851
FXUS62 KJAX 140005
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES FROM THURSDAY
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TSTORMS RETURN FOR INLAND LOCATIONS
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
UPDATE
A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WEAKLY
UNSTABLE REGIONS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE LINGERING ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG FOR SOUTHEAST
GA AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTHEAST FL, ESPECIALLY WHERE
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN FELL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, IT'LL BE QUICKLY MIXED
OUT THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE AROUND 60 IN
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE LOW TO MID 60S IN NORTHEAST FL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK LOW PRESSURE (1012
MILLIBARS) SITUATED NEAR THE GULF STREAM WATERS ADJACENT TO COASTAL
GA. MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL FL. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE OZARKS, WITH THIS
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. ALOFT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
IMPACTED OUR REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WAS NOW
SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OTHERWISE, A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS TRAVERSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES STATES
WAS DIGGING A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL AS WELL AS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL AND
SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE PWATS WERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. A DRIER AIR MASS
WAS BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY, WHERE PWATS WERE FALLING TO THE 1.3 - 1.4 INCH RANGE, WITH
EVEN DRIER AIR LOCATED UPSTREAM FROM OUR AREA. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
FRONTAL WAVE WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA, WITH THIS ACTIVITY
OCCASIONALLY MIGRATING ACROSS NASSAU AND EASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES.
SHOWERS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG
THE FL NATURE COAST, WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL FL. TEMPERATURES AT 18Z RANGED FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S, WITH DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 65-70 RANGE.
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 AND U.S.-301 CORRIDORS THROUGH AROUND SUNSET THIS
EVENING, IN ADDITION TO ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE I-75
CORRIDOR ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IN NORTH CENTRAL FL.
OTHERWISE, DEEPENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, COMPLIMENTS OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN U.S., WILL ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS
INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO DRIVE A DRY COLD
FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVERNIGHT, WITH THIS BOUNDARY
CROSSING SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND REACHING THE I-10
CORRIDOR TOWARDS SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DRIER AIR MASS ADVECTS
INTO OUR AREA, DROPPING PWATS BELOW 1 INCH AREA-WIDE BY SUNRISE.
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE AND DECOUPLING SURFACE WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GA, WHERE LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND 60. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL
DROP TO THE LOW AND MID 60S, WHILE A DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE
AFTER MIDNIGHT KEEPS LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
- WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND
CLEARER SKIES SETTLE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION, BRINGING RHS VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS OF SE GA ON THURSDAY, WITH NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS EXTENDING
TOWARDS FL/GA STATE LINE ON FRIDAY. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, CHANCES
OF SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE THE END OF THE
WEEK. WITH CLEARER SKIES ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM UP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS RISE TO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS SE GA AND THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS NE FL ON THURSDAY.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS CONTINUE TO TREND A
BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO THE 90S ALONG NORTH CENTRAL FL. BY THE EVENING HOURS, LOWS WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE MID 50S FOR SE GA AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS NE FL ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A BIT WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS FALLING ONLY INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ON SUNDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEK
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN LOW ON SATURDAY AS THE DRY AIR
FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS STEADILY REPLACED WITH AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH THE PERSISTENT SE ONSHORE FLOW. PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO TREND UPWARD ABOVE 1.5" WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHES IN, WITH COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS
INCREASING DURING THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS WILL TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, RISING ABOVE THE 90F MARK FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH
COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE 80S THANKS TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
INTERMITTENT MVFR STRATUS POSSIBLY THROUGH 03Z, TRENDING VFR
AREAWIDE THEREAFTER. CURRENT LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
FARTHER AWAY THIS EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY 10Z-14Z BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, AND SKC CONDITIONS. SOME MOISTURE BUILDUP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE LATE HOURS TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO
INTERMITTENT FOG INLAND, PARTICULALRLY AT KVQQ AND POSSIBLY KJAX.
MARINE
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GULF STREAM WATERS
ADJACENT TO COASTAL GEORGIA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT, ALLOWING SEAS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING AND BECOMING BREEZY ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
RIP CURRENTS:
A HIGH RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL
AREA BEACHES, MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SURF HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FEET AT THE
NORTHEAST FL BEACHES AND 2-4 FEET AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES. SURF
HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK ANTICIPATED
AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, WHERE BREAKERS OF 2-4 FEET WILL
PERSIST. A LOW RISK IS POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHEAST GA BEACHES ON
THURSDAY, WHERE BREAKER HEIGHTS WILL FALL TO AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS.
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
YIELD A LOWER END MODERATE RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES. PREVAILING EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY KEEP A MODERATE RISK
IN PLACE AT ALL AREA BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION, LIMITING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS OR STORMS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WITH THE DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN, NEAR CRITICAL DAYTIME MINRH VALUES WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS FOR INTERIOR SE GA LOCATIONS. HIGH
DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
FURTHER DAYS OF HIGHER DISPERSIONS THIS WEEKEND ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A RETURN OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY AS OVERALL WIND FLOW SHIFT TO COME FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED IN
AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 59 80 54 82 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 64 84 63 80 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 62 86 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 67 87 64 85 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 64 87 57 88 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 65 86 61 88 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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