664
FXUS62 KJAX 091124
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
724 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- ISOLATED DAILY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. MAIN
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS: LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS & LIGHTNING
- EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES WILDFIRE RISK
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 18Z. ANTICIPATING LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHRA AND TSRA POTENTIAL INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.
HAVE INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR TSRA GIVEN THE
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-10, WITH
TEMPO GROUPS ADDED IN THE 12Z UPDATE FOR MORE CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF I-10. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE
A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNDOWN, BUT EXPECT LINGERING WIDELY
SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS NORTH OF I-10.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO THE WATERS TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE AS A STATIONARY
FRONT THIS WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
CAUTION LEVELS LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF ONLY 1-2 FEET.
NEXT CHANCE OF SOLID MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS NEXT
TUESDAY WITH SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS NE FL THIS WEEKEND
- AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST ALONG IT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS 40-60 MPH,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS, THEN BUILD
EAST NORTHEAST MID WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY.
DISPERSIONS WILL BE HIGH TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASED
TRANSPORT WINDS AND INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING NEAR THE I-
75 CORRIDOR OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA, BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 79 64 83 65 / 70 40 50 40
SSI 81 70 82 70 / 80 30 60 40
JAX 85 68 87 68 / 70 40 60 20
SGJ 87 71 88 71 / 50 30 60 10
GNV 87 69 89 69 / 40 20 50 10
OCF 89 70 90 71 / 20 10 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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