375
FXUS62 KJAX 291300
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
900 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN: INLAND LOCATIONS BETWEEN U.S. HIGHWAY
301 AND I-75. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING, WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. DAILY MARGINAL RISK OF
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AT URBAN AND NORMALLY FLOOD-PRONE, LOW-
LYING AREAS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- HIGH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
A FEW STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
FAIRLY COMPLEX SET UP TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.
GENERALLY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES TODAY
WHILE THE NORTH ZONES ARE AFFECTED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND
VORT LOBES PASSING THROUGH THAT AREA. A FRONT WILL BE OVER THE
CAROLINAS TODAY AND WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. A PRE-FRONTAL
SFC TROUGHING WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH ZONES THIS MORNING,
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS BROAD ZONE OF CONFLUENCE /
TROUGHING WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST TODAY AND THEN BECOME DIFFUSE
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE. THE COMBINATION OF PWATS OF AROUND 2.1
INCHES, DAYTIME HEATING, AND THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS (2+INCH
PWAT, MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIO OF NEAR 16G/KG, AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTH OF 12-13 KFT), THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 INCH
HOURLY AMOUNTS WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY URBANIZED LOCATIONS. BY THIS EVENING, MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WILL BE INLAND NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 WHERE
THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO OCCUR. CONVECTION WILL
BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE, LIKELY NOT TOTALLY ENDING OVERNIGHT, BUT
CERTAINLY SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL LOWER OVER SOUTHEAST GA (LOWER TO MID 80S)
GIVEN CLOUD COVER THERE AND EARLIER PRECIP ONSET. FOR NORTHEAST
FL, MORE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, PROBABLY AROUND 90 DEG FROM
PALATKA WESTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL. LOWS MILD AGAIN TONIGHT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND MINOR
FLOODING, MAINLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
DEEP MOISTURE AS WELL AS A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL WAVES WILL PERSIST A
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND T'STORM REGIME THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA SATURDAY, A LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
5-10 MPH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CONVECTION MORE DOMINATED BY THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND T'STORMS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY NORTH AND EAST OF
ABOUT I-10, SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL BE
LIKELY DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY
COLLIDES WITH THE NEARLY PINNED ATLANTIC BREEZE. SEVERE THREAT
IS ONCE AGAIN LOW, THOUGH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL/MINOR FLOODING THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE
"USUAL" GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ALLOW HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S, DESPITE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUNSHINE. SIMILAR TO RECENT NIGHTS, SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF
SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL SINK
A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. INTERIOR GA WILL HAVE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LINGERING RAINFALL.
SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK TOWARDS
ALMOST DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA, SHIFTING FLOW GENERALLY OUT
OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THOUGH SHOWERS/T'STORMS WILL REMAIN
LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA, THE "AXIS" OF MORE ENHANCED
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND TO COLLIDE WITH THE GULF
BREEZE. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN ONCE AGAIN, WITH SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY ALSO POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL DROP A BIT THANKS TO THE FLOW SHIFT, WITH WIDESPREAD
80S FORECAST. SOME READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL INVADE
INTERIOR GA FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS AS LOW TO MID
70S PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WARMER WITH LESS STORM COVERAGE BY TUESDAY.
- COOLER, BREEZY & DRIER WITH INLAND STORM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS .OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHILE GRADUALLY SETTLING
SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A BROAD SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY MONDAY, WHICH COULD ENHANCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST NORTH OF A
LOW CENTER & ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE WOULD BE
GREATEST. BY TUESDAY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR (PWAT
FALLING BELOW 1 INCH) UNDER DRIER NW STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL
BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK
TOWARD CLIMO VALUES. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A MUCH DRIER
PATTERN UNFOLDS WITH BELOW NORMAL PWAT AND ONSHORE, EASTERLY
FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW, THEN THE RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST
BUILDING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEA BOARD INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK. LOOKING DRIER WITH PLEASANT, NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND MILD LOWS IN THE 60S TO
70S.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
IFR CEILINGS AT SSI ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO LOW MVFR BY 15Z. VFR
.CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH AROUND
18Z, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2,000 FEET POSSIBLE
AFTER 14Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INITIALLY NEAR THE SSI TERMINAL AFTER 15Z, WITH ACTIVITY THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR
THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND SGJ AFTER 17Z. CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
SHOULD THEN ENCOUNTER CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND
MOVING GULF COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY IMPACTING THE GNV TERMINAL TOWARDS OR
AFTER 20Z. TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND
IFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WERE USED AT EACH
TERMINAL. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AT SSI
TOWARDS 21Z, THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND SGJ TOWARDS 23Z, AND
AT GNV TOWARDS 02Z. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS, IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT VQQ AFTER 03Z SATURDAY, AT SSI TOWARDS
07Z, AND AT GNV TOWARDS 09Z. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO CURRENTLY
INDICATE CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT SGJ, CRG, AND
JAX DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH INTO
THE GEORGIA WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY INTO THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS ON SUNDAY. WINDS MAY REACH CAUTION
LEVELS ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL, THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH GENERAL WIND FORECASTS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND SEAS AT AREA BUOYS ARE 3 FT OR
LESS. STILL LINGERING WIND-SEA SWELLS ABOUT 8 OR 9 SECONDS, AND
SURF OF AVERAGING ABOUT 2 FT, POSSIBLY 3 FT AT THE MOST. MOST OF
THE ENERGY FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION SO LONGSHORE
CURRENT WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH. ALL IN ALL, A LOW-END MODERATE
RISK FRIDAY, AND MAY TREND A LITTLE LOWER ON SATURDAY GIVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWER SEAS/SURF.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
TODAY.
- PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SATURDAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FEATURING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA BEFORE MEANDERING TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. MUCH NEEDED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS, LIGHT FLOW WILL ALLOW A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND
TODAY, THOUGH A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY WILL KEEP THIS
BREEZE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. A MODERATE "SURGE" OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL COME ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO PUSH TOWARDS
THE AREA. DISPERSIONS WILL BE POOR TO FAIR NORTH AND EAST TODAY
WITH PATCHY LOW DISPERSIONS POSSIBLE THANKS TO PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAIN/T'STORMS. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST
CLOSER TO I-75, FAIR TO GOOD ARE EXPECTED THANKS TO BETTER
MIXING/TRANSPORT WINDS. GOOD TO PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS WILL
THEN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW LIMITS TO A POOR
TO FAIR RANGE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. SHOWER/T'STORM CHANCES
PERSIST ALBEIT LOWER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS SOME DRIER AIR
TRIES TO FILTER IN.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL DURING THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
ERRATIC WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 70 85 68 / 80 70 80 70
SSI 84 74 88 73 / 70 60 80 80
JAX 86 72 90 72 / 70 40 90 70
SGJ 87 73 90 73 / 60 30 90 60
GNV 90 72 88 72 / 70 60 70 40
OCF 89 73 87 74 / 70 50 60 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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