677
FXUS62 KJAX 290616
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
216 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN: INLAND BETWEEN ABOUT HWY 301 & I-75. STRONG
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH, LOCALIZED FLOODING
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD 1-3 RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS 4+ INCHES. DAILY MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND FLOOD-PRONE AREAS
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HIGH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE
FAIRLY COMPLEX SET UP TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. GENERALLY
WEAK RIDGING AT 500 MB OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES TODAY WHILE
THE NORTH ZONES ARE AFFECTED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND VORT
LOBES PASSING THROUGH THAT AREA. A FRONT WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GA AND SOUTHERN SC TODAY AND WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. A
PRE- FRONTAL SFC TROUGHING WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH ZONES THIS
MORNING, ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS BROAD ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE / TROUGHING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THEN
BECOME DIFFUSE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS
OF AROUND 2.1 INCHES, DAYTIME HEATING, AND THE TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS (2+ INCH PWAT, MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIO OF NEAR
16 G/KG, AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 12-13 KFT), THERE IS CERTAINLY
POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 INCH HOURLY AMOUNTS WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME
MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN ANY URBANIZED LOCATIONS.
BY THIS EVENING, MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE INLAND NEAR AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS
TO OCCUR. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE, LIKELY NOT
TOTALLY ENDING OVERNIGHT, BUT CERTAINLY SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-45 MPH, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL LOWER OVER SOUTHEAST GA (LOWER TO MID 80S)
GIVEN CLOUD COVER THERE AND EARLIER PRECIP ONSET. FOR NORTHEAST FL,
MORE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, PROBABLY AROUND 90 DEG FROM PALATKA
WESTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL. LOWS MILD AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND MINOR FLOODING, MAINLY
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
DEEP MOISTURE AS WELL AS A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACCOMPANIED
BY UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL WAVES WILL PERSIST A NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND T'STORM REGIME THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY, A LIGHT TO
MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
CONVECTION MORE DOMINATED BY THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. ALONG WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T'STORMS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY
NORTH AND EAST OF ABOUT I-10, SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR WILL BE LIKELY DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY COLLIDES WITH THE NEARLY PINNED ATLANTIC BREEZE. SEVERE
THREAT IS ONCE AGAIN LOW, THOUGH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL/MINOR FLOODING THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE "USUAL"
GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S, DESPITE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE.
SIMILAR TO RECENT NIGHTS, SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. INTERIOR GA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
LINGERING RAINFALL.
SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK TOWARDS ALMOST
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA, SHIFTING FLOW GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST. THOUGH SHOWERS/T'STORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE AREA, THE "AXIS" OF MORE ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND TO COLLIDE WITH THE GULF BREEZE. SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN ONCE AGAIN, WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL DROP A BIT THANKS TO THE
FLOW SHIFT, WITH WIDESPREAD 80S FORECAST. SOME READINGS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S WILL INVADE INTERIOR GA FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHTS AS LOW TO MID 70S PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THOUGH
COVERAGE TRENDING LOWER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY BEFORE AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES HELPS TO DROP THE FRONT JUST SOUTH
OF OUR CWA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THIS FLOW SHIFT TOWARDS A MORE DRIER
INFLUENCE WILL GENERALLY DECREASE SHOWER AND T'STORM CHANCES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL LIKELY
CONFINED TOWARDS SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS
CERTAINLY SOME UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR
SOUTHWARD THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR THAT MAKES
IT ALL THE WAY TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, THOUGH TRENDS ARE AT LEAST
FOR LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T'STORMS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
POSSIBLY BELOW CLIMO.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
A CHANCE OF SLIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL A
DIMINISHING TREND IN CHANCES. IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS, THERE ARE ENHANCED CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS. LOWER VSBY EXPECTED FOR VQQ THROUGH 12Z DOWN TO SUB
IFR. FROM 15Z TO 17Z, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAY
FORM NEAR THE JAX TERMINALS TO SSI. DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, AND WITH THE JUICY AIRMASS, CAN EASILY SEE IFR AND MVFR
VSBY IN THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY 04Z-06Z, SO THE
EVENING HOURS MAY STILL SEE A THREAT OF AT LEAST MVFR TSRA FROM 00Z-
03Z. FOR SFC WINDS, LIGHT TO CALM, AND THEN AFTER 12Z WEST-NORTHWEST
NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS 4-8 KT, AND NORTHEAST TO EAST 5-10 KT FOR
SSI. ONCE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS BY ABOUT 18Z, WIND
FORECASTS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT, AND LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN MESO-
SCALE TYPE BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. A WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH INTO THE GEORGIA WATERS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY INTO THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS ON
SUNDAY. WINDS MAY REACH CAUTION LEVELS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OR DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL, THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: GENERAL WIND FORECASTS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND SEAS AT AREA BUOYS ARE 3 FT OR LESS. STILL
LINGERING WIND-SEA SWELLS ABOUT 8 OR 9 SECONDS, AND SURF OF
AVERAGING ABOUT 2 FT, POSSIBLY 3 FT AT THE MOST. MOST OF THE
ENERGY FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION SO LONGSHORE CURRENT
WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH. ALL IN ALL, A LOW-END MODERATE RISK
FRIDAY, AND MAY TREND A LITTLE LOWER ON SATURDAY GIVEN OFFSHORE
FLOW AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWER SEAS/SURF.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TODAY
- PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SATURDAY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FEATURING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA BEFORE MEANDERING TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. MUCH NEEDED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS,
LIGHT FLOW WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND TODAY, THOUGH A
MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY WILL KEEP THIS BREEZE NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST. A MODERATE "SURGE" OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL COME ON SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA. DISPERSIONS WILL BE
POOR TO FAIR NORTH AND EAST TODAY WITH PATCHY LOW DISPERSIONS
POSSIBLE THANKS TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN/T'STORMS. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST CLOSER TO I-75, FAIR TO GOOD
ARE EXPECTED THANKS TO BETTER MIXING/TRANSPORT WINDS. GOOD TO PATCHY
HIGH DISPERSIONS WILL THEN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW
LIMITS TO A POOR TO FAIR RANGE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
SHOWER/T'STORM CHANCES PERSIST ALBEIT LOWER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK
AS SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO FILTER IN.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL DURING THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. ERRATIC
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 69 85 68 / 80 70 80 70
SSI 84 74 88 73 / 70 60 80 80
JAX 86 72 90 72 / 70 40 90 70
SGJ 87 73 90 73 / 60 30 90 60
GNV 90 72 88 72 / 70 60 70 40
OCF 89 73 87 74 / 70 50 60 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page