095
FXUS62 KJAX 291856
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
256 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
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- NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN: INLAND LOCATIONS BETWEEN U.S. HIGHWAY 301 AND
I-75. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING, WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES.
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. DAILY MARGINAL RISK OF
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AT URBAN AND NORMALLY FLOOD-PRONE, LOW-
LYING AREAS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN: INLAND LOCATIONS BETWEEN U.S. HIGHWAY 301 AND
I-75. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING, WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
(1020 MILLIBARS) WAS BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY. ALOFT...AN "OMEGA"
BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, FEATURING
TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF NATION AND ALSO EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES, WHILE RIDGING PREVAILS IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES,
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES . NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS NARROW RIDGE WAS STEERING A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS, WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THIS SHORTWAVE FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF. LATEST GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY DISPLAYS THIS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NICELY,
WITH PWATS MOSTLY IN THE 2 - 2.25 INCH RANGE THROUGHOUT OUR
AREA. CONVECTION WAS BLOSSOMING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST GA, AS WELL AS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO ALONG THE INLAND
MOVING GULF COAST SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND NATURE
COAST. OUTSIDE OF RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS, TEMPERATURES HAVE
GENERALLY WARMED TO THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 100.
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
INCREASE, WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY CONGEALING BETWEEN THE U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 AND INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDORS IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL TOWARDS SUNSET. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SLOW MOVING
DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS NEAR
THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST GA, ESPECIALLY FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS FROM WAYCROSS NORTHWARD. LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL PRESENT A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WHERE STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AT URBAN AND NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE, LOW-LYING
LOCATIONS. THE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW COULD SHIFT
CONVECTION THAT EXPANDS OVER INLAND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
FL BACK TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, ALTHOUGH
THESE LOCATIONS MAY BE CONVECTIVELY "WORKED OVER" AND MAY NOT
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS TONIGHT. WEAKENING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, WHILE DIFFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOWARDS
SUNRISE OVER APALACHEE BAY AND THE FL BIG BEND REGION. A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE STALLING FRONT, KEEPING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70-75
RANGE AREA-WIDE LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WET, STORMY WEEKEND.
- DAILY LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK.
A GENERALLY WET AND STORMY WEEKEND EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY,
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING SOME MINOR TEMPORARY
FLOODING ISSUES. SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL WITH A
FASTER INLAND PROGRESSING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE
MORNING WITH MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUNDAY, THE
LINGERING FRONT AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING MORE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT, ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST GENERALLY
NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE, BREEZY ENE WINDS DEVELOP INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST
FL RANGES FROM 1-3 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER END AMOUNTS
OF 3-6". ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS RAINFALL IS WELCOMED, TOO MUCH
TOO FAST ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGES AREAS WILL CAUSE BRIEF
FLOODING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DUE TO THE
RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALL. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO WELCOME THE RAINFALL, WITH 6 MONTH RAINFALL
DEPARTURES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA AND NORTHEAST FL ON THE
OF 4 TO 12 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE FOR HIGHS WITH PEAK VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BEFORE STORMS WITH HEAT INDICES
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO THE MID 70S TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WARMER WITH LESS STORM COVERAGE BY TUESDAY.
- COOLER, BREEZY & DRIER WITH INLAND STORM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHILE GRADUALLY SETTLING
SOUTHWARD. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A BROAD SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY MONDAY, WHICH COULD ENHANCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST NORTH OF THE
LOW CENTER & ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE WOULD BE
GREATEST. BY TUESDAY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHIFTING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH DRIER AIR (PWAT
FALLING BELOW 1 INCH) UNDER DRIER NW STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL
BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK
TOWARD CLIMO VALUES. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A MUCH DRIER
PATTERN UNFOLDS WITH BELOW NORMAL PWAT AND BREEZY ONSHORE,
EASTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION TUESDAY, THEN THE RIDGE SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST BUILDING
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC SEA BOARD INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK. LOOKING DRIER WITH PLEASANT, NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND MILD LOWS IN THE 60S TO
70S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
NEAR THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS, SSI AND SGJ WILL PUSH SLOWLY
SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE INLAND MOVING GULF COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD
APPROACH THE GNV TERMINAL TOWARDS OR AFTER 22Z. TEMPO GROUPS FOR
BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS AND IFR CONDITIONS DURING
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WERE USED AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS, SSI
AND SGJ THROUGH AROUND 22-23Z. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EXTEND
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT GNV, WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
THROUGH AROUND 04Z. CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD AND AWAY
FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS TOWARDS 00Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT VQQ AFTER 04Z SATURDAY, WITH CONFIDENCE NOW HIGH
ENOUGH TO FORECAST LOWER MVFR CEILINGS OF 1,000 - 2,000 FEET
ELSEWHERE, BEGINNING BY 09Z. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING MAY
IMPACT THE GNV TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY SHOWER COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT AND WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THIS
FRONT STALLING NEAR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA BORDER ON SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING SOUTH OF
OUR LOCAL WATERS BY MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE,
CREATING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY EVENING
AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH GENERAL WIND FORECASTS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND SEAS AT AREA BUOYS ARE 3 FT OR
LESS. STILL LINGERING WIND-SEA SWELLS ABOUT 8 OR 9 SECONDS, AND
SURF OF AVERAGING ABOUT 2 FT, POSSIBLY 3 FT AT THE MOST. MOST OF
THE ENERGY FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION SO LONGSHORE
CURRENT WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH. ALL IN ALL, A LOW-END MODERATE
RISK FRIDAY, AND MAY TREND A LITTLE LOWER ON SATURDAY GIVEN
OFFSHORE FLOW AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWER SEAS/SURF.
FIRE WEATHER
A GENERALLY WET AND STORMY WEEKEND EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY,
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING SOME MINOR TEMPORARY
FLOODING ISSUES. SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL WITH A
FASTER INLAND PROGRESSING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE
MORNING WITH MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUNDAY, THE
LINGERING FRONT AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL BRING MORE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES. LOWER DAYTIME DISPERSIONS BELOW 30 UNITS ON
SUNDAY NEAR THE MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE WHERE WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER. NORTH OF THE FRONT, ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA AND PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST GENERALLY NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE,
BREEZY ENE WINDS DEVELOP INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY FALLS. ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 86 68 81 / 50 60 70 80
SSI 74 88 72 83 / 40 60 70 80
JAX 72 89 71 85 / 50 80 70 90
SGJ 74 89 73 86 / 60 70 50 90
GNV 72 88 72 88 / 70 60 30 90
OCF 73 87 73 88 / 40 60 30 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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