851
FXUS62 KJAX 091650
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1250 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- ISOLATED DAILY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. MAIN
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS: LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS & LIGHTNING
- EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES WILDFIRE RISK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF WAYCROSS AND ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE FL/GA BORDER THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T'STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MAIN IMPETUS OF FOCUS IS A SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN AREA FROM SOUTH
OF WAYCROSS TO JUST SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE CAPES WILL EXCEED 1000.
ALSO, IN THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTLINED AREA, A SHORT WAVE IS ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, ANOTHER AREA THAT
MAY BE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED BY A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SSW FLOW TODAY. A CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY SET UP THIS
VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
EMERGES NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTIES. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S, THE FRONT AND PASSING SHORT WAVE, AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/OR LATE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE WIND GUSTS OF 40+
MPH AND PERHAPS A SMALL HAIL PRODUCER WITH -10C A 500MB. THERE
ARE A FEW PROHIBITIVE FACTORS: A LITTLE DRY POCKET AT 800 MB,
LACK OF SHEER, AND ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER, ALBEIT IT IS THIN
CLOUD COVER. SOME AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE WHICH IS NEAR 90 DEGREES PER 12Z JAX UPPER AIR
FLIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED IN
WESTERN WARE COUNTY GEORGIA AT 1245 PM.
THERE WILL BE A BIG DISPARITY OF HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WAYCROSS NORTHWARD TO THE
ALTAMAHA, TO THE LOWER 90S TOWARD THE VILLAGES AND SOUTHERN FLAGLER.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL TEMPER MAXIMUMS
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA AND LESS CLOUD COVER AND MINIMIZED PRECIP CHANCES
WILL KEEP IT QUITE TOASTY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL.
MOST ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END LATE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY NIGHT, ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN LINGERING
THANKS TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD, IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & T'STORMS SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND
NORTHEAST FL
- STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY MONDAY
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON INTO SUNDAY
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY AS THE MOIST FLOW SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOWING MOIST AIR IN FROM OUT OF THE GULF TO WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED TO BE ENHANCED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH INTERMITTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES PASSING OVER THE REGION FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A COLD
FRONT PRESSING IN TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS BUILDING
IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND THEN BECOMING MORE MILD AND
VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SETTLES
IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH
CLEARING SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOLLOWING THE
FROPA ON TUESDAY WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS EXPERIENCING A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, MAX TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE LEVELS AFTER MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING (19Z TO 02Z) FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF I-10 WITH VCTS TO PROB30
SOUTH OF I-10 THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LESS
COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-10. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH POST
STORM STRATIFORM LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN FROM 02 TO 05Z MAINLY
FOR TERMINALS NORTH OF I-10. RAIN COVERAGE WANES LATE THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR
TERMINALS THAT GET LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHERE PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER WILL BE STATIONARY
THIS WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH
THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION LEVELS LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF ONLY 1-2 FEET.
NEXT CHANCE OF SOLID MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS NEXT
TUESDAY WITH SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS NE FL THIS WEEKEND
- AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS NEXT WEEK
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND, WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST
ALONG IT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS, THEN BUILD EAST NORTHEAST MID WEEK.
AFTER ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. DISPERSIONS WILL BE HIGH TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASED TRANSPORT WINDS AND INCREASING MIXING
HEIGHTS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN OCCUR IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 79 64 83 65 / 70 40 50 40
SSI 81 70 82 70 / 80 30 60 40
JAX 85 68 87 68 / 70 40 60 20
SGJ 87 71 88 71 / 50 30 60 10
GNV 87 69 89 69 / 40 20 50 10
OCF 89 70 90 71 / 20 10 20 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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