228
FXUS62 KJAX 300632
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
232 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WET PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN
CONCERNS: STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH, LOCALIZED FLOODING
- ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES MONDAY
- LONG TERM EXCEPTION TO EXTREME DROUGHT
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WET, STORMY
- LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK CONTINUES TODAY/TONIGHT
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN AREA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WE
CONTINUE IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS OF ABOUT 2 INCHES. FLOW
WILL BE STRONGER FROM THE WEST TODAY BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY, STILL LOOKS
LIKE SOME POSSIBLE MINOR TEMPORARY FLOODING ISSUES TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN MIDDAY NEAR THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
AND PROBABLY NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ALL ACTIVITY GENERALLY MOVES EASTWARD UP TO 20-25 MPH SO THE
FLOODING THREAT, AT LEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS, WILL BE LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. BEST CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF I-10
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NRN 2/3RDS OF
THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT LARGELY DUE TO THE A FASTER
STORM MOTION ON TOP OF THE OUTFLOW WINDS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL STAY
ELEVATED IN THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE OVER
INLAND NORTHEAST FL DUE TO ENHANCED FLOW OFF THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO THE MID 70S TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WET, STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
- DAILY LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER NEAR THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM, WITH A NUDGE TOWARDS THE SOUTH EXPECTED ON SUNDAY,
SETTLING THE BOUNDARY ALMOST DIRECTLY ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS PWATS REMAIN IN THE 2"+ RANGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
"WAVE" MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
COMPLICATED, AS A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS AS A NORTHEASTERLY "SURGE" TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS
BEYOND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA CLOSER TO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
HOWEVER, THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND WITHIN THE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FLOW, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN ANY T'STORMS NEAR COASTAL AREAS LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING, AS
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER
OVERALL SUNDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WHERE THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. LOOKING AT LOW
TO MID 80S NORTH AND EAST, AND MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH AND WEST.
SOME LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
EAST. LOWS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST.
MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL NUDGE BACK TOWARDS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
ALMOST AS QUICK AS IT NUDGED SOUTH ON SUNDAY, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE TOWARDS A WEST
TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION, WHICH WILL COMPLICATE SHOWER AND T'STORM
COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT MORE CONTINENTAL AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST YOU GO, WITH MODELS LIKE THE GFS DROPPING PWATS TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY, STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THESE AREAS, THOUGH LOOKING LIKE THE
BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THEREFORE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TOWARDS THE COAST AND OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST FL ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A GULF SEA BREEZE RATHER QUICKLY MOVING
ACROSS THESE AREAS AND TOWARDS THE NEARLY PINNED ATLANTIC BREEZE.
THEREFORE, THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST IS MORE OF THE "FOCUS
AREA" FOR STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL WHERE THIS COLLISION OCCURS. HIGH
TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE MORE UNIFORM WITH THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH, WITH
WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED AND POSSIBLY A FEW READINGS AT
OR JUST ABOVE 90. SIMILARLY, A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
T'STORM MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT, AS SIMILAR
LOW TEMPS TO SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WARMER WITH LESS STORM COVERAGE TUESDAY
- COOLER, BREEZY & DRIER WITH INLAND STORM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
THERE IS AT LEAST DECENT AGREEMENT IN LONG TERM GUIDANCE WITH
RESPECT TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PROGRESSING ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS AND LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN
DISCREPANCY IS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT PROGRESSES,
AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MOST
"REASONABLE" CONSENSUS WILL BE AT LEAST A DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF
SHOWER AND T'STORM COVERAGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY THE
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO WHERE A DRIER AND BREEZIER HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCE OCCURS. MOISTURE AND THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF THAT GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY FALL CLOSE TO OUR BELOW CLIMO WEDNESDAY -
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
LOW CIGS AND VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR AND IFR FOR THE JAX TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL CIG RESTRICTIONS FOR SGJ, GNV, AND
SSI OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT PATCHY
RAIN IN THE AREA AND IS SHIFTING EASTWARD, WITH GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND. WITH DAYTIME HEATING, CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE WITH
ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY, WITH TEMPO AND PROB GROUPS
IN PLACE FOR MVFR TSRA. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE IFR
VSBY. LINGERING CONVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MARINE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
WATERS ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AT
TIMES, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY AGAIN AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK AREA LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS. A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY, WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL
WATERS BY MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, CREATING BREEZY WINDS
AT TIMES BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH SURF
LIKELY TO BE BELOW 2 FT WITH BUOYS SHOWING 1.5 FT SEAS. THERE IS
A LINGERING WIND-SEA SWELLS OF ABOUT 9 SECONDS. THE RISK MAY
BEGIN TO RISE BACK UP TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED SURF.
FIRE WEATHER
A GENERALLY WET AND STORMY WEEKEND EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES. TODAY,
SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL WITH A GULF SEA BREEZE PROGRESSING INLAND
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUNDAY, THE LINGERING FRONT WILL DROP
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH, AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, BRINGING MORE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD TODAY
BEFORE MORE PATCHES OF POOR DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NEAR
THE MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. EXACTLY
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION, AS FAR INTERIOR GA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY, WHEREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE OCALA NATIONAL
FOREST, WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD, NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN MID WEEK AND LOWERS RAIN CHANCES.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY FALLS. ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 85 70 82 69 / 70 50 90 60
SSI 87 73 84 74 / 70 70 90 80
JAX 88 72 86 72 / 70 50 90 60
SGJ 88 73 87 73 / 80 50 80 60
GNV 88 72 89 72 / 70 20 70 30
OCF 87 73 88 74 / 50 30 60 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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