788
FXUS62 KJAX 090556
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
156 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY DURING THE. ISOLATED
DAILY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS:
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS & LIGHTNING
- EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES WILDFIRE RISK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE JAX CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING PER WPC ANALYSIS, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED T'STORMS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS. ASIDE FROM SOME
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN ACROSS INLAND GA, HI RES GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO A BREAK IN ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING, BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST FL AROUND MIDDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE THEN LOOKS TO FILL IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED T'STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT AS THIS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE
NEARLY PINNED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH A MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW TODAY. BOTH LOW LEVEL AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG TODAY AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY, THOUGH WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE, ISOLATED STRONG TO
POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS ONCE AGAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/OR SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE WIND GUSTS OF 40+ MPH, THOUGH SOME
SMALL HAIL AND AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS WELL.
DESPITE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS, THE
MORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE MOSTLY INTO THE 80S,
WITH SOME READINGS NEAR 90 TOWARDS THE MARION/PUTNAM/FLAGLER
COUNTY AREA. MOST ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END LATE THIS EVENING
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT, ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/LIGHT
RAIN LINGERING THANKS TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD, IN THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & T'STORMS SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND
NORTHEAST FL
- STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY MONDAY
SUNDAY, WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FL/GA STATE LINE.
A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO WILL SWING ITS TROUGH AXIS EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A STREAM OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO OUR AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING INTO SOUTH FL WILL PROMOTE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
CONTINUE A FEED OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SW WINDS 5-
10 MPH WILL PUSH THE GULF SEABREEZE INLAND WHILE PINNING THE THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE EAST OF I-95. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
ALLOW ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING THAT COMBINED WITH THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T'STORMS. LESS
SHEAR OVERALL SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE T'STORMS, BUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
MOST COMMON RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH, BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE
STRONGER T'STORMS OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET DUE
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S OVER NE FL AND
NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER SE GA NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S OVER SE GA AND THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER NE FL DUE TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MONDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE TN
VALLEY, SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND GULF COAST TOWARDS OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG BROAD
SCALE LIFT AND ABOVE NORMAL PWATS 1.6-1.8 WILL CREATE NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND AN 1.0 TO 1.5
INCHES ACROSS SE GA WITH DECREASING TOTALS OF NE FL EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS FROM T'STORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, INCREASING
LOW LEVEL 850 MB WINDS UP TO 30-35 KNOTS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE T'STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS 40-60 MPH THE MAIN CONCERN.
BREEZY WSW WINDS 10-15 MPH GUSTING 20-25 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING WARM HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER NE FL WITH ISOLATED
LOW 90S ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WHILE SE GA HIGHS REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH AS
THE TROUGH AXIS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SLOWLY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH VERY BREEZY NE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN AS ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH, THIS ONE MORE COMPACT, DIVES ESE FROM THE UPPER
PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL TURN
MORE LIGHT AND EASTERLY WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVING WELL
INLAND. AN ISOLATED T'STORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL
WHERE STRONG HEATING AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA, BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS, BUT
NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY
AND WARM ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
SHRA AND TSRA ARE COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, IF NOT STARTING TO OCCUR
ALREADY AT SOME AIRFIELDS. AT LEAST TEMPO IFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS, WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO BECOME PREVAILING AT INLAND SITES
LIKE VQQ AND GNV WITH ADDED MOISTURE NEAR THE GULF AND CLOSE TO A
NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THOUGH WITH
AREAS OF MVFR PERSISTING LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHRA AND TSRA POTENTIAL INCREASES ONCE AGAIN. HAVE INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR TSRA GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE IN
OVERALL COVERAGE, WITH TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES FOR MORE NARROWED DOWN IMPACTS. AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS,
POSSIBLY IFR, WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AFTER RAIN/CONVECTION COVERAGE WANES LATE THIS
EVENING.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE WATERS TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE AS A STATIONARY
FRONT THIS WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
CAUTION LEVELS LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF ONLY 1-2 FEET.
NEXT CHANCE OF SOLID MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS NEXT
TUESDAY WITH SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS NE FL THIS WEEKEND
- AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND, WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST
ALONG IT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS, THEN BUILD EAST NORTHEAST MID WEEK.
AFTER ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. DISPERSIONS WILL BE HIGH TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASED TRANSPORT WINDS AND INCREASING MIXING
HEIGHTS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING NEAR THE I-
75 CORRIDOR OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA, BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 79 66 83 66 / 80 60 80 50
SSI 79 70 80 70 / 90 50 80 30
JAX 85 69 86 69 / 80 40 80 20
SGJ 88 71 87 71 / 60 20 80 10
GNV 88 70 89 71 / 30 20 40 10
OCF 90 70 90 70 / 20 10 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page