002
FXUS62 KJAX 221331
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
931 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND
BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
- PRACTICE WILDFIRE PREVENTION AND AVOID ACTIVITIES WITH OPEN
FLAMES OR SPARKS. SMOKE WILL CAUSE UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CHECK
AIRNOW.GOV FOR CURRENT LEVELS.
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES NEARLY AREA-WIDE
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY OVER INLAND SE GA & SUWANNEE VALLEY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS (PWATS 0.5-0.7 IN) CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE WILL SHIFT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING BREEZY SE
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL SPREAD SMOKE ASSOCIATED WITH LOCAL
WILDFIRES TO THE NNW GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS AND I-95 CORRIDOR. CRITICAL
HUMIDITIES ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND SE GA
AND SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH MIN RHS IN THE LOW/UPPER 20S.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST TO THE LOW-MID 80S INLAND. WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. NEAR CALM WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL HELP ORGANIZE DENSE SMOKE NEAR
WILDFIRES AND DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.
SMOKE FROM LOCAL WILDFIRES HAS LOWERED THE AIR QUALITY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY. MONITOR AIRNOW.GOV FOR CURRENT AIR
QUALITY INDEX LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- DENSE SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WILDFIRE LOCATIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT ESE OF THE GA/SC
COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. WEAK SE FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL PREVAIL, BUT ONLY MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE UP TO 0.80
TO 1.00 INCH EXPECTED OF PRECIPITABLE WATER (NUDGING UP TO AROUND
THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY) IS EXPECTED AS WEST TO
NW FLOW FROM 10.0 KFT UP INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS KEEPS DRY,
SUBSIDENT AIR OVER THE REGION AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED
OVER INLAND SE GA DURING THE DAY. THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WILL PUSH
WELL INLAND BEFORE MERGING WITH THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE NEAR I-75
OVER NE FL WITH WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-10, BUT
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW LOW LEVEL CUMULUS IN THE DIURNAL HEATING
BECOMING MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID 80S INLAND NE FL AND MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
INLAND SE GA BECOMING AND COOLER APPROACHING THE COAST WITH UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES AT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
THURSDAY NIGHT, SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING
SOUTHERLY AND REMAINING 5-10 MPH WHILE WINDS BECOME CALM INLAND.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE LOW 60S AT THE
COAST. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP, BUT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD, BUT
RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND STABLE AIR WILL ALLOW DENSE SMOKE TO
PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF WILDFIRES, WHICH MAY REQUIRE A DENSE
SMOKE ADVISORY WHERE CALM WINDS LEAD TO STAGNATE CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL FURTHER TO THE EAST WITH NET SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZE TO BOTH
REACH HIGHWAY 301 BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS) WILL
REACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AROUND 1.00-1.10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-10 OVER NE FL. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AT THE
COAST.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID
60S AT THE COAST WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS 4-8 MPH ALONG THE COAST
BECOMING CALM INLAND. ONCE AGAIN. DENSE SMOKE MAY PERSIST IN THE
VICINITY OF WILDFIRES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
-SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
-ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK CONTINUES DUE TO ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
SATURDAY, DECREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALOFT WILL ALLOW
A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, INCREASING MOISTURE, AND
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CREATING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T'STORMS
OVER SE GA ALONG WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH. SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT, SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
T'STORMS.
SUNDAY, A WAVE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SINKS IN SE GA PROVIDING EXTRA LIFT OVER THE AREA
AND SCATTERED T'STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS
SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES WORK INLAND FROM THE COAST. AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE T'STORMS. MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL EXTEND IN
NORTHEAST FL, BUT AGAIN SHOULD BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN
TOTAL.
MONDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WEAKENING AND ALLOWING BOTH SEABREEZES TO
DEVELOP AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. TUESDAY, A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WITH A STRONGER FRONT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ONE INCH ACROSS SE GA, BUT
CURRENTLY IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND 14Z THIS MORNING AT SGJ AND GNV DUE TO SMOKE AND/OR
HAZE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS AFTER 14Z THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z THURSDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 14Z, FOLLOWED BY SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BY 16Z AT THE SSI AND SGJ
COASTAL TERMINALS, WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS AFTER 18Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL THEN
PROGRESS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE INLAND TERMINALS BY 22Z.
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERATED BY THIS INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
SPEEDS AFTER 01Z TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AS SMOKE AND HAZE INCREASES ACROSS
OUR AREA.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH RIDGING LINGERING ACROSS AREA WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. DAILY AFTERNOON EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND SURGES IN THE WAKE
OF THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS SHIFT
TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS.
THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS AND SURF:
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
DAILY SURGE OF SE WINDS AND SURF OF 2-4 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS TODAY FOR INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GA
- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
- WIDESPREAD HIGH DISPERSIONS ON SATURDAY
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA WITH DRY FUELS AND MIN RH VALUES BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
(MIN RH BELOW 30 PERCENT) FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FL AND INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA (MIN RH BELOW 25 PERCENT) SUPPORTING ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS.
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY
WITH CRITICALLY LOW MINRH VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND
PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FL. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW, BUT STILL ALLOW FOR THE DAILY
INLAND PUSH OF ATLANTIC SEABREEZE. AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME
DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED DAILY INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY DUE TO HIGH
MIXING HEIGHTS AND MODERATE TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS. LIMITED
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH COULD PROVIDE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHTNING STARTED WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED "SUPERFOG" AND/OR DENSE SMOKE NEAR THE VICINITY OF ANY
ONGOING WILDFIRES. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER INLAND NORTHEAST
FL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES:
APRIL 25: JAX 92/1958, CRG 91/2006, GNV 93/1896, AMG 91/1958
APRIL 26: JAX 92/2011, CRG 91/1989, GNV 93/1908, AMG 93/1986
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 77 62 80 62 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 82 57 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 78 60 80 61 / 0 0 10 0
GNV 83 55 86 57 / 0 0 10 0
OCF 83 57 85 58 / 0 0 20 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page