585
FXUS62 KJAX 081615
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1215 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. TODAY: AFTERNOON & EARLY
EVENING NORTHEAST FLORIDA. WEEKEND & MONDAY: MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON & EVENING SE GA & NE FL. ISOLATED DAILY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
- EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES WILDFIRE RISK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLOWED TO NEAR STALLING
ACROSS NE FL, GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO PALM COAST
AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40-60 MPH, SMALL
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION BUT A FEW SUNNY BREAKS WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS WELL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AND GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TONIGHT: CONVECTION ACROSS NE FL SHOULD FADE AFTER SUNSET, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, THEN REFOCUSING ACROSS SE GA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHILE NE FL REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND UPPER 60S
INLAND NE FL AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER WEST TO EAST ACROSS NE FL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WAVES OF ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG
BOUNDARY, AND UPPER WAVES WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
ENTIRE WEEKEND, BRINGING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD LEAD
TO ENHANCED INSTABILITY. A SIGNIFICANT NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, DUE TO THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT, AND WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SLOWLY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY. A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY, WHILE
READINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FURTHER INLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL RESULT IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW. THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
PROMPTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE FL AS THIS GULF BREEZE
INTERACTS WITH THIS ONSHORE FLOW.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
MVFR TO LOWER VFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WHILE TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GNV TERMINAL AND
HAVE UPDATED TO TEMPO GROUP FOR GUSTY TSRA ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST
21Z THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE AFTER SUNSET, EXPECT LOWER IFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP AREA-WIDE ONCE AGAIN WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AS WELL,
MAINLY AT GNV/VQQ. HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES DEVELOP LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS INLAND SE GA/INLAND NORTH FL, BUT MAY NOT IMPACT THE
LOCAL TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 18Z ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY, BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN
PLACE AS A STATIONARY FRONT THIS WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION LEVELS LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY MONDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF ONLY 1-2
FEET THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF SOLID MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS NEXT TUESDAY WITH SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS NE FL THIS WEEKEND
- AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST ALONG
IT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
MID WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. EXCEPT FOR READINGS A
LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY NIGHT. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EACH DAY FOR A FEW MAINLY
AFTERNOON STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 63 79 66 83 / 70 80 60 80
SSI 69 79 70 80 / 60 90 50 80
JAX 68 85 69 86 / 40 80 40 80
SGJ 70 88 71 87 / 30 60 20 80
GNV 68 88 70 89 / 40 30 20 40
OCF 69 90 70 90 / 20 20 10 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page