529
FXUS62 KJAX 292346
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
746 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN:
INLAND BETWEEN ABOUT HWY 301 & I-75. STRONG GUSTS AROUND 40
MPH, LOCALIZED FLOODING
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD 1-3 RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS. DAILY MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AND FLOOD-PRONE AREAS
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
EXTEND THROUGH 02Z AT GNV. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE BETWEEN 02Z
AND 04Z BETWEEN I-75 AND HIGHWAY 301. INTERMITTENT STRATIFORM
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR FL TERMINALS THROUGH 02Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT VQQ AFTER 04Z SATURDAY, WITH CONFIDENCE NOW HIGH
ENOUGH TO FORECAST LOWER MVFR CEILINGS OF 1,000 - 2,000 FEET
ELSEWHERE, BEGINNING BY 09Z. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING MAY
IMPACT THE GNV TERMINAL AFTER 13Z. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INDICATE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VICINITY SHOWER COVERAGE
BEFORE 17Z. BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z, RISK FOR TSTMS WILL INCREASE BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT BETTER CHANCES LOOK AFTER 19Z
FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH TEMPOS 19-23Z FOR NOW.
MARINE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT AND WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THIS
FRONT STALLING NEAR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA BORDER ON SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING SOUTH OF
OUR LOCAL WATERS BY MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE,
CREATING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY EVENING
AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: WITH GENERAL WIND FORECASTS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND SEAS AT AREA BUOYS ARE 3 FT OR LESS. STILL
LINGERING WIND-SEA SWELLS ABOUT 8 OR 9 SECONDS, AND SURF OF
AVERAGING ABOUT 2 FT, POSSIBLY 3 FT AT THE MOST. MOST OF THE ENERGY
FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION SO LONGSHORE CURRENT WILL BE
TOWARD THE NORTH. ALL IN ALL, A LOW-END MODERATE RISK FRIDAY, AND
MAY TREND A LITTLE LOWER ON SATURDAY GIVEN OFFSHORE FLOW AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWER SEAS/SURF.
FIRE WEATHER
A GENERALLY WET AND STORMY WEEKEND EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES.
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY,
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING SOME MINOR TEMPORARY FLOODING
ISSUES. SATURDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL WITH A FASTER INLAND
PROGRESSING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE MORNING WITH MORE
COVERAGE OF STORMS TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGRISK FOR TSTMS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT BETTER CHANCES
LOOK TO HOLD NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
PROB30S 16-19Z WILL HOLD FOR NOW. ANY TSTM RISK SHOULD END BY
19-20Z. . SUNDAY, THE LINGERING FRONT AND A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING MORE ROUNDS OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. LOWER DAYTIME
DISPERSIONS BELOW 30 UNITS ON SUNDAY NEAR THE MEANDERING FRONTAL
ZONE WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. NORTH OF THE FRONT, ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST GA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST GENERALLY NORTH
OF ST. AUGUSTINE, BREEZY ENE WINDS DEVELOP INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY FALLS. ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 86 68 81 / 50 60 70 80
SSI 74 88 72 83 / 40 60 70 80
JAX 72 89 71 85 / 50 80 70 90
SGJ 74 89 73 86 / 60 70 50 90
GNV 72 88 72 88 / 70 60 30 90
OCF 73 87 73 88 / 30 60 30 80
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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