027
FXUS62 KJAX 230639
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
239 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND
BREEZY WINDS. PRACTICE WILDFIRE PREVENTION AND AVOID
ACTIVITIES WITH OPEN FLAMES OR SPARKS. EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONTINUES NEARLY AREA-WIDE
- DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY THROUGH NOON THURSDAY IN CLINCH & ECHOLS
COUNTIES. SMOKE WILL CAUSE UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY CHECK
AIRNOW.GOV FOR CURRENT LEVELS
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
- DENSE SMOKE EXPECTED NEAR LARGE WILDFIRES
- MONITOR AIRNOW.GOV FOR CURRENT AIR QUALITY INDEX LEVELS.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD GRADUALLY WEAKENS
THROUGH TONIGHT. CALM WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE SMOKE
FROM LOCAL WILDFIRES TO SETTLE CLOSE TO THE GROUND IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOCALIZED NEAR THE LARGER
WILDFIRES BUT UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY PERSISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE
GA. DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR CLINCH AND ECHOLS COUNTIES
DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE EXPANSIVE PINELAND ROAD FIRE (~29,600 ACRES).
WILL MONITOR SMOKE FROM THE OTHER MAJOR WILDFIRES IF THE DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED. SMOKE WILL BEGIN TO DISPERSE IN THE
LATE MORNING AS SE WINDS DEVELOP. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING BREEZY ESE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WILL SPREAD SMOKE ASSOCIATED WITH LOCAL WILDFIRES TO THE WNW
GENERALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS GRADUALLY
INCREASED TO THE AREA WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 0.8-1 IN. BUT LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WINDS DECOUPLE ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT WORSENING VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY FROM SMOKE.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW-MID 80S FURTHER INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
-DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY
-DENSE SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR WILDFIRE LOCATIONS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, ALLOWING GULF AND ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE TO PROGRESS TO HIGHWAY 301 BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS OF
BETWEEN 1.0-1.20 INCHES AND SUPPORT WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS
WELL SOUTH OF I-10. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 INLAND COOL DOWN TO THE LOW 80S AT THE COAST.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 INLAND AND THE
LOW TO MID 60S AT THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN AT THE
COAST 4-8 MPH BECOMING CALM INLAND. POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR DENSE
SMOKE IN THE VICINITY OF ACTIVE WILDFIRES.
SATURDAY, WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT STILL APPEARS TO SLOW
DOWN AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF IT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
T'STORMS OVER SE GA ONTO PORTIONS OF NE FL CLOSE TO I-10 ALONG WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF NEAR A QUARTER INCH WITH NO RAIN
FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
T'STORMS DUE TO WEAK SHEAR.
LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND ENERGY ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T'STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP LOWS MILD IN THE LOW
60S INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
-SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
-ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK CONTINUES DUE TO ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
SUNDAY,SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
SINKS INTO SE GA PROVIDING EXTRA LIFT OVER THE AREA LEADING TO
SCATTERED T'STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES WORK
INLAND FROM THE COAST. AN INCREASE IN SHEAR FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST
WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE T'STORMS. MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL EXTEND IN NORTHEAST FL, BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
MONDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WEAKENING AND ALLOWING BOTH SEABREEZES TO FORM AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT.
TUESDAY, A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS
FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TOO SOON FOR CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL
TOTALS AND LOCATIONS, BUT HIGH END GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UP TO AN INCH
OF RAIN COULD OCCUR IF STRONGER T'STORMS MATERIALIZE.
WEDNESDAY, THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND WHETHER IT LIFTS NORTH OR REMAINS
STATIONARY ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T'STORMS WITH WEST TO WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW LIKELY PINNING THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
SMOKE AND POTENTIALLY SOME POCKETS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BRINGING AT
LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES. LOWER RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI,
SGJ, VQQ AND GNV DUE TO THEIR CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ONGOING WILDFIRES.
THESE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND AND BLOWS THE SMOKE TOWARD THE
WNW. ESE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE
AFTER 17Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SINK INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY SATURDAY EVENING, WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THIS FRONT STALLS NEAR THE
GEORGIA WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH OUR LOCAL WATERS TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK AT THE AREA BEACHES, WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH SURF HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
-ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
-CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY
-AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY
-WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SATURDAY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH DRY FUELS AND MIN RH VALUES
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
ALL OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA CREATING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN
EASTERLY BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PASSAGE AS IT MOVES TO I-75
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS AND MODERATE TRANSPORT
WINDS CREATING AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY FRIDAY WITH CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH
VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FL.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA, SOUTHERLY FLOW TURNS
SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE
SHIFTING INLAND TO HIGHWAY 301 WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS BEHIND. AN
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CREATE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY OVER THE AREA
WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PINNED NEAR I-95. TRANSPORT WINDS A
LITTLE HIGHER AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS LEAD TO HIGH DISPERSIONS AGAIN
SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T'STORMS ON SATURDAY
WITH BRING A WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS NEAR I-10. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY FROM T'STORMS COULD PROVIDE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING STARTED WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: DENSE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST ACROSS CLINCH AND ECHOLS COUNTY DUE TO THE PINELAND RD
WILDFIRE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY BETWEEN US HIGHWAY 84 AND STATE
HIGHWAY 94. A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR
CLINCH AND ECHOLS COUNTY. THREAT FOR DENSE SMOKE MAY CONTINUE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF WILDFIRES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES:
APRIL 25: JAX 92/1958, CRG 91/2006, GNV 93/1896, AMG 91/1958
APRIL 26: JAX 92/2011, CRG 91/1989, GNV 93/1908, AMG 93/1986
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 86 56 88 60 / 0 0 10 0
SSI 79 64 82 64 / 0 0 10 0
JAX 83 59 88 60 / 0 0 10 0
SGJ 79 61 84 62 / 0 0 10 0
GNV 85 57 89 58 / 0 0 10 0
OCF 85 58 87 60 / 0 0 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR GAZ162-163.
MARINE...NONE.
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