALITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY AND DOWN WIND FROM THESE LARGE
FIRES.
ALONG WITH THE WINDS, THE COOLER AND VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH PEAK TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 INLAND AROUND IN THE LOW 70S AT THE COAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GA AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WEST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER
- CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES INLAND
- ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WITH GUSTY AND HAZARDOUS COASTAL CONDITIONS
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED TO NEAR I-4 OVER CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS AM AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
10-15 MPH OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AND I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH AT THE BEACHES AS THE HIGH WEDGES DOWN THE GA AND
CAROLINA COAST. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH CLOSER TO THE COAST AND 8-12 MPH WEST
OF HIGHWAY 301.
TODAY, THE BASE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF
THE SE US COAST WHILE STRONG RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH, CONTINUING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NW AND COLD FRONT EXITING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE FL PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN FL. THE GRADIENT WILL CREATE STRONG
ONSHORE NE WINDS PICKING UP AFTER 8AM TO DUE TO STRONG MIXING 15-20
MPH OVER NE FL AND AROUND 15 MPH OVER SE GA LOCATIONS. GUST WILL BE
UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE NE FL COAST/JOHNS RIVER AND GUSTING TO 25 MPH
ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WILL DELIVER VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS THE MID 20S ACROSS INLAND SE GA DURING THE DAY
AND INTO THE 30S JUST INLAND OF THE SE GA COAST WHICH, IN TURN, WILL
CREATE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND LOW TO MID 40
ALONG AND WEST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND SEND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 20-25 PERCENT FROM US-17 WESTWARD. AS A
RESULT OF THE VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED WINDS, DANGEROUS
WILDFIRE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FOR INLAND SE GA AND INLAND NE FL
WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8AM TO 8PM. AFTER
SUNSET, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL
RAISE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS ON TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE COAST AND I-95 WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S, WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES INLAND TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.
TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
WITH LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF INLAND SE GA
AND INLAND NE FL WITH LOW 50S ALONG I-95 AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AND
VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID 50S ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST WITH
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR INLAND NE FL ON TUESDAY
- CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES FOR INLAND LOCATIONS INTO
MIDWEEK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION, BRINGING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SEVERE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST AS PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
ON TUESDAY WILL STEADILY TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING BREEZY, GUSTY AT TIMES,
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ACROSS INLAND NE FL AND COASTAL LOCATIONS,
WHICH WILL DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS OF NE FL.
BY WEDNESDAY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AS WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ONSHORE ACROSS THE COAST AND TOWARDS THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. BUT CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS OF SE GA AND ALONG THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION.
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, DAYTIME HIGHS ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S, WHILE AWAY FROM THE COAST DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER/MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S, WITH SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
-DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WORK WEEK
-ISOLATED T'STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
-WARMING TREND THIS PERIOD
WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT SHIFTING OFFSHORE FROM MIDWEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ONCE
AGAIN PAST MIDWEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING RECORD HIGHS DURING
THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL SEE LITTLE RELIEF ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY, BUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AS PWATS MAY SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK. GUIDANCE
SHOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND,
BUT QUESTION REMAINS TO SEE IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA TO HAVE ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME CURRENTLY
HAVE A FORECAST POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT, WITH THE SEA BREEZES
PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEGUN AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND WILL
MIX TO THE SURFACE AT INLAND TERMINALS BY 14Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 21Z, WITH GRADUAL EASING THROUGH SUNSET THIS
EVENING. BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z, LOCALIZED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND
30 KNOTS IS EXPECTED AT KJAX/KGNV/KVQQ. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. LOFTED SMOKE GENERATED BY EXISTING OR NEARBY WILDFIRES
MAY IMPACT APPROACHES FOR INLAND AIRFIELDS.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WATERS INTO MID-WEEK. EASTERLY
WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
WATERS THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SURF BREAKERS UP TO 4-6 FEET. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICALLY LOW MINRH VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
- MUCH OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH MIDWEEK
- AREAS TO WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND CRITICAL MINRH
VALUES 15-20 PERCENT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GA IN
NORTHEAST FL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. ADDITIONALLY THE
BREEZY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH DISPERSIONS
TODAY. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS INLAND
NE FL ON TUESDAY, CONTINUING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY FOR THE
INLAND LOCATIONS OF NE FL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY WITH DAILY
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVING WELL INLAND INTO FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AND CRITICAL MINRH VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL EACH DAY THIS WEEK. AREAS TO WIDESPREAD
HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED DAILY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY
DUE TO HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS AND MODERATE TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED "SUPERFOG" NEAR THE VICINITY OF ANY SMOKE FROM ONGOING
WILDFIRES
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 78 47 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 73 54 75 62 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 76 51 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 75 57 78 60 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 80 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 80 50 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ021-023-
024-030-031-035-120-132-136-137-140-220-225-232-236-237-
240-322-340-422-425-522.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ023-030-031-132-136-137-140-225-232-236-
237-240-340-425.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ132>136-
149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ452-
454-470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ474.
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