787
FXUS62 KJAX 131837
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
237 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH AROUND SUNSET
THIS EVENING AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE (1012
MILLIBARS) SITUATED NEAR THE GULF STREAM WATERS ADJACENT TO
COASTAL GA. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FL. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT STRETCHES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THE OZARKS, WITH THIS BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD.
ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IMPACTED OUR REGION FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WAS NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OTHERWISE, A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WAS TRAVERSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES STATES WAS DIGGING A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID- ATLANTIC
STATES. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL AS WELL AS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST
FL AND SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE PWATS WERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. A
DRIER AIR MASS WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WHERE PWATS WERE FALLING TO THE 1.3
- 1.4 INCH RANGE, WITH EVEN DRIER AIR LOCATED UPSTREAM FROM OUR
AREA. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL WAVE WAS PRODUCING
SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA, WITH THIS ACTIVITY OCCASIONALLY
MIGRATING ACROSS NASSAU AND EASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES. SHOWERS WERE
ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE FL
NATURE COAST, WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL FL. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S, WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 65-70 RANGE.
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
CONTINUE ALONG THE I-95 AND U.S.-301 CORRIDORS THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING, IN ADDITION TO ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND
ACROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IN
NORTH CENTRAL FL. OTHERWISE, DEEPENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
COMPLIMENTS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.,
WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS
TROUGH WILL ALSO DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES OVERNIGHT, WITH THIS BOUNDARY CROSSING SOUTHEAST GA
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND REACHING THE I-10 CORRIDOR TOWARDS
SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DRIER AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO
OUR AREA, DROPPING PWATS BELOW 1 INCH AREA-WIDE BY SUNRISE.
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND 60.
LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL DROP TO THE LOW AND MID 60S, WHILE A
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE AFTER MIDNIGHT KEEPS LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLEARER SKIES SETTLE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, BRINGING RHS VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF SE GA ON THURSDAY, WITH NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS EXTENDING TOWARDS FL/GA STATE LINE ON FRIDAY.
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE
LIMITED THROUGH THE THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH CLEARER SKIES ON
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS RISE TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SE GA AND
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS NE FL ON THURSDAY. CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT HIGHER
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING INTO
THE 90S ALONG NORTH CENTRAL FL. BY THE EVENING HOURS, LOWS WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 50S FOR SE GA AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS NE FL ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING ONLY INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ON SUNDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN LOW ON SATURDAY AS THE DRY
AIR FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STEADILY REPLACED WITH AN
INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH THE PERSISTENT SE
ONSHORE FLOW. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND UPWARD ABOVE
1.5" WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LIKELY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHES IN, WITH COVERAGE
ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS INCREASING DURING THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS WILL
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS, RISING ABOVE THE 90F
MARK FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE 80S
THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT SSI AND JAX THROUGH AROUND 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL AT VQQ AND SGJ THROUGH AROUND 01Z. IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT VQQ. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT SSI THROUGH AROUND 00Z,
FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS. NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH AROUND 00Z, FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY AND
THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS
AFTER 00Z. NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS BY 15Z THURSDAY.
MARINE
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GULF STREAM WATERS
ADJACENT TO COASTAL GEORGIA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT, ALLOWING SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING AND BECOMING BREEZY ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
RIP CURRENTS:
A HIGH RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL
AREA BEACHES, MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SURF HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FEET AT
THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND 2-4 FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES. SURF HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY, WITH A MODERATE
RISK ANTICIPATED AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WHERE BREAKERS OF
2-4 FEET WILL PERSIST. A LOW RISK IS POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHEAST
GA BEACHES ON THURSDAY, WHERE BREAKER HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY YIELD A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT ALL
AREA BEACHES. PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY KEEP A MODERATE RISK IN PLACE AT ALL AREA
BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
- HIGH DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE THURSDAY.
- NEAR CRITICALLY LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION,
LIMITING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR STORMS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN, NEAR CRITICAL DAYTIME MINRH
VALUES WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS FOR
INTERIOR SE GA LOCATIONS. HIGH DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH FURTHER DAYS OF HIGHER
DISPERSIONS THIS WEEKEND ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. A RETURN OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS
OVERALL WIND FLOW SHIFT TO COME FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 59 80 54 82 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 64 84 63 80 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 62 86 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 67 87 64 85 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 64 87 57 88 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 65 86 61 88 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-
166.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page