250
FXUS62 KJAX 071138
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
738 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
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- RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF U.S.-301 IN NORTHEAST &
NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY & ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ELSEWHERE DUE TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS & ONGOING DROUGHT
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACT AREA: LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. MAIN HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES & ISOLATED TORNADOES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL
FL
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301 THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, NEAR CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES, AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
- SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TODAY.
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR AND THE REST OF SOUTHEAST GA.
OVERNIGHT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND COASTAL TEXAS. ALOFT...STOUT RIDGING EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA, WITH TROUGHING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES CREATING FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH THAT WAS PROPELLING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD
ACROSS MS AND AL. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES, WITH A
CUTOFF TROUGH SPINNING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT PWATS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 1 - 1.25 INCH RANGE
ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH HIGHER VALUES OF 1.5 - 1.75 INCHES LOCATED
JUST UPSTREAM FROM OUR AREA ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN
GA. A CIRROSTRATUS SHIELD EMANATING FROM WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN AL AND CENTRAL GA HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL, WITH THINNER CIRRUS NOTED ELSEWHERE. LOWER
STRATUS CEILINGS WERE OTHERWISE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
SUWANNEE VALLEY BENEATH THE THINNER CIRRUS SHIELD. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE OF 5-10 MPH AT MOST LOCATIONS WAS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS OUR AREA AT
07Z, EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE.
TROUGHING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY, WHICH WILL SERVE TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN THE STOUT RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND FL PENINSULA. FAST ZONAL FLOW IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL PROPEL THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD
ACROSS GA THIS MORNING, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTING ACROSS THE OZARKS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE, A 140-KNOT JET STREAK BASED
AT 250 MILLIBARS (AROUND 35,000 FEET) WILL BECOME ORIENTED ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WHICH WILL
INCREASE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST GA TODAY. COLD POOLS
EMANATING FROM CLUSTERS OF ONGOING STRONG CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL GA
AND SOUTHERN AL SHOULD PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
OCMULGEE, ALTAMAHA AND ALAPAHA RIVERS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH
STRONG TO ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-
60 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES THIS MORNING FOR LOCATIONS WEST
OF WAYCROSS IN INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. JUST ENOUGH HELICITY MAY BE IN
PLACE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO FORM WITHIN ANY SUPERCELLS THAT
CROSS INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOW
STRATUS CEILINGS MAY EXPAND ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT UPSTREAM THICKER CIRROSTRATUS SHOULD PREVENT DENSE
FOG FORMATION.
OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THINNING
CIRRUS BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301 THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOOST HIGHS TO THE
MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S (SEE "CLIMATE" SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS
ON RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY). FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH, DEWPOINTS
CRASHING TO AROUND 60 THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL CREATE NEAR
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES, AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR THESE AREAS,
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AS WELL AS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA,
WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE NOON
TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DEWPOINTS MIX OUT DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE EXITS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. HOWEVER, DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE DECELERATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, FEATURING PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES, WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEAST GA AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ML CAPE VALUES MAY RISE
TO AROUND 1,500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND A LINGERING 40-45 KNOT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
PUSH A BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE OR CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND POSSIBLY THE I-10
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MORE STABLE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING OVER THE
FL PENINSULA BY SUNSET. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCREASED
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO "SLIGHT" (LEVEL 2
OUT OF 5) FOR AREAS FROM LAKE CITY TO WAYCROSS AND POINTS WESTWARD,
WITH A "MARGINAL" RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) REMAINING IN PLACE TODAY
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN STRONGER STORMS THAT WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE EXPECTED BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION THAT WILL BE
TRAVERSING SOUTHEAST GA AND POSSIBLY THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.
COLD POOLS COULD PUSH CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WANE ACROSS OUR AREA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA AFTER MIDNIGHT, REACHING THE FL/GA BORDER TOWARDS
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. A NORTHERLY BREEZE AND COOL AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL DROP LOWS TO THE LOWER 60S
BY AROUND SUNRISE ON FRIDAY FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA, WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE DECELERATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD, WHERE MULTI-LAYERERED CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED SHOWER/T'STORM CHANCES FRIDAY, MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY
THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING MORE OF AN ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AS WELL AS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE LOW CHANCES (UNDER 15%) OF ANY SHOWERS AND T'STORMS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL BEING AREAS FURTHEST
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND. ELSEWHERE, ONLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S NORTH OF ABOUT I-
10, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SOUTH DESPITE SOME OF THE HIGHER CLOUD
COVER.
MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THROUGHOUT SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED T'STORMS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY COULD
BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER INLAND GA, WITH THESE "WAVES" OF
RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION SPREADING FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL. HIGHEST COVERAGE AS WELL AS QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE,
WHICH COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 0.5-0.75 IN SOME AREAS DURING THE
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WILL TREND CLOSER TO
THE 0.25-0.5 RANGE FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FL. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
WILL BE SIMILARLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK
- DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PERSISTING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T'STORMS BEFORE A STRONGER BOUNDARY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY. THIS COULD
RETURN HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS MONDAY, BUT
ALSO HAVE ENOUGH MOMENTUM FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND INTO MID WEEK. DRIER AND "COOLER"
CONDITIONS RELATIVE TO THE TIME OF YEAR THEREFORE WILL BE LIKELY
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AFTER A WETTER AND
GENERALLY WARMER FORMER HALF.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 19Z. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FILL IN BY MID-MORNING
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING FRONT, KEEPING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PINNED
CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST. CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE DUVAL SITES, BUT MAINTAINING PROB30S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NOW. GNV AND SGJ WILL LIKELY STAY CLEAR, WITH SSI
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY, VISIBILITIES ARE LOW AT SSI LIKELY DUE TO NEARBY WILDFIRE
SMOKE.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT WILL
SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT APPROACHES OUR LOCAL WATERS ON
FRIDAY. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP CAUTION
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS MAINLY THE GEORGIA
WATERS, WHERE STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT, STALLING BY FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH AN INCREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY. A ROUND OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WELL IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH
CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS:
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS AND A FADING
SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL YIELD A LOW RISK AT AREA BEACHES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY CREATING A LOWER
END MODERATE RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WITH LOW SURF HEIGHTS
AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES LIKELY KEEPING THE RISK LOW. AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY MAY KEEP A LOWER END MODERATE RISK
IN PLACE AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, AND PREVAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REDUCE THE RISK BACK TO LOW AT
AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY
- AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER NORTHEAST FL SATURDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-60 MPH. HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY, WITH BREEZY WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN AS LOW AS ABOUT 30 PERCENT POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF HWY 301. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAINED PINNED NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST, AND THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT
WIND SHIFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, EXCEPT IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND T'STORMS.
BREEZY TRANSPORT WINDS AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
HIGH DISPERSIONS AS WELL.
THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY THEN STALL OVER
NORTHEAST FL, PROVIDING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK USHERING IN A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY INLAND FOG IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR OR NORTH OF ABOUT I-10.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES FOR TODAY:
THU, MAY 7:
JAX: 94/1977
CRG: 94/1977
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 93/1962
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 85 62 79 61 / 70 30 0 40
SSI 87 66 78 69 / 50 40 0 40
JAX 95 70 86 67 / 30 30 0 30
SGJ 97 72 84 70 / 10 20 10 20
GNV 92 72 92 69 / 10 20 30 20
OCF 91 72 92 70 / 0 20 20 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ024-038-124-125-132-137-138-140-225-232-233-237-325-
333-425-433-533-633.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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