574
FXUS62 KJAX 210637
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
237 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FL
- COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL CREATE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS
- PRACTICE WILDFIRE PREVENTION AND AVOID ACTIVITIES WITH OPEN FLAMES
OR SPARKS
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
- DANGEROUS WILDFIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
INLAND NORTHEAST FL
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY OVER SOUTHEAST GA
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN VA SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL AL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DRY SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION AND CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S WEST OF I-95
AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER WITH 50S AT THE COAST WHERE WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY, BUT WINDS
ARE CALM INLAND.
TODAY, VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED UNDER INITIALLY SUNNY SKIES AND
ALONG WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN WILL CREATE BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ONSHORE, THEN PUSHES WELL INLAND BRINGING BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS 12-18 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH WESTWARD TO HIGHWAY 301
BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND ALONG I-10 INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
BY MID AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS INLAND SE GA 6-12 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH, BUT A BIT HIGHER ALONG THE SE GA COAST AS THE
SEABREEZE FIRST MOVES ONSHORE 10-15 MPH GUSTS 25 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE COAST INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S BY THE MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, EFFECTIVELY DRYING
OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE DRIER LOCATIONS FROM 10AM UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT AND
ELEVATED WINDS FROM THE SEABREEZE WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS WILDFIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY FOR INLAND NE FL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE ST JOHNS
RIVER AND ALSO WEST OF US-17 NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RECOVER AT 8PM.
TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN GA AND
WHILE SOME INCREASE IN THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM
OVER THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF A APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, DECOUPLING
WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WEST OF I-95, BUT
WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES FOR INLAND SE GA
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CRITICALLY DRY
CONDITIONS REMAINING ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS OF SE GA. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST, WHILE WINDS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS WILL
BE LIGHTER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE EXCEPTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MOVES. THE CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, ACROSS THE COAST
AND TOWARDS THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP PAST MIDWEEK WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, DAYTIME HIGHS ALONG THE
COAST EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AWAY FROM THE COAST
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MID 80S WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS HIGHS RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S, WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS IN
THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
-DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WORK WEEK
-SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
-WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, BUT AN
APPROACHING FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND MAY BRING
ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS PRIMARILY ALONG INLAND LOCATIONS OF SE GA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN TOWARDS THE COAST BY THE EVENING HOURS. SUNDAY, SCATTERED
CHANCES SPREAD TO MOST OF THE AREA, WILL LOWERING CHANCES BY MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD ON SATURDAY,
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S.
TEMPERATURES TREND A BIT COOLER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WILL MOVE ONSHORE 16-17 AT SSI AND SGJ AND PUSH
THROUGH THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS 17-19Z AND GNV BY 20Z WITH BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS 12-15 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18-23 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE BY AROUND 00Z WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASING ALOFT.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TONIGHT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION OVER
THE OFFSHORE FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LAND BREEZE. WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DURING THE DAYTIME'S
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS
TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SURF BREAKERS UP TO 4-6 FEET. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICALLY LOW MINRH VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
- MUCH OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH MIDWEEK
- AREAS TO WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS INLAND
NORTHEAST FL, BRINGING RED FLAG CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR THESE
LOCATIONS, WITH ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR
THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS CRITICAL MINRH
VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL EACH
DAY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW TO LESSEN MIDWEEK, BUT STILL ALLOW FOR THE DAILY INLAND PUSH OF
THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE. AREAS TO WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS
ARE EXPECTED DAILY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
AND MODERATE TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED "SUPERFOG" NEAR THE VICINITY OF ANY SMOKE FROM ONGOING
WILDFIRES
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 50 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 78 59 77 62 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 83 52 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 79 58 78 60 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 86 51 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 85 52 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ023-024-030-031-035-132-136-137-140-225-
232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page