694
FXUS62 KJAX 280638
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
238 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN STRONG STORM
HAZARD AREA: I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE BEACHES.
- SEVERAL DAYS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TODAY AND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL & LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN INTO NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD 3-5 RAINFALL
TOTALS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS
IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NUDGES TOWARDS NORTHEAST GA. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WITH THIS
CHANGE WILL BE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME TODAY, KEEPING
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY GULF SEA BREEZE, INTERACTING WITH THE NEARLY
PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE, WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVERS BEHIND
DIURNAL CONVECTION TODAY, WITH THE I- 95 CORRIDOR AREA BEING THE
MAIN AREA TO WATCH WHERE THIS CONVERGENCE OCCURS. PWATS
INCREASING TO 2+ INCHES WILL FURTHER ADD TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, IN ADDITION TO THE "USUAL" GUSTY
WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. DESPITE SOME SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGHER CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY.
TONIGHT, SOME REMNANT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AROUND
THE 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR GA AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES JUST TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD
ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
WET, STORM PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A A PARADE OF
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE A STALLED, WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING OFF THE
COAST SATURDAY WILL DEPART OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SINKS
DOWN FROM THE NORTH, PUSHING A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY.
AMID A TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS, THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL LEAD
TO WAVES OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING SATURDAY AS
A SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE DEEP
MOIST PROFILE, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES DEVELOP.
A MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO A DOMINANT GULF
BREEZE RESULTING IN A FOCUSED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAMED A
BIT BY THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER AND IT'S POSSIBLE
THAT SOME LOCATIONS DON'T REACH THE FORECASTED MAXIMUM; HOWEVER, IT
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 ACROSS NE FL AND THE MID 80S IN SE GA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST AREA-WIDE.
- CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SINK INTO NE FL
THROUGH SUNDAY AND BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST, ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY
STALL AND THE FORECAST MAY BE A BIT "HEAVY-HANDED" FOR SOME
AREAS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO SE GA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MAIN CONCERNS WILL STILL BE HEAVY RAIN,
ESPECIALLY WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT NEXT WEEK. ACCUMULATIONS OVER THIS PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
A SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
INTO THE AREA, RENEWING RISKS OF RIP CURRENTS NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
CONVECTION HAS COME TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY SOME
REMNANT LIGHT SHRA OR VCSH POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
MINIMAL OPERATIONAL IMPACTS. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS, THOUGH IFR FG WILL BE EXPECTED AT VQQ FOR A
FEW HOURS TOWARDS SUNRISE. SOME SCT MVFR CLOUD DECKS AROUND THE AREA
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME BKN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL AS ANY
RA THREAT WINDS DOWN, THOUGH PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AND/OR AS TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA IMPACTS INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRFIELDS
GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE. MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED,
WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FURTHER THAN
MORE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SITES.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS TODAY. WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL TRAVERSE OUR LOCAL
WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN
TO CAUTION LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE.
RIP CURRENTS:
FLOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY, WHICH WILL DROP RIP CURRENT RISK TO
MODERATE ACROSS NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, AND LOW AT SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF BREEZE TO
PUSH FURTHER INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PUSHING TOWARDS I-95 AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE COMING FROM THE GULF ON
WESTERLY TRANSPORT FLOW, WIDESPREAD WAVES OF DOWNPOURS ARE FORECAST
AREA-WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A LATE SEASON
COOL FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO LOW HUMIDITY CONCERNS OR FIRE WEATHER
THREATS ARE EXPECTED. THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL DURING THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. ERRATIC
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 86 70 84 68 / 80 30 90 70
SSI 89 75 85 74 / 70 60 80 60
JAX 91 72 88 72 / 80 40 90 60
SGJ 92 73 88 73 / 70 30 80 40
GNV 90 72 90 72 / 70 20 70 30
OCF 89 73 89 73 / 60 20 60 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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