822
FXUS62 KJAX 111314
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
914 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. MAIN
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS: STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH, SMALL
HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BEGIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS. HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISKS EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- EXCEPTIONAL TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF OUR
REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. MAIN
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS: STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH, SMALL
HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BEGIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS. HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISKS EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DISSIPATE BY THE MID MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS INLAND SC TO FAR SOUTHEAST LA AT SUNRISE WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BISECTING PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ORIENTED
SW-NE. MEAN LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TODAY, BUT LOW TO
MID WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THE WEEKEND, WHILE MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAIN SUFFICIENT, SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE WEEKEND, FOR
CONVECTION WITH PWAT VALUES GENERALLY 1.4 TO 1.7 INCHES.
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY CALLS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD BE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE PEAK HEATING. NOT MUCH IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS
ALOFT INITIALLY TODAY WITH WEAK TO NEUTRAL HEIGHT FALLS GOING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THIS BEGINS TO CHANGE BY
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING. AT THE SFC, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT WILL BE PRESSING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST GA. WE EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST GA
DURING THE EVENING, SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST FL JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND LIKELY ENDING UP IN NORTH CENTRAL FL BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.
THE FORECAST AREA IS COVERED IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE SPC OUTLOOK. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A BRIEF TORNADO. THE
TORNADO RISK IS MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS BEST AS THE WESTERLY FLOW IS UP
AGAINST THE SLOW MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT MLCAPE OF AROUND 1400- 1800 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF
30-40 KT LATER TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EXIST THIS EVENING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES MORE.
MAX TEMPS TODAY FORECAST IN THE 85 TO 90 DEG RANGE, AND LOWS
TONIGHT MID 60S FOR SOUTHEAST GA AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
FOR NORTHEAST FL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
- BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING,
WITH HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
- WIDELY SCATTERED T'STORMS WEDNESDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE.
TUESDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING EAST OFF THE
SE COAST WITH A LINGERING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST SHIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE, NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY ALOFT WHILE A SURFACE
FRONT SINKS FROM NORTHERN CENTRAL FL INTO CENTRAL FL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. DESPITE THE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZY FLOW, GULF AND ATLANTIC SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL SHIFT INLAND AND COMBINED WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS REMAINING WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T'STORMS. THE INCREASING NORTH TO NE
WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
DIMINISHING WITH INLAND EXTENT TO 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH
OVER INLAND AREAS WEST OF US-17 WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
OVER INLAND SE GA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SE GA, LOW 80S OVER INLAND NE FL AND
MID 80S SOUTH OF A PALATKA TO GAINESVILLE TO TRENTON LINE WITH
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE NE FL COAST.
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND LINGERING ISOLATED T'STORMS TO
SAG INTO CENTRAL FL TUESDAY EVENING AND THE FL COASTAL WATERS
AS AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT OFFSHORE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN IN SE GA
TO THE LOW 60S TO I-10 AND MID/UPPER 60S OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL
AND THE SE GA COAST WITH MILDER LOWS IN THE LOW 70S OVER NE FL
BEACHES.
WEDNESDAY, RIDGING ALOFT AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS A COMPACT TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST WILL TURN
WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AS IT MOVES TOWARDS US-17. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED T'STORMS WILL FORM MOSTLY ALONG THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE ATLANTIC AND ST JOHNS RIVER BREEZE WHERE LIFT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED AND OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. STRONG TO
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW WITH WEAK SHEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND AND THE LOW 80S AT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRY CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
FRIDAY, THEN SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERN AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS, BUT NO
SHOWERS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN INCREASING MOISTURE AROUND THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND
INLAND MOVING SEABREEZES KICK OFF WIDELY ISOLATED T'STORMS.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
BRINGING COOL MORNINGS INLAND IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WHILE
WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE
MID/UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOW 70S AT THE COAST.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
IFR CONDITIONS AT SSI WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 14Z AND THEN VFR
BY 16Z. MVFR CEILINGS AT SGJ SHOULD LIFT TO VFR TOWARDS 15Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z. CONFIDENCE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
HAS DECREASED, AND WE HAVE REMOVED PROB30 GROUPS AND VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM MENTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECAST TRENDS AND COULD RE- INTRODUCE VCTS AND/OR TEMPO GROUPS
FOR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE 18Z TAFS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND SGJ. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH AFTER 01Z TUESDAY, WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. IFR
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AS SOON AS 07Z AT SSI, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS BEFORE 09Z AND
IFR POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TOWARDS 15Z,
WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PUSHING ONSHORE AFTER 17Z,
SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT SGJ
AND SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT SSI BY 19Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO WESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z BEFORE SHIFTING
TO NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY AFTER 06Z, WITH SPEEDS AT SSI
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 09Z.
MARINE
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
THEN PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
A LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH SURF
HEIGHTS GENERALLY BELOW 2 FEET. THE RISK WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER
WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF LOW TIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR SANDBARS. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RISK EXPECTED TUESDAY AND LIKELY WEDNESDAY DUE
TO STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING SURF CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY
- HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- NEAR CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
8-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP NEAR I-95 WITH MAIN IMPACTS GUSTY WINDS
40-60 MPH, SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CREATE HIGH
DISPERSIONS OVER SOUTHEAST GA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZES OVER THE US-17 AND I-95 CORRIDORS.
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DISPERSIONS WILL BE IN THE GOOD
RANGE DESPITE BREEZY WINDS DUE TO LOW CLOUD COVER, BUT INCREASE
WEDNESDAY FROM HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVING ON
THURSDAY AND INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD HIGH AFTERNOON
DISPERSIONS. MINRH VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 90 64 79 59 / 10 40 0 0
SSI 88 69 76 69 / 10 40 30 10
JAX 91 70 79 66 / 20 50 60 10
SGJ 89 72 81 70 / 30 60 60 30
GNV 91 70 85 66 / 20 60 60 10
OCF 91 70 86 67 / 20 30 60 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ450-
470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ452-
472.
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