902
FXUS62 KJAX 310139
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WIDESPREAD 1-3 RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS. DAILY MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AND FLOOD-PRONE AREAS
UPDATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY ENDED ACROSS THE AREA, A
LITTLE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED WITH EXCEPTION OF A BAND OF SHOWERS
THAT HAVE FORMED ALONG A BOUNDARY NEAR FERNANDINA BEACH/AMELIA
ISLAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE A LITTLE INSTABILITY LINGERED
FROM THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOW IN THE LOW 70S INLAND
WITH A FEW SPOTS JUST BELOW 70 OVER SE GA AND WARMING TO THE MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS 4-8 MPH ALONG THE
COAST AND NE FL SOUTH OF I-10. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING AND CALM WINDS OVERLAP (MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 INTO SE GA) AS A FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MAIN HAZARDS:
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
AND WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A REMNANT, DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POSITIONED NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY, CANADA, WAS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALOFT...A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WAS DIGGING
A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OTHERWISE, DEEP AND UNSTABLE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS LOCALLY IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. LATEST
GOES-EAST DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA,
WITH PWATS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1.9 - 2.1 INCHES. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN HAS
KICKED OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH
STRONGER STORMS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ALAPAHA RIVER TO THE WEST OF
HOMERVILLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA, WITH BREAKS IN THE
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AT 19Z TO REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 80S OUTSIDE OF RAIN-COOLED LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN AN
INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WESTERLY JET OF
25-35 KNOTS AT 850 MILLIBARS (AROUND 5,000 FEET) SHOULD CAUSE A FEW
STORMS TO PULSE AND BECOME STRONG, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AND
ALSO WHERE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE RANDOMLY. STORMS THAT PULSE
AND BECOME STRONG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES, AND
DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-50 MPH. CONVECTION SHOULD MOSTLY MOVE OFFSHORE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR PREDAWN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GA AS
"BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL TO THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT AS A
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS PREVAILS ACROSS OUR AREA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK FROM NEAR THE GA/FL LINE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, INTO CENTRAL FL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, PROVIDING FOR AN ABOVE
AVERAGE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY TIME HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NE FL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO AREA WEDNESDAY, THEN BUILD
OVERHEAD LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS NE FL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. OTHERWISE, THIS WILL
LARGELY BE A DRY PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD,
BUT RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LULL IN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE
COAST WITH LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT VQQ AND GNV AFTER 06Z WITH
TEMPO RESTRICTIONS FOR LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS BELOW 0.5 KFT FROM 08Z TO
12Z. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST AROUND 5 KNOTS NEAR THE
COAST TURNING CALM INLAND AFTER 06Z.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND SINKS INTO THE GA COAST WITH
SHOWERS INCREASING AFTER 14Z. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST, WINDS WILL TURN FROM WESTERLY TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY 6-10
KNOTS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TO
THE NC COAST, WHILE INLAND WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY. AFTER 18Z, STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROMPT VCTS WITH SHRA AT SSI WITH EARLIER FRONT
ARRIVAL. PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES FROM
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
MARINE
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AS THIS FRONT STALLS OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SURGE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, CREATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS. BREEZY ONSHORE
WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH SURF OF
LIKELY TO BE BELOW 2 FT WITH BUOYS SHOWING 1.5 FT SEAS. THERE IS A
LINGERING WIND-SEA SWELLS OF ABOUT 9 SECONDS. THE RISK MAY BEGIN TO
RISE BACK UP TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY HIGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASED SURF.
FIRE WEATHER
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
PREVAILING.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 82 68 85 / 50 90 50 40
SSI 74 84 74 86 / 40 80 70 70
JAX 72 87 72 89 / 50 90 60 60
SGJ 74 87 73 89 / 40 80 40 70
GNV 73 89 72 89 / 20 60 30 70
OCF 73 88 74 88 / 40 60 40 60
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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