580
FXUS62 KJAX 301856
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
256 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST AREA-WIDE. STRONGER STORM
HAZARDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING: WIND GUSTS
OF 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES NEXT
WEEK.
- DRYING TREND TAKES SHAPE TOWARDS MIDWEEK, WITH BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
MAIN HAZARDS: HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A REMNANT, DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONED NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY, CANADA, WAS
PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALOFT...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WAS DIGGING A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS THE THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
OTHERWISE, DEEP AND UNSTABLE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS LOCALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST GOES-EAST
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA, WITH
PWATS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1.9 - 2.1 INCHES. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN HAS
KICKED OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH
STRONGER STORMS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ALAPAHA RIVER TO THE WEST
OF HOMERVILLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA, WITH
BREAKS IN THE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AT
19Z TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S OUTSIDE OF RAIN-COOLED
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN AN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WESTERLY JET
OF 25-35 KNOTS AT 850 MILLIBARS (AROUND 5,000 FEET) SHOULD
CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO PULSE AND BECOME STRONG, ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND ALSO WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE
RANDOMLY. STORMS THAT PULSE AND BECOME STRONG LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES, AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF
40-50 MPH. CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR PREDAWN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GA
AS "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL TO THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE
OVERNIGHT AS A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS PREVAILS ACROSS OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WET, STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES.
- DAILY LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK.
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE BORDER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING WAVES
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PWATS SUNDAY OVER 2.0" WILL
KEEP THE LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT ONGOING OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER IS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING A
'MARGINAL' RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA LIKELY SEEING HIGHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SUNDAY WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM
PUSHING FAR INLAND, INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR I-95
LATER IN THE DAY.
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY, BRINGING IN
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR (PWATS NEAR 1.5-1.75") OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, LOWERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE TO ABOUT 30-50%.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH POPS CONTINUE WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS BOTH DAYS NEAR I-95 AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
HEAVY CLOUD COVER AND AN EARLY START TO RAIN SUNDAY WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA REACHING 90 DEGREES. MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
WARMER, IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MILD, IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WARMER WITH LESS STORM COVERAGE TUESDAY.
- COOLER, BREEZY & DRIER WITH INLAND STORM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOWER (30-50%) RAIN
CHANCES INLAND, WITH HIGHER CHANCES (~60%) CLOSER TO I-95 AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEDNESDAY ONWARD,
IT LOOKS TO BE DRIER AND 'COOLER' AFTER A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALLS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AREAS SOUTH OF THE STATE BORDER WILL SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE FRONT MAKES IT'S WAY
SOUTHWARD. THURSDAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS DRIER AIR STAYS OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
KEEPING PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S, AND MILD
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST. TOWARDS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, THAT FRONT MAY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD, BUT THERE
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
CONVECTION WILL OTHERWISE INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS AND IFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE
INCLUDED AT THE GNV TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 22Z AND THROUGH
AROUND 00Z/01Z AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE WAS
ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS AT SSI AT THIS TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS
IS FORECAST AFTER 02Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED AT VQQ
AFTER 06Z. MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS TOWARDS 13Z SUNDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE GNV TERMINAL BEFORE 18Z. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY WAS TOO LOW
TO CURRENTLY INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR THE TIME PERIOD AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH AROUND 23Z, FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING SPEEDS THIS
EVENING. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE TO THE 5-10
KNOT RANGE AFTER 13Z SUNDAY.
MARINE
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THIS FRONT
STALLS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SURGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD,
CREATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS.
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH SURF OF
LIKELY TO BE BELOW 2 FT WITH BUOYS SHOWING 1.5 FT SEAS. THERE IS
A LINGERING WIND-SEA SWELLS OF ABOUT 9 SECONDS. THE RISK MAY
BEGIN TO RISE BACK UP TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED SURF.
FIRE WEATHER
A GENERALLY WET AND STORMY WEEKEND EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES.
SUNDAY, THE LINGERING FRONT WILL DROP SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH,
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BRINGING
MORE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. PATCHES OF POOR DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
NEAR THE MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER.
EXACTLY WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN
EXPECTED WIND DIRECTION, AS FAR INTERIOR GA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SUNDAY, WHEREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS
THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST, WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD, NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN MID WEEK AND LOWERS RAIN CHANCES.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY FALLS. ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 82 68 85 / 50 90 50 40
SSI 74 84 74 86 / 40 80 70 70
JAX 72 87 72 89 / 50 90 60 60
SGJ 74 87 73 89 / 50 80 40 70
GNV 73 89 72 89 / 20 60 30 70
OCF 73 88 74 88 / 30 60 40 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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