309
FXUS62 KJAX 092346
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
746 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY DURING THE. ISOLATED
DAILY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS:
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS & LIGHTNING
- EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES WILDFIRE RISK
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF WAYCROSS AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE FL/GA BORDER THIS
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T'STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MAIN IMPETUS OF FOCUS IS A
SHORT WAVE AND FRONT. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN AREA FROM
SOUTH OF WAYCROSS TO JUST SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE CAPES WILL EXCEED
1000. ALSO, IN THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTLINED AREA, A SHORT WAVE
IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO,
ANOTHER AREA THAT MAY BE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION IS
EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED BY A LIGHT TO MODERATE SSW FLOW TODAY. A CONVERGENCE
ZONE MAY SET UP THIS VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EMERGES NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL VERY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTIES. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, THE FRONT AND PASSING SHORT
WAVE, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/OR LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.
PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE WIND GUSTS OF 40+ MPH AND PERHAPS A
SMALL HAIL PRODUCER WITH -10C A 500MB. THERE ARE A FEW
PROHIBITIVE FACTORS: A LITTLE DRY POCKET AT 800 MB, LACK OF
SHEER, AND ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER, ALBEIT IT IS THIN CLOUD
COVER.
THERE WILL BE A BIG DISPARITY OF HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WAYCROSS NORTHWARD TO THE
ALTAMAHA, TO THE LOWER 90S TOWARD THE VILLAGES AND SOUTHERN FLAGLER.
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL TEMPER MAXIMUMS
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA AND LESS CLOUD COVER AND MINIMIZED PRECIP CHANCES
WILL KEEP IT QUITE TOASTY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL.
MOST ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END LATE THIS EVENING SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY NIGHT, ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN LINGERING
THANKS TO THE BOUNDARY REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD, IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS & T'STORMS SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND
NORTHEAST FL
- STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY MONDAY
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON INTO SUNDAY
AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY AS THE MOIST FLOW SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOWING MOIST AIR IN FROM OUT OF THE GULF TO WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED TO BE ENHANCED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH INTERMITTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES
PASSING OVER THE REGION FROM OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT
PRESSING IN TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. POSSIBLE THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE WINDS BUILDING IN THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AND THEN BECOMING MORE MILD AND VARIABLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SETTLES IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOLLOWING THE FROPA ON TUESDAY WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPS EXPERIENCING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, MAX
TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AFTER MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
AREAS OF RAIN AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING, WITH SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM MORE
CONCENTRATED AROUND SSI TERMINAL AROUND 05Z-10Z. A MIX OF MVFR
AND SOME BRIEF IFR INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN
AND SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MVFR CIG/VSBY LOOKS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT DUE TO POST-STORM STRATIFORM LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/MIST. THERE ARE EVEN SOME PRETTY DECENT
CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS FROM ABOUT 07Z-13Z AND HAVE LOWERED CIGS
FOR JAX TERMINALS FOR THIS. MAINLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED SUNDAY AROUND 13Z-17Z, AND THEN A POTENTIAL
FOR TSRA AFTERWARD SO INDICATED VCTS AFTER THAT TIME. WILL
PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED A PROB30 OR TEMPO GROUP FOR THE FL
TERMINALS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR STORMS.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER WILL BE STATIONARY THIS
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS ON
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO CAUTION LEVELS LATE
MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH WINDS
QUICKLY SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF
THE REGION.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SURF/BREAKERS OF ONLY 1-2 FEET.
NEXT CHANCE OF SOLID MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS NEXT
TUESDAY WITH SURGE OF NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS NE FL THIS WEEKEND
- AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS NEXT WEEK
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND, WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST
ALONG IT. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY
WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS, THEN BUILD EAST NORTHEAST MID WEEK.
AFTER ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY. DISPERSIONS WILL BE HIGH TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASED TRANSPORT WINDS AND INCREASING MIXING
HEIGHTS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN OCCUR IN AND
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 64 83 64 83 / 60 50 30 80
SSI 70 82 70 84 / 60 60 20 80
JAX 68 87 68 88 / 50 70 20 80
SGJ 71 88 71 88 / 30 60 10 80
GNV 69 89 69 88 / 40 50 20 70
OCF 70 90 71 89 / 20 20 10 30
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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