035
FXUS62 KJAX 311207
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
807 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN CONCERNS: LOCALIZED FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40-50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BE FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING.
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
UPDATE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CURRENT GOES ANALYSIS SHOWS PWATS NEAR 2.0" (INCREASING FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON) GENERALLY I-10 NORTHWARD, WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS TODAY. ELEVATED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ALSO
EXIST NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WHERE SEA BREEZES INTERACT
DUE TO WESTERLY WINDS. STORMS WILL LINGER AFTER SUNSET FOR A FEW
HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY LARGELY SHIFTING TO STRATIFORM RAIN TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S NORTH OF I-10, WARMER SOUTHWARD
WHERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK FROM NEAR THE GA/FL LINE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, INTO CENTRAL FL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, PROVIDING FOR AN ABOVE
AVERAGE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY TIME HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NE FL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO AREA WEDNESDAY, THEN BUILD
OVERHEAD LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS NE FL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. OTHERWISE, THIS WILL
LARGELY BE A DRY PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD,
BUT RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS MAY BE PRESENT THIS MORNING. FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD TO MORE SHOWER AND DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SO AFTER 17Z/18Z, STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROMPT SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR TSRA ARE IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT DUVAL NORTHWARD AS WELL WITH SOME PREVAILING LIGHT AREAS OF
RAIN LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER 06Z, MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL THE SITES OTHER THAN SGJ, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AT SSI EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS A FRONT STALLS OVER OUR
AREA BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SURGE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEDGES
DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, CREATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
RIP CURRENTS: GENERALLY LOW-END MODERATE RISK MUCH OF TODAY. RIP
CURRENT RISK MAY BEGIN TO RISE A LITTLE FURTHER BY MONDAY. PROBABLY
LOOKING AT INCREASED RISK TO MODERATE AND HIGH FROM TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
PREVAILING.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
EACH MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 69 86 69 / 90 60 20 20
SSI 84 75 86 75 / 80 70 50 20
JAX 87 72 88 73 / 80 70 60 20
SGJ 88 74 90 74 / 80 50 70 20
GNV 89 73 89 73 / 50 20 70 20
OCF 88 75 88 74 / 50 20 70 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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