893
FXUS62 KJAX 081120
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
720 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
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HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL
FL. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 10. PRIMARY HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF
40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS & HAIL
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON & EVENING
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON
- ONGOING EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME DROUGHT. DRY FUELS & DROUGHT WILL
CONTINUE WILDFIRE RISK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
- BENEFICIAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT THAT WAS SLOWING
ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL/GA
BORDER. MEANWHILE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE (1018 MILLIBARS) WAS BUILDING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALOFT...FAST ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION AS TROUGHING PIVOTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND RIDGING OVER CUBA AND SOUTH FL FLATTENS. OTHERWISE, A PREVIOUSLY
CUTOFF TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WAS
SLOWLY APPROACHING WEST TEXAS. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT, WITH PWATS OF
AROUND 1.8 INCHES POSITIONED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. A
DRIER AIR MASS WAS ADVECTING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHERE PWATS WERE FALLING BELOW 1.5 INCHES
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS. A FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AREA-
WIDE. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT 08Z WERE FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS IN SOUTHEAST GA AS COOL
AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES, WITH LOW TO MID 70S PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.
EXTENSIVE SMOKE EMANATING FROM THE LARGE "SOUTH CANAL" WILDFIRE IN
SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY, FL SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS
TROUGHING PIVOTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND EXITS ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIME REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF SUPPORT FOR THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS PUSHING ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS MORNING, AND THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FL TONIGHT. MEANWHILE,
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST FL THIS MORNING, WE EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL
BLOSSOM OVER THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR IN NORTH CENTRAL FL
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY
EXPANDING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT, ALONG WITH BULK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SPEED
SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS AND ML CAPE VALUES OF 1,000 - 1,500 J/KG COULD
RESULT IN A FEW PULSING STORMS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10 THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH STRONGER STORMS BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURST
WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND POSSIBLY HAIL. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
MOST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL IN A "MARGINAL" RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THICKENING
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF WAYCROSS IN SOUTHEAST GA TODAY, WHILE A BRIEFLY TIGHTENING
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATES BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT WILL
KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST GA IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS,
EXCEPT UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHERE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL
GLIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON, REACHING
SOUTHEAST GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN
NORTH OF THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA,
PROVIDING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ELSEWHERE
CLOSER TO THE STALLING FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP INLAND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S,
EXCEPT LOWER 70S FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL, WHERE A LIGHT ONSHORE
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS & T'STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO NUDGE FURTHER NORTH FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PERIOD WHILE ALSO BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE, INDUCING MORE OF A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM,
PERSISTING PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED T'STORMS, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES/COVERAGE CONTINUING TO BE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-10.
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE PRECIP AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR
TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR DIURNALLY EACH DAY AS WELL, CLOSER TO THE
NEARLY PINNED SEA BREEZE WITH THE MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS NORTHEAST FL. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE CONVECTION, THOUGH GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SOME
HIGHER ENERGY ALOFT, ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40-50MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S NORTH OF I-10 WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
PERSISTENT PRECIP ACTIVITY TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SOUTH.
LOWS WILL BE MILD - IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S - BOTH NIGHTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY MONDAY
- DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
- NEXT POTENTIAL COLD FRONT AROUND THURSDAY/FRIDAY
A STRONGER COLD FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ROBUST LONGWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT, IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY, GIVING THIS
BOUNDARY A PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE, NUMEROUS TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS WILL
BE LIKELY ON MONDAY, AND COULD RETURN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
T'STORMS AS WELL. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER DRIER FRONTAL PASSAGE POTENTIAL
AROUND THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPS OVERALL WILL TREND "UP AND
DOWN" BEFORE AND AFTER THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES ACCORDINGLY, AVERAGING
OUT TO NEAR CLIMO.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS
AT VQQ AND GNV, WITH CEILINGS ELSEWHERE AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET
FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS WILL THEN LIFT BACK TO
MVFR LEVELS BY 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE GNV TERMINAL AFTER 17Z, WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH
TO INDICATE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AND A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS DURING POTENTIALLY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS THROUGH AROUND 22Z.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR AT NE FL TERMINALS IN THE 06-12Z
TIME FRAME.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS
MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS
TONIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD LATE THIS
WEEKEND, ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CROSSING OUR LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ON MONDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION LEVELS LATE ON MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
AROUND SUNSET BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY WHILE GRADUALLY
DECREASING ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS:
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
BECOME BREEZY, LIKELY CREATING A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA
BEACHES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY MORNING,
DELAYING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE, WITH
DECREASING SURF HEIGHTS YIELDING A LOW RISK AT AREA BEACHES. LIGHT
WIND SPEEDS AND LOW SURF HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD AGAIN RESULT IN A
LOW RISK, WITH PREVAILING OFFSHORE WINDS ON MONDAY EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE RISK LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER INLAND NE FL THIS WEEKEND
A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
T'STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST GA. AFTER ONLY FAIR DISPERSIONS
TODAY, BETTER MIXING AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN GOOD TO
PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
FL. FLOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY AS WELL AFTER A MORE ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. A STRONGER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T'STORMS AREA-WIDE MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT HAS SETTLED OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST FL THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DISPERSE LATER THIS
MORNING AS FLOW DIRECTION SHIFTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 80 64 80 64 / 30 60 70 70
SSI 76 68 82 70 / 20 40 70 60
JAX 83 68 88 68 / 20 30 80 40
SGJ 81 71 90 71 / 50 20 60 20
GNV 86 68 89 70 / 70 30 20 20
OCF 88 69 90 71 / 60 20 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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