780
FXUS62 KJAX 310003
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
803 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST AREA-WIDE. STRONGER STORM
HAZARDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING: WIND GUSTS
OF 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK BEGINS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES NEXT
WEEK.
- DRYING TREND TAKES SHAPE TOWARDS MIDWEEK, WITH BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS CONVECTION WITH THUNDER
HAS ENDED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A LULL IN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH INLAND
LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT VQQ AND GNV AFTER 06Z WITH TEMPO
RESTRICTIONS FOR LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS BELOW 0.5 KFT FROM 08Z TO
12Z. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST AROUND 5 KNOTS NEAR
THE COAST TURNING CALM INLAND AFTER 06Z.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND SINKS INTO THE GA COAST WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER 14Z. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST, WINDS WILL TURN FROM WESTERLY TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY 6-10
KNOTS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TO THE NC COAST, WHILE INLAND WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY. AFTER 18Z,
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROMPT VCTS WITH SHRA AT SSI WITH
EARLIER FRONT ARRIVAL. PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND
IFR VISIBILIIES FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MARINE
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AS THIS FRONT STALLS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SURGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, CREATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH SURF OF
LIKELY TO BE BELOW 2 FT WITH BUOYS SHOWING 1.5 FT SEAS. THERE IS A
LINGERING WIND-SEA SWELLS OF ABOUT 9 SECONDS. THE RISK MAY BEGIN TO
RISE BACK UP TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED SURF.
FIRE WEATHER
A GENERALLY WET AND STORMY WEEKEND EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL ZONE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES. SUNDAY,
THE LINGERING FRONT WILL DROP SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH, AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BRINGING MORE ROUNDS OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PATCHES OF POOR DISPERSIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NEAR THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. EXACTLY WHERE
THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN EXPECTED WIND
DIRECTION, AS FAR INTERIOR GA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY, WHEREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE OCALA NATIONAL
FOREST, WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD, NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T'STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN MID WEEK AND LOWERS RAIN CHANCES.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAIN RECENTLY FALLS. ERRATIC WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 82 68 85 / 50 90 50 40
SSI 74 84 74 86 / 40 80 70 70
JAX 72 87 72 89 / 50 90 60 60
SGJ 74 87 73 89 / 50 80 40 70
GNV 73 89 72 89 / 20 60 30 70
OCF 73 88 74 88 / 30 60 40 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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