621
FXUS62 KJAX 101207
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
807 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- ISOLATED DAILY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. MAIN
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS: LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL
& LIGHTNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY FOR AREA WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH. HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK POSSIBLE TUESDAY
- EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES WILDFIRE RISK
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN ADDITION PATCHY FOG WILL START TO
ERODE BETWEEN 1330 THRU 15Z THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING
GETS GOING. MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE LOW CIGS AND VSBY OF IFR AND
LIFR CATEGORY FOR THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR LESS CHANCE FOR SGJ. CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY 15Z, AND ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY 16Z-18Z. THERE WILL BE GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 18Z THROUGH 22Z, AND HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE FIRST COAST, WHERE
THE COASTAL COUNTIES MAY OBTAIN SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND
STORMS STARTING TO PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND 22Z. MAY HAVE TO
ENHANCE TEMPO GROUPS FOR DUVAL COUNTY AND ST. AUGUSTINE TAF THIS
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER STORMS. MAINLY VFR AFTER
STORMS DEPART OFFSHORE THIS VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. PATCHY BR MAY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE
AGAIN.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER TODAY WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED
STRONG TO POSSIBLE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH WINDS LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY, AND THEN A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
A LOW TO MODERATE RISK EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY WITH SURF THAT
IS AT OR BELOW 2 FEET. THE RISK IS HIGHER WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
LOW RISK AND ESPECIALLY MORE PRONE NEAR SANDBARS. NEXT CHANCE
OF SOLID MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS NEXT TUESDAY AND
LIKELY WEDNESDAY DUE TO STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS AND SURF
CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST TODAY
- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS MONDAY
- AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS THURSDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH LATE THIS MORNING PUSHING THE
GULF SEABREEZE TOWARDS HIGHWAY 301 AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZE MOVING TO
US-17 BY MID AFTERNOON. ENERGY ALOFT, STRONG DAYTIME HEATING, AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZES/FRONT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK WINDS AND LOW MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL CREATE LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST TODAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AS BREEZY WEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS PIN THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE NEAR I-95 WHERE STORMS WILL FOCUS
BEFORE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER WITH THE INCOMING FRONT. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MAIN IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH WITH BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS, BUT REMAINING MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
STALLING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF
WAYCROSS AND SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MERGING ATLANTIC AND GULF
SEABREEZES OVER NORTHEAST FL. DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DISPERSIONS
WILL BE HIGH THURSDAY FROM HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MOSTLY I-10 NORTHWARD, BUT
SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN OVER INLAND
AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 84 65 85 62 / 30 20 60 50
SSI 80 69 84 67 / 50 20 70 70
JAX 83 68 88 65 / 60 30 80 70
SGJ 82 71 88 69 / 60 30 70 70
GNV 86 68 89 67 / 60 20 50 50
OCF 88 70 89 69 / 30 20 20 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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