423
FXUS62 KJAX 212332
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
732 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FL. COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
PRACTICE WILDFIRE PREVENTION AND AVOID ACTIVITIES WITH OPEN FLAMES OR
SPARKS. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY
- ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
- DANGEROUS WILDFIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
INLAND NORTHEAST FL
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY OVER SOUTHEAST GA
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS BREEZY WINDS COUPLED WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS RESULT IN AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR THE
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES, WITH SEVERAL FIRES ONGOING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. SPREADING SMOKE ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES IS EXPECTED TO TURN
INLAND, AWAY FROM COASTAL COUNTIES, AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES ONSHORE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MILD AND VARIABLE IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR INLAND AREAS AND IN THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COASTLINE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER INLAND AREAS AND IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S FOR AREAS NEARER TO THE SHORE.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- DENSE SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WILDFIRE LOCATIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST, WHILE WINDS
OVER INLAND LOCATIONS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE MOVES. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. NEAR
CALM WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL HELP
ORGANIZE DENSE SMOKE NEAR WILDFIRE LOCATIONS AND DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED. SOME PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL,
BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND DENSE SMOKE WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD THIS PERIOD.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW, DAYTIME HIGHS ALONG THE COAST
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AWAY FROM THE COAST
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MID 80S WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL SEE
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS HIGHS RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S, WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS IN
THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
-DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST ON FRIDAY
-SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
-ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK CONTINUES DUE TO ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY,
BUT AN APPROACHING FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TO
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. BEST RAINFALL CHANCES WILL
BE ACROSS SE GA, WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED,
BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS AS THEY MOVE INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE ISOLATED STORMS AND POTENTIAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL CONTINUE THE ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK AS NEW
STARTS COULD BE THE RESULT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SINCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED AND OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS NE FL AND ONLY IN
THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE ACROSS SE GA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND EXPECT
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER INLAND AREAS, EVEN SOME NEAR 90F
READINGS ON SATURDAY AND TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AROUND 80F
WILL EXIST CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND
POTENTIAL FOR A SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY IF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SITES DOWNWIND OF BURNING WILDFIRES, WHICH CAN REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING SUBSIDE TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 06Z. DEPENDING ON THE STATE OF WILDFIRES
OVERNIGHT, SMOKE-BASED RESTRICTIONS CAN REFORM OVER SSI AND
JACKSONVILLE METRO SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 15Z AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS WELL INLAND.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. DAILY AFTERNOON EAST-SOUTHEAST
WIND SURGES IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL JUST NORTH OF
THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND SURF BREAKERS UP TO 4-6 FEET. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK
IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICALLY LOW MINRH VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
- MUCH OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH MIDWEEK
- AREAS TO WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS INLAND
NORTHEAST FL, BRINGING RED FLAG CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN FOR THESE
LOCATIONS, WITH ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR
THE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS CRITICAL MINRH
VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL EACH
DAY THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW TO LESSEN MIDWEEK, BUT STILL ALLOW FOR THE DAILY INLAND PUSH OF
THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE. AREAS TO WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS
ARE EXPECTED DAILY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
AND MODERATE TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS. LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WHICH COULD PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING STARTED WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED "SUPERFOG" AND/OR DENSE SMOKE NEAR THE VICINITY OF ANY
ONGOING WILDFIRES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES:
APRIL 25: JAX 92/1958, CRG 91/2006, GNV 93/1896, AMG 91/1958
APRIL 26: JAX 92/2011, CRG 91/1989, GNV 93/1908, AMG 93/1986
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 53 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 62 77 63 79 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 55 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 60 79 61 80 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 53 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 54 83 58 85 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ023-024-
030-031-035-132-136-137-140-225-232-236-237-240-322-340-
422-425-522.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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