421
FXUS62 KJAX 222320
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
720 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY DUE. PRACTICE WILDFIRE PREVENTION AND AVOID ACTIVITIES WITH
OPEN FLAMES OR SPARKS. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES
NEARLY AREA-WIDE
- DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY FOR CLINCH &
ECHOLS COUNTIES. SMOKE WILL CAUSE UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CHECK
AIRNOW.GOV FOR CURRENT LEVELS
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE (1026 MILLIBARS)
CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. ALOFT...A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WAS TRAVERSING
OUR REGION, PROVIDING A VEIL OF MOSTLY MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOISTURE LEVELS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE PWAT VALUES WERE
CLIMBING TO AROUND 1 INCH, WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CUMULUS FIELD. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE PWATS WERE AROUND 0.75 INCHES AND A FLATTER
CUMULUS FIELD EXITS FROM THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP SOUTHWARD TO THE FL/GA
BORDER. INTENSE AND GROWING WILDFIRES WERE NOTED ON VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER ECHOLS AND CLINCH COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GA (PINELAND ROAD WILDFIRE, WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE
ALMOST 16,500 ACRES AS OF EARLIER THIS MORNING) AS WELL AS THE
HIGHWAY 82 WILDFIRE JUST EAST OF THE SATILLA RIVER IN EASTERN
BRANTLEY COUNTY (ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 5,000 ACRES EARLIER THIS
MORNING). MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS WAS KEEPING INLAND TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF 19Z, WHERE DEWPOINTS
WERE GENERALLY FALLING THROUGH THE 40S, EXCEPT LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FL. ONSHORE WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS WERE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S AS OF 19Z, WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE 50S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHILE FILLING OVERNIGHT, MOVING
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN OUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, AND
SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO SCANT TO
PRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VIRGA FROM THE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BIG CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE SMOKE, HAZE, AND POSSIBLY
SOME RADIATION FOG THAT MAY OVERSPREAD A LARGE PORTION OF OUR REGION
DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE LOCALIZED NEAR THE LARGER ONGOING WILDFIRES,
BUT AIR QUALITY IS LIKELY TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS
DECOUPLE. AS A REMINDER - PLEASE MONITOR AIRNOW.GOV FOR CURRENT AIR
QUALITY INDEX LEVELS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW INLAND LOWS TO FALL TO THE LOW AND MID 50S, RANGING TO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY & WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY
- DENSE SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WILDFIRE LOCATIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION. A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DIURNALLY EACH DAY, THOUGH ONLY MARGINALLY
IMPROVING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES. HI RES GUIDANCE
DOES HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AS THE SEA
BREEZE MOVES INLAND BOTH THURSDAY & FRIDAY, THOUGH THESE CHANCES ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AND THEREFORE HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND PWATS GENERALLY
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIR
QUALITY/SMOKE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND
GA WHERE TWO OF THE LARGEST ACTIVE WILDFIRES PERSIST. SMOKE AND AIR
QUALITY CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DAILY AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND SMOKE SETTLES.
THANKFULLY, FOG POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNINGS IS
LOW AT THIS TIME, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY PATCHY FOG AND
"SUPERFOG" NEAR ANY ACTIVE WILDFIRES.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE DAILY, ESPECIALLY INLAND WHERE
MOSTLY MID 80S THURSDAY WILL BUMP INTO THE UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY.
NEAR/EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY
ELEVATE TO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
-SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR SE GA
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
-ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK CONTINUES DUE TO ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO OVERALL BE MORE ACTIVE AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST WEEK OR SO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH GA SATURDAY, STALLING NEAR THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES, PROGRESSING
ANOTHER FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA SOMETIME AROUND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE MORAL OF THE STORY WILL BE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL AS WELL AS T'STORM POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE MORE ACTIVE PERIOD AS THE COOL FRONTS WEAKEN
AND LOSE PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE
AS WELL AS A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL BRING AT LEAST PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM EVEN INTO
NORTHEAST FL, POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 05Z. SE
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING CALM OVERNIGHT. SMOKE AND
POTENTIALLY SOME POCKETS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY BRINGING AT
LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES. LOWER RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI,
SGJ, VQQ AND GNV DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ONGOING WILDFIRES.
THESE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND AND BLOWS SMOKE TOWARD THE WNW.
ESE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE AFTER
18Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SINK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THIS FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
GEORGIA WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH OUR LOCAL WATERS TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN EACH AFTERNOON, WITH SURF HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FEET. A MODERATE
RISK IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS TODAY FOR INLAND NORTHEAST
- FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
- PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
- PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SATURDAY
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ELEVATED MIXING
HEIGHTS APPROACHING 10 KFT INLAND WILL RESULT IN PATCHY HIGH
DISPERSIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT DAILY WITH RESPECT TO MINIMUM DAYTIME RH AREA-WIDE,
THOUGH STILL AVERAGING IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE INLAND AND
TOWARDS 40 TO 50% CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH VERY DRY FUELS REMAINING
IN PLACE. THE NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THOUGH UNFORTUNATELY BRINGING T'STORM CHANCES AS WELL.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOW OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS, THOUGH ANY VERY PATCHY FOG THAT DOES FORM
COULD RESULT IN VERY LOCALIZED "SUPERFOG".
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES:
APRIL 25: JAX 92/1958, CRG 91/2006, GNV 93/1896, AMG 91/1958
APRIL 26: JAX 92/2011, CRG 91/1989, GNV 93/1908, AMG 93/1986
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 53 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 59 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 55 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 58 79 61 82 / 0 10 0 10
GNV 55 86 57 88 / 0 10 0 10
OCF 55 85 59 87 / 0 10 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ162-163.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page