712
FXUS62 KJAX 221854
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
254 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- PRACTICE WILDFIRE PREVENTION AND AVOID ACTIVITIES WITH OPEN
FLAMES OR SPARKS. SMOKE WILL CAUSE UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CHECK
AIRNOW.GOV FOR CURRENT LEVELS.
- EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES NEARLY AREA-WIDE
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND
BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
- DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY THROUGH 10 PM FOR CLINCH & ECHOLS
COUNTIES. SMOKE WILL CAUSE UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CHECK
AIRNOW.GOV FOR CURRENT LEVELS
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1026
MILLIBARS) CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. ALOFT...A
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WAS
TRAVERSING OUR REGION, PROVIDING A VEIL OF MOSTLY MID AND HIGH
ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOISTURE LEVELS
WERE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL,
WHERE PWAT VALUES WERE CLIMBING TO AROUND 1 INCH, WHICH HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUMULUS FIELD. A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE PWATS WERE
AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND A FLATTER CUMULUS FIELD EXITS FROM THE
OKEFENOKEE SWAMP SOUTHWARD TO THE FL/GA BORDER. INTENSE AND
GROWING WILDFIRES WERE NOTED ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER ECHOLS AND CLINCH COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GA
(PINELAND ROAD WILDFIRE, WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE ALMOST 16,500
ACRES AS OF EARLIER THIS MORNING) AS WELL AS THE HIGHWAY 82
WILDFIRE JUST EAST OF THE SATILLA RIVER IN EASTERN BRANTLEY
COUNTY (ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 5,000 ACRES EARLIER THIS
MORNING). MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS WAS KEEPING INLAND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF 19Z,
WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY FALLING THROUGH THE 40S, EXCEPT
LOWER 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. ONSHORE WINDS AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS WERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S AS
OF 19Z, WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE FILLING OVERNIGHT, MOVING
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER
WILL THIN OUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, AND SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TOO SCANT TO PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VIRGA FROM
THE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WILL BE SMOKE, HAZE, AND POSSIBLY SOME RADIATION FOG
THAT MAY OVERSPREAD A LARGE PORTION OF OUR REGION DURING THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE LOCALIZED NEAR THE LARGER ONGOING
WILDFIRES, BUT AIR QUALITY IS LIKELY TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE. AS A REMINDER - PLEASE MONITOR
AIRNOW.GOV FOR CURRENT AIR QUALITY INDEX LEVELS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW INLAND LOWS
TO FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 50S, RANGING TO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY & WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- DENSE SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WILDFIRE LOCATIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION. A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DIURNALLY EACH DAY, THOUGH ONLY
MARGINALLY IMPROVING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN
CHANCES. HI RES GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND BOTH THURSDAY &
FRIDAY, THOUGH THESE CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST GIVEN THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND PWATS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AIR QUALITY/SMOKE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
OVER INLAND GA WHERE TWO OF THE LARGEST ACTIVE WILDFIRES
PERSIST. SMOKE AND AIR QUALITY CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HIGHEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DAILY AS
WINDS DIE DOWN AND SMOKE SETTLES. THANKFULLY, FOG POTENTIAL FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNINGS IS LOW AT THIS TIME, THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY PATCHY FOG AND "SUPERFOG" NEAR ANY
ACTIVE WILDFIRES.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE DAILY, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
MOSTLY MID 80S THURSDAY WILL BUMP INTO THE UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY.
NEAR/EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY
ELEVATE TO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
-SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR SE GA
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
-ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK CONTINUES DUE TO ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO OVERALL BE MORE ACTIVE AS COMPARED
TO THE LAST WEEK OR SO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY, STALLING NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES,
PROGRESSING ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA SOMETIME AROUND
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MORAL OF THE STORY WILL BE THAT
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS WELL AS T'STORM POTENTIAL
WILL GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MORE ACTIVE PERIOD
AS THE COOL FRONTS WEAKEN AND LOSE PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE AS WELL AS A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY
ALOFT WILL BRING AT LEAST PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM EVEN INTO NORTHEAST FL, POSSIBLY ENHANCED
BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE AS TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH
AROUND 05Z THURSDAY. SMOKE AND POTENTIALLY SOME POCKETS OF FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE PREDAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH
TO INDICATE PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES AT VQQ BEGINNING AROUND
07Z AS MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO EXIT OUR
REGION. CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS, MAINLY
AFTER 09Z. THESE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 14Z AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS, WITH MVFR OR POSSIBLY
LOWER VISIBILITIES AT SSI DUE TO SMOKE AND HAZE POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 16Z. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
SHOULD THEN PUSH SMOKE AND HAZE INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE SSI
TERMINAL BY 17Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL TREND TO AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 21Z, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY AFTER 00Z WITH DIMINISHING
SPEEDS. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP
AFTER 13Z, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO EASTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 17Z THURSDAY AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY
SATURDAY EVENING, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THIS FRONT STALLS NEAR THE GEORGIA WATERS.
THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH OUR LOCAL WATERS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WHERE ONSHORE
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN EACH AFTERNOON, WITH SURF HEIGHTS OF 2-4
FEET. A MODERATE RISK IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE
SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS TODAY FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FL
AND SOUTHEAST GA
- PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
- PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SATURDAY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS APPROACHING 10 KFT INLAND WILL RESULT IN
PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT DAILY WITH RESPECT TO MINIMUM DAYTIME RH
AREA-WIDE, THOUGH STILL AVERAGING IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE
INLAND AND TOWARDS 40 TO 50% CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH VERY DRY
FUELS REMAINING IN PLACE. THE NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, THOUGH UNFORTUNATELY BRINGING
T'STORM CHANCES AS WELL.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOW
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS, THOUGH ANY VERY PATCHY FOG
THAT DOES FORM COULD RESULT IN VERY LOCALIZED "SUPERFOG".
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES:
APRIL 25: JAX 92/1958, CRG 91/2006, GNV 93/1896, AMG 91/1958
APRIL 26: JAX 92/2011, CRG 91/1989, GNV 93/1908, AMG 93/1986
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 53 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 59 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 55 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 58 79 61 82 / 0 10 0 10
GNV 55 86 57 88 / 0 10 0 10
OCF 55 85 59 87 / 0 10 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ162-
163.
MARINE...NONE.
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