052
FXUS62 KJAX 310635
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN CONCERNS: LOCALIZED FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40-50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BE FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING.
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- WET AND STORM TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
- RAINFALL FLOODING RISK MAINLY FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHEAST GA
TODAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WITH
PWATS OF ABOUT 2 TO 2.3 INCHES; SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE GOING
SOUTH TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL FL. IN ADDITION, A FRONTAL WAVE IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT TO THE SC COASTAL AREAS. INSTABILITY IS NOT TOO GREAT
TODAY, BUT UPWARDS OF ABOUT 1600- 1900 J/KG. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OVERALL LIGHT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW OF 10-15
KT WILL FAVOR SOME BACK-BUILDING / TRAINING CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS ARE FAVORED
FROM ABOUT I-10 NORTHWARD, WITH ANOTHER HIGHER POP ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN DUE TO SEA BREEZE AND RIVER
BREEZE INTERACTIONS. WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR SOUTHEAST GA/FAR NORTHEAST FL (NORTH OF I-10), AND A MARGINAL
RISK FOR REST OF NORTHEAST FL THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL, WE EXPECT
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA JUST SOUTH OF WHERE THE FRONTAL
ZONE WILL BE. LOSS OF HEATING AND DECREASED INSTABILITY WILL
LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT, BUT PROBABLY SOME
LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FADE OVERNIGHT.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP FOR
SOUTHEAST GA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN AND MID 80S SOUTH OF WAYCROSS. NORTHEAST FL MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT UPPER 60S INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK FROM NEAR THE GA/FL LINE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, INTO CENTRAL FL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, PROVIDING FOR AN ABOVE
AVERAGE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY TIME HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NE FL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO AREA WEDNESDAY, THEN BUILD
OVERHEAD LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS NE FL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. OTHERWISE, THIS WILL
LARGELY BE A DRY PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD,
BUT RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST GA AREA
WITH A FEW SHOWERS KICKING OFF THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. IN
ADDITION, AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR AND IFR ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. MVFR CIGS STILL LIKELY AT TIMES FROM 12Z-16Z AS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS START TO FORM. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION
WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWER AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SO AFTER 17Z/18Z, STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROMPT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TERMINALS. TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR TSRA ARE
IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AS WELL WITH SOME
PREVAILING LIGHT AREAS OF RAIN LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG
THIS FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF AREA WATERS EARLY
MONDAY, AND PUSH THE WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WATERS ON TUESDAY, LIKELY PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
FROM TUESDAY TO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, ROUNDS OF DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
RIP CURRENTS: GENERALLY LOW-END MODERATE RISK MUCH OF TODAY. RIP
CURRENT RISK MAY BEGIN TO RISE A LITTLE FURTHER BY MONDAY. PROBABLY
LOOKING AT INCREASED RISK TO MODERATE AND HIGH FROM TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
PREVAILING.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 69 86 69 / 90 60 20 20
SSI 84 75 86 75 / 80 70 50 20
JAX 87 72 88 73 / 80 70 60 20
SGJ 88 74 90 74 / 80 50 70 20
GNV 89 73 89 73 / 50 20 70 20
OCF 88 75 88 74 / 50 20 70 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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