850
FXUS62 KJAX 282335
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
735 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN: I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE BEACHES. STRONG GUSTS AROUND 40
MPH, LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND PERIODS OF LIGHTNING
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT NORTHEAST FL BEACHES TODAY
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD
3-5 RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH
- LOCALIZED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 POSSIBLE. DAILY, MARGINAL RISK OF
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND FLOOD-PRONE AREAS
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COVERAGE OF THE STORMS WILL DECREASE
LATE THIS EVENING, WITH A MAINLY DRY NIGHT FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THE GULF BREEZE WILL BE THE DOMINANT OF THE
TWO SEA BREEZES DURING THE PERIOD, DIRECTING SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST, WITH SEA BREEZE MERGES ALONG THE
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ATLANTIC COAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP AS PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE ALSO OF CONCERN FOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING STORMS OR IF TRAINING OF STORMS DEVELOP. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY, BUT COME SATURDAY HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS/STORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ACROSS NE FL, WITH THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SE GA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST AREA-WIDE.
- CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, AND LIKELY BEGIN TO STALL OVER NORTH
CENTRAL FL SUNDAY NIGHT, REMAINING THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF
WHERE THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL, THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK. BUT AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: MAIN
CONCERNS WILL STILL BE HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY WITH POTENTIAL
TRAINING AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
RESTRICTIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KSSI WITH CONVECTION
INITIATING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH STORMS
RETURNING THROUGH THE FORECASTED AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT, ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA: LOW TODAY, MODERATE FRIDAY
NE FL: MODERATE TODAY, LOW FRIDAY
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF BREEZE TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PUSHING
TOWARDS I-95 AND THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH INCREASED MOISTURE COMING
FROM THE GULF WITH THE WESTERLY TRANSPORT FLOW, WIDESPREAD WAVES OF
DOWNPOURS ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY BE
FOLLOWED BY A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO LOW
HUMIDITY CONCERNS OR FIRE WEATHER THREATS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COULD SEE POOR TO FAIR DISPERSIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS LOCATIONS IN INTERIOR SE GA AND ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL DURING THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. ERRATIC
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 83 68 84 / 30 80 60 80
SSI 74 84 73 87 / 70 70 40 80
JAX 72 87 71 89 / 60 80 50 80
SGJ 73 88 73 89 / 60 70 30 70
GNV 72 90 72 88 / 30 80 30 70
OCF 73 88 73 86 / 10 50 20 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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