026
FXUS62 KJAX 100630
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED DAILY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS:
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL & LIGHTNING
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY FOR AREA WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE TUESDAY
- EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES WILDFIRE RISK
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, SOUTH OF WAYCROSS BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-
10 CORRIDOR.
- AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST FL THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL TODAY AND BECOMES FAIRLY WEAK AND
ILL-DEFINED BY THE EVENING. WHATEVER IS LEFT FROM THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY MORNING AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
FOR TODAY, SOME FORCING FROM MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING WEST TO
EAST IN THE WEST-SOUTWHEST FLOW ALOFT, A MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWAT OF
ABOUT 1.75 INCHES, FRONT AND SEA BREEZES WILL ALL HELP TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD HAVE AREAS OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA PER MODEL CONSENSUS AND WILL SHIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG
ALSO EXPECTED NEAR AND BEFORE SUNRISE. FOR THE AFTERNOON, WHERE
THE HEATING IS GREATER IN NORTHEAST FL, A BETTER CHANCE OF A STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WITH THE MAIN THREATS DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME HAIL. A LOW BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO LATE
AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE A COMBINATION OF LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS BEST. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY TODAY GIVEN
WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER SETS UP. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
BIT LOWER TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
COVER MAY BE MORE PREVALENT. OVERALL, HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY. FOR THIS EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND, MORE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHEAST
FL ZONES AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED BY 11PM-MIDNIGHT. LATE IN THE NIGHT,
WITH SOME SLIGHT CLEARING, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED. MILD OVERNIGHT
LOWS AROUND 65 TO 70 DEG ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY MONDAY
MONDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH STATES INTO
THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEY PUSHING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST AND APPROACHING OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE LEVELS BROAD SCALE LIFT AND ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS 1.6-1.8 AND INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CREATE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND T'STORMS INITIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND T'STORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SHOWERS PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS. MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL WILL FALL NORTH AND EAST OF A OCALA TO TRENTON LINE WITH
TOTALS 1.0-1.5 INCHES ACROSS SE GA AND 0.5-1.0 INCHES ALONG I-95
CORRIDOR OF NE FL WITH DECREASING TOTALS SOUTH OF I-10. DESPITE 0-6
KM SHEAR NOT APPRECIABLE AT AROUND 30 KNOTS OR LESS, STEEPENING LOW
TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL TO -10 TO -11 C AND
850MB WINDS UP TO NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE T'STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS 40-60 MPH THE MAIN
CONCERN, BUT SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
BREEZY WSW WINDS 8-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BRING WARM HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER NE FL WITH
ISOLATED LOW 90S ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WHILE SE GA HIGHS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS, BUT REMAINING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
STALLING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
WAYCROSS AND SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND COOLER NORTHEAST ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS SE GA WITH LOW
80S OVER INLAND NE FL WARMING TO MID 80S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AS ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH, THIS ONE MORE COMPACT, DIVES ESE FROM THE UPPER
PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL TURN
MORE LIGHT AND EASTERLY WITH THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVING WELL
INLAND. ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NE FL ALONG THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN WITH SCATTERED T'STORMS NEAR OCALA NATIONAL FOREST AS
STRONG HEATING AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA, BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH
THROUGH FRIDAY. AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO
RETURN FRIDAY, BUT NO SHOWERS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY WITH DAILY SEABREEZES MOVING
INLAND, BUT DRY AIR ALOFT FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER FL
PENINSULA SHOULD MITIGATE ANY SHOWER CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER NE FL AND
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SE GA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE LOW CIGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING
AND SO EXPECT GOOD CHANCES OF IFR AND LIFR FOR THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR
LESS CHANCE FOR SGJ. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 15Z, AND
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS BY 16Z-18Z. THERE
WILL BE GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 18Z
THROUGH 00Z, AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HOURS.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER TODAY WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO
POSSIBLE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE LOCAL
WATERS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH WINDS LIKELY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
A LOW TO MODERATE RISK EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY WITH SURF THAT
IS AT OR BELOW 2 FEET. THE RISK IS HIGHER WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
LOW RISK AND ESPECIALLY MORE PRONE NEAR SANDBARS. NEXT CHANCE
OF SOLID MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS NEXT TUESDAY AND
LIKELY WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS AND SURF
CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST TODAY
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS MONDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH LATE THIS MORNING PUSHING THE
GULF SEABREEZE TOWARDS HIGHWAY 301 AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVING TO
US-17 BY MID AFTERNOON. ENERGY ALOFT, STRONG DAYTIME HEATING, AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZES/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK WINDS AND LOW MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL CREATE LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST TODAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BREEZY WEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS PIN THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NEAR I-95 WHERE STORMS WILL FOCUS
BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER WITH THE INCOMING FRONT. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAIN IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS, BUT REMAINING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
STALLING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
WAYCROSS AND SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MERGING ATLANTIC AND GULF
SEABREEZES OVER NORTHEAST FL. DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DISPERSIONS
WILL BE HIGH THURSDAY FROM HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MOSTLY I-10 NORTHWARD, BUT
SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN OVER INLAND
AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 84 65 85 62 / 30 20 60 50
SSI 80 69 84 67 / 50 20 70 70
JAX 83 68 88 65 / 60 30 80 70
SGJ 82 71 88 69 / 60 30 70 70
GNV 86 68 89 67 / 60 20 50 50
OCF 88 70 89 69 / 30 20 20 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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