987
FXUS62 KJAX 281121
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
721 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN: I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE BEACHES. STRONG GUSTS AROUND 40
MPH, FLOODING, AND PERIODS OF LIGHTNING
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD
3-5 RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH
- LOCALIZED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 POSSIBLE. DAILY, MARGINAL RISK OF
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND FLOOD-PRONE AREAS
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE
MORNING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
WET, STORM PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A A PARADE OF
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE A STALLED, WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LYING ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. A WEAK LOW FORMING OFF THE COAST SATURDAY
WILL DEPART OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER TROUGH SINKS DOWN FROM THE NORTH,
PUSH A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION LATE SATURDAY.
AMID A TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS, THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES WILL LEAD
TO WAVES OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION. GIVEN DEEP
MOIST PROFILE, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP.
A MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO A DOMINANT GULF
BREEZE RESULTING IN A FOCUSED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TAMED A
BIT BY THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER AND IT'S POSSIBLE
THAT SOME LOCATIONS DON'T REACH THE FORECASTED MAXIMUM; HOWEVER, IT
IS GENERALLY EXPECTED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 ACROSS NE FL AND THE MID 80S IN SE GA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST AREA-WIDE.
- CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SINK INTO NE FL THROUGH
SUNDAY AND BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON BRINGING THE FRONT TOWARD
NORTH-CENTRAL FL THROUGH MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN FROM THE
WEST, ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS.
THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY STALL
AND THE FORECAST MAY BE A BIT "HEAVY-HANDED" FOR SOME AREAS GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO SE GA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MAIN CONCERNS WILL STILL BE HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY WITH
POTENTIAL TRAINING AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS. A SURGE
OF NORTHEASTERLY WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA, RENEWING RISKS OF RIP CURRENTS NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW/MID 80S.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
SHOWERS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE A BRIEF
RESTRICTION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, THE CHANCE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH
FOR MENTION IN TAF. GREATER CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, AND CONVECTION INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND MOVES THROUGH.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. PATCHY RESTRICTIONS IN
STRATUS AND FOG ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
MARINE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DIMINISHING SPEEDS TODAY. WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OUR LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER OUR LOCAL WATERS, WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL TRAVERSE OUR LOCAL
WATERS FROM WEST TO EAST. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN
TO CAUTION LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE.
RIP CURRENTS:
FLOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY, WHICH WILL DROP RIP CURRENT RISK TO
MODERATE ACROSS NORTHEAST FL BEACHES, AND LOW AT SOUTHEAST GA
BEACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF BREEZE TO
PUSH FURTHER INLAND BY THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PUSHING TOWARDS I-95 AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE COMING FROM THE GULF ON
WESTERLY TRANSPORT FLOW, WIDESPREAD WAVES OF DOWNPOURS ARE FORECAST
AREA-WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY BE FOLLOWED BY A LATE SEASON
COOL FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO LOW HUMIDITY CONCERNS OR FIRE WEATHER
THREATS ARE EXPECTED. THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL DURING THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. ERRATIC
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 86 70 84 68 / 80 30 90 70
SSI 89 75 85 74 / 70 60 80 60
JAX 91 72 88 72 / 80 40 90 60
SGJ 92 73 88 73 / 70 30 80 40
GNV 90 72 90 72 / 70 20 70 30
OCF 89 73 89 73 / 60 20 60 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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