945
FXUS62 KJAX 122245
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
645 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST & NORTH CENTRAL
FL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL. PRIMARY HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5" - 2" ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-5" POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXTENDED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
FOR OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT ALL AREA
BEACHES.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVERSING APALACHEE BAY AND THE NORTHEAST GULF ALONG A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. MEANWHILE,
HIGH PRESSURE (1025 MILLIBARS) WAS BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, WITH THIS FEATURE WEDGING
DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. ALOFT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AL, THE FL PANHANDLE, AND SW
GA. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS PUSHING
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR WAS DIGGING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. MOSTLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
STRATIFORM RAINFALL PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA, UPSTREAM FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHILE GREATER INSTABILITY CLOSER TO
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WAS DEVELOPING EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN THE
60S THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST GA AT 19Z, WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
RAINFALL INTENSITY SHOULD UNDERGO ANOTHER UPTICK LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING THE FL PANHANDLE APPROACHES OUR REGION. RAINFALL SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY STRATIFORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
SOME ELEVATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EMBEDDED
DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10, WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY RESULTING IN PULSING STORMS THAT COULD
CREATE LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, IN ADDITION TO
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN MARION,
PUTNAM, AND FLAGLER COUNTIES, WHICH ARE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REMAIN LOW DUE TO A LACK OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DUE TO ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10, WHILE
AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-10 WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND
ONE INCH THROUGH SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 60S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO AROUND 70 FOR COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL, WHERE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SHOWERS AND T'STORMS WEDNESDAY AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND
AS THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
A CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH ONSHORE, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM THE COAST AND TOWARDS INLAND LOCATIONS AS THE BOUNDARY
PUSHES INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S, WITH A FEW COOLER SPOTS IN THE UPPER 70S. BY THE EVENING
HOURS, THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS
WILL DIPPING TO THE LOWER 60S TO MID 60S.
THURSDAY, DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ALLOWING
CLEAR SKIES TO SETTLE IN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A BIT WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY AS DAYTIME HIGHS ON RISE TO THE 80S,
WITH LOWER 80S ACROSS SE GA AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NE FL. BY THE
EVENING HOURS, LOWS WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 50S FOR SE GA AND THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS NE FL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
- DRY CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND, BUT NOT EXPECTING THE SAME COVERAGE AS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT THIS PERIOD WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE 90S OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL. BY THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL
AS MOST LOCATIONS RISE ABOVE THE 90F MARK, WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS IN
THE 80S THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER RAIN BANDS THAT
OCCUR ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TSRA CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW
AND WILL LIKELY ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL TERMINALS
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS ARE POSSIBLE. E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GUSTY AT 15G20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL TERMINALS
WHILE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT INLAND TERMINALS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME
FRAME AS MVFR CIGS START TO BECOME SCT-BKN AND RAINFALL CHANCES
DECREASE WITH POTENTIAL VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE VERY END OF
THE TAF PERIOD FROM 21Z WED TO 00Z THU AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AREA-WIDE.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA WATERS WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF
PUSHES EASTWARD. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE
WATERS SOUTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH STRONGER
STORMS BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, HAIL, AND POSSIBLY WATERSPOUTS.
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OF THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY
WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE A
DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
A HIGH RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WHERE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SURF HEIGHTS OF 4-6 FEET AT
THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND 2-4 FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES
WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE SURF HEIGHTS WILL
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK ANTICIPATED AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND POSSIBLY A LOW RISK AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES AS SURF FALLS TO AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE THURSDAY
NEAR CRITICAL DAYTIME MINRH VALUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER
- INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. WITH THE
CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW, THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH IN
TOWARDS INLAND LOCATIONS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY THE DRY COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL
LIMIT ANY CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR, NEAR CRITICAL DAYTIME MINRH VALUES WILL
DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS
INLAND SE GA. ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BRING HIGH
DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 60 81 59 82 / 80 30 10 0
SSI 68 77 66 85 / 100 60 0 0
JAX 66 80 63 87 / 100 70 0 0
SGJ 68 81 65 87 / 100 70 0 0
GNV 66 83 63 87 / 80 50 10 0
OCF 67 85 64 86 / 70 60 10 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ472-474.
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