289
FXUS62 KJAX 301239
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST AREA-WIDE. STRONGER STORM
HAZARDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING: WIND GUSTS
OF 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES NEXT
WEEK.
- DRYING TREND TAKES SHAPE TOWARDS MIDWEEK, WITH BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST AREA-
WIDE. STRONGER STORM HAZARDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING: WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN AREA WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, WE CONTINUE IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS OF
ABOUT 2 INCHES. FLOW WILL BE STRONGER FROM THE WEST TODAY BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY, STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME POSSIBLE MINOR
TEMPORARY FLOODING ISSUES TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN MIDDAY NEAR THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND PROBABLY NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALL ACTIVITY
GENERALLY MOVES EASTWARD UP TO 20-25 MPH SO THE FLOODING THREAT,
AT LEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS, WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. POPS
WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. BEST CHANCE OF STRONGER STORMS
AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF I-10 THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WPC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NRN 2/3RDS OF
THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS
SHOW STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT LARGELY DUE TO THE A
FASTER STORM MOTION ON TOP OF THE OUTFLOW WINDS. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL STAY ELEVATED IN THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LATE OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL DUE TO ENHANCED FLOW OFF
THE GULF.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO THE MID 70S TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOCALIZED DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WET, STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST AREA-WIDE.
- LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK, ESPECIALLY AT URBAN AND NORMALLY
FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER NEAR THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM, WITH A NUDGE TOWARDS THE SOUTH
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, SETTLING THE BOUNDARY ALMOST DIRECTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS PWATS REMAIN IN THE 2"+ RANGE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL "WAVE" MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE COMPLICATED, AS A MORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AS A NORTHEASTERLY "SURGE" TRIES TO BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH NOT MAKING MUCH
PROGRESS BEYOND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA CLOSER TO MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. HOWEVER, THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH INLAND WITHIN THE SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC FLOW, WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME ENHANCEMENT IN ANY T'STORMS NEAR COASTAL AREAS LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING, AS SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW. HIGHS WILL BE A
BIT COOLER OVERALL SUNDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WHERE THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S NORTH AND EAST, AND MID TO UPPER 80S
SOUTH AND WEST. SOME LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED T'STORMS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST. LOWS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S ARE FORECAST.
MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL NUDGE BACK TOWARDS JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION ALMOST AS QUICK AS IT NUDGED SOUTH ON SUNDAY, AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW
MORE TOWARDS A WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION, WHICH WILL
COMPLICATE SHOWER AND T'STORM COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. GUIDANCE IS
HINTING THAT MORE CONTINENTAL AND SLIGHTLY DRIER FLOW WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO, WITH
MODELS LIKE THE GFS DROPPING PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARBY, STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY
NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THESE AREAS, THOUGH LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THEREFORE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TOWARDS THE COAST AND OVER MOST OF NORTHEAST FL ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A GULF SEA BREEZE RATHER QUICKLY MOVING
ACROSS THESE AREAS AND TOWARDS THE NEARLY PINNED ATLANTIC
BREEZE. THEREFORE, THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST IS MORE OF THE
"FOCUS AREA" FOR STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL WHERE THIS COLLISION
OCCURS. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE MORE UNIFORM WITH THE FRONT
FURTHER NORTH, WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED AND
POSSIBLY A FEW READINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE 90. SIMILARLY, A FEW
SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED T'STORM MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT, AS SIMILAR LOW TEMPS TO SUNDAY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WARMER WITH LESS STORM COVERAGE TUESDAY.
- COOLER, BREEZY & DRIER WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, THERE IS AT LEAST DECENT AGREEMENT IN LONG TERM
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
PROGRESSING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS AND LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN DISCREPANCY IS WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR
SOUTH THIS FRONT PROGRESSES, AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MOST "REASONABLE" CONSENSUS WILL BE
AT LEAST A DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND T'STORM
COVERAGE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER NORTH YOU
GO WHERE A DRIER AND BREEZIER HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE OCCURS.
MOISTURE AND THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK, PENDING THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GULF THAT GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TUESDAY
WILL GENERALLY FALL CLOSE TO OUR BELOW CLIMO WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
LIGHT RAINFALL WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 15Z. OTHERWISE, LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT
THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS, SSI, AND SGJ WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO MVFR BY 16Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AT GNV
BY 13Z. MVFR CEILINGS OF 1,500 - 2,500 FEET ARE LIKELY TO
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR AFTER 19Z. TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS, ALONG WITH IFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, WERE
INCLUDED AT EACH TERMINAL, GENERALLY FROM AROUND 20Z THROUGH
AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
TOWARDS 04Z SUNDAY AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES, WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT VQQ DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MARINE
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
INTO THE AREA WATERS ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS AT TIMES, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY AGAIN AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WATERS. A
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY
STALLING SOUTH OF OUR LOCAL WATERS BY MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE, CREATING BREEZY WINDS AT TIMES BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH SURF OF
LIKELY TO BE BELOW 2 FT WITH BUOYS SHOWING 1.5 FT SEAS. THERE IS
A LINGERING WIND-SEA SWELLS OF ABOUT 9 SECONDS. THE RISK MAY
BEGIN TO RISE BACK UP TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED SURF.
FIRE WEATHER
A GENERALLY WET AND STORMY WEEKEND EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES.
TODAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL WITH A GULF SEA BREEZE
PROGRESSING INLAND LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUNDAY, THE
LINGERING FRONT WILL DROP SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH, AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BRINGING MORE ROUNDS OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISPERSIONS WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD TODAY BEFORE MORE PATCHES OF
POOR DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NEAR THE MEANDERING
FRONTAL ZONE WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. EXACTLY WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY STALLS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION, AS FAR INTERIOR GA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY, WHEREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE
OCALA NATIONAL FOREST, WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD, NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN MID WEEK AND LOWERS RAIN CHANCES.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY FALLS. ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 85 70 82 69 / 80 50 90 60
SSI 87 73 84 74 / 70 70 90 80
JAX 88 72 86 72 / 80 50 90 60
SGJ 88 73 87 73 / 70 40 80 60
GNV 88 72 89 72 / 70 20 70 30
OCF 87 73 88 74 / 40 30 60 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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