081
FXUS62 KJAX 080821
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
421 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40-60
MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.+
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
- BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR LOCAL WATERS. AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED AT
AREA BEACHES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- ONGOING EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
DRY FUELS & DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE WILDFIRE RISK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR. STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40-60
MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
- BENEFICIAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT THAT WAS
SLOWING ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FL/GA BORDER. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE (1018
MILLIBARS) WAS BUILDING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALOFT...FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION AS
TROUGHING PIVOTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND RIDGING OVER CUBA AND
SOUTH FL FLATTENS. OTHERWISE, A PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WAS SLOWLY APPROACHING
WEST TEXAS. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER MOISTURE WAS
LOCATED ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT, WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1.8
INCHES POSITIONED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. A DRIER AIR
MASS WAS ADVECTING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHERE PWATS WERE FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE
AREA- WIDE. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 08Z WERE FALLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS IN
SOUTHEAST GA AS COOL AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES, WITH LOW TO MID 70S
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. EXTENSIVE SMOKE EMANATING FROM THE LARGE
"SOUTH CANAL" WILDFIRE IN SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY, FL SEEMS TO
HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS
TROUGHING PIVOTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND EXITS ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIME REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SUPPORT FOR THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS
PUSHING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING, AND THE FRONT SHOULD
STALL NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
FL TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING SOME
ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST
FL THIS MORNING, WE EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL BLOSSOM OVER THE
U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY EXPANDING
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, ALONG WITH BULK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SPEED
SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS AND ML CAPE VALUES OF 1,000 - 1,500 J/KG
COULD RESULT IN A FEW PULSING STORMS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STRONGER STORMS BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL IN A
"MARGINAL" RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
THICKENING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 80
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS IN SOUTHEAST GA TODAY, WHILE A
BRIEFLY TIGHTENING LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATES BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST GA
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S ELSEWHERE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, EXCEPT UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
WILL GLIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON,
REACHING SOUTHEAST GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, PROVIDING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ELSEWHERE CLOSER TO THE STALLING FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP INLAND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, EXCEPT LOWER 70S
FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL, WHERE A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS & T'STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO NUDGE NORTHWARD FOR THE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY PERIOD WHILE ALSO BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE, INDUCING MORE OF
A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM, PERSISTING PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH
SOME EMBEDDED T'STORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES/COVERAGE
CONTINUING TO BE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10. SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
THE PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR TOWARDS THE I-95
CORRIDOR DIURNALLY EACH DAY AS WELL, CLOSER TO THE NEARLY
PINNED SEA BREEZE WITH THE MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS NORTHEAST FL. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE CONVECTION, THOUGH GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND SOME HIGHER ENERGY ALOFT, ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40-50MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH OF I-10 WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER AND PERSISTENT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE MILD - IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S - BOTH NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY MONDAY, WITH STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
- NEXT POTENTIAL COLD FRONT AROUND THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ROBUST LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT, IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY,
GIVING THIS BOUNDARY A PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE MOISTURE IN PLACE, NUMEROUS TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND T'STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON MONDAY, AND COULD RETURN
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS AS WELL. COOLER AND
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE POTENTIAL AROUND THE
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPS OVERALL WILL TREND "UP AND DOWN"
BEFORE AND AFTER THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES ACCORDINGLY, AVERAGING
OUT TO NEAR CLIMO.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS
MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT BEFORE 10Z AT THE DUVAL
COUNTY TERMINALS, WITH ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
THE GNV AND SGJ TERMINALS TOWARDS 12Z. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME. CEILINGS MAY LOWER AS THESE SHOWERS PASS THROUGH, WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AT
VQQ AND GNV AFTER 09Z, WITH CEILINGS ELSEWHERE AROUND 1,000 FEET
FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL THEN
LIFT BACK TO MVFR LEVELS BY 14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GNV TERMINAL AFTER 17Z, WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AND A
PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DURING POTENTIALLY HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS THROUGH AROUND 22Z. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
THIS MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD LATE THIS
WEEKEND, ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CROSSING OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
ON MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION LEVELS LATE ON
MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET BEFORE
WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS:
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL BECOME BREEZY, LIKELY CREATING A LOWER END MODERATE RISK
AT ALL AREA BEACHES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SATURDAY MORNING, DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE, WITH DECREASING SURF HEIGHTS YIELDING A LOW RISK AT AREA
BEACHES. LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD AGAIN RESULT IN A LOW RISK, WITH PREVAILING OFFSHORE
WINDS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO KEEP THE RISK LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL THIS WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND T'STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GA. AFTER ONLY FAIR
DISPERSIONS TODAY, BETTER MIXING AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT
IN GOOD TO PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST FL. FLOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS WELL AFTER A MORE
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
AND SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND T'STORMS AREA-WIDE MONDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS
BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT HAS SETTLED
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST FL THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DISPERSE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS FLOW DIRECTION SHIFTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 80 64 80 64 / 30 60 70 70
SSI 76 68 82 70 / 20 40 70 60
JAX 83 68 88 68 / 20 30 80 40
SGJ 81 71 90 71 / 50 20 60 20
GNV 86 68 89 70 / 70 30 20 20
OCF 88 69 90 71 / 60 20 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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