894
FXUS62 KJAX 071616
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1216 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF U.S.-301 IN NORTHEAST &
NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY & ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ELSEWHERE DUE TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS & ONGOING DROUGHT
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. MAIN IMPACT AREA: LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. MAIN HAZARDS: WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES & ISOLATED TORNADOES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR NORTHEAST FL
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- RED FLAG WARNING FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301 THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, NEAR CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES, AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MAIN HAZARDS ARE WIND GUSTS
OF 40-60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
HEAVY CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA NOT UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP TO NEAR-RECORD
BREAKING, WITH EVEN THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING HIGHS IN THE 90S DUE
TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PINNING THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. HOT
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER OVER MOST OF THE REGION, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING STILL
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN
EASTWARD. PULLED BACK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AS ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL ALL MORNING HAS LIMITED HEATING.
CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONGER STORMS LIKELY MOVING INTO THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA MID-AFTERNOON, WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL
BE. PRIMARY HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WINDS OF 40-60 MPH AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS EVENING, TRENDS ARE LEANING TOWARDS
WEAKENING STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE REST OF NORTHEAST FL.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT AFTER SUNSET NEAR I-10 AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CALM AFTER SUNSET AS WELL, AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. VERY MILD LOW
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TONIGHT, LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH
OF I-10.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ISOLATED SHOWER/T'STORM CHANCES FRIDAY, MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING MORE OF AN ONSHORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS
WELL AS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
LOW CHANCES OF ANY SHOWERS AND T'STORMS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL BEING AREAS FURTHEST SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHES
INLAND. ELSEWHERE, ONLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AND COOLER BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY WITH PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S NORTH OF ABOUT I-10, WITH UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S SOUTH DESPITE SOME OF THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER.
MID LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE ACTIVE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED T'STORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MORE NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER INLAND GA,
WITH THESE "WAVES" OF RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION SPREADING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. HIGHEST COVERAGE AS WELL AS
QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE, WHICH COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 0.5-1.0" IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WILL
TREND CLOSER TO THE 0.25-0.5 RANGE FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FL. HIGH
TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILARLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH AND
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT
SITUATION, ALTHOUGH WITH SOME MORE HEATING EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NE FL ON SATURDAY, A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER NEAR THE REGION ON SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, PERSISTING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS
BEFORE A STRONGER BOUNDARY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY. THIS COULD RETURN HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS MONDAY, BUT ALSO HAVE ENOUGH
MOMENTUM FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND INTO MID WEEK. DRIER AND "COOLER" CONDITIONS RELATIVE TO
THE TIME OF YEAR ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, BEFORE A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AS DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT WILL SLOW
ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT APPROACHES OUR LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP CAUTION CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS MAINLY THE GEORGIA WATERS, WHERE STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT, STALLING
BY FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AN INCREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. A ROUND OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WELL IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS LIKELY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS:
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS AND A FADING
SOUTHEASTERLY OCEAN SWELL WILL YIELD A LOW RISK AT AREA BEACHES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN NORTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY CREATING A LOWER
END MODERATE RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WITH LOW SURF HEIGHTS
AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES LIKELY KEEPING THE RISK LOW. AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY MAY KEEP A LOWER END MODERATE RISK
IN PLACE AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, AND PREVAILING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY MAY REDUCE THE RISK BACK TO LOW AT
AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON
- HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER NORTHEAST FL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40-60 MPH. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DOWN AS LOW AS 30 PERCENT POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF HWY
301. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINED PINNED NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST, AND THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFTS ARE NOT EXPECTED,
EXCEPT IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND T'STORMS. BREEZY TRANSPORT WINDS AND HIGH
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS AS WELL.
THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN STALL OVER
NORTHEAST FL, PROVIDING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK USHERING IN A PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY INLAND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND SUWANNEE VALLEY OF
INLAND NORTH FL. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR NORTH OF ABOUT I-10.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NE FL/SE GA CLIMATE SITES FOR TODAY:
THU, MAY 7:
JAX: 94/1977
CRG: 94/1977
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 93/1962
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 85 62 79 61 / 70 30 0 40
SSI 87 66 78 69 / 50 40 0 40
JAX 95 70 86 67 / 30 30 0 30
SGJ 97 72 84 70 / 10 20 10 20
GNV 92 72 92 69 / 10 20 30 20
OCF 91 72 92 70 / 0 20 20 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ024-038-
124-125-132-137-138-140-225-232-233-237-325-333-425-433-
533-633.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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