286
FXUS62 KJAX 311728
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN CONCERNS: LOCALIZED FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40-50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BE FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING.
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- RAINFALL FLOODING RISK MAINLY FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD AND
ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST
WITH PWATS AROUND 2.0" AND RISING LATER TODAY, AS WELL AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW, THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR FLOODING
TODAY. ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 HAS RECEIVED THE MOST ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONT IS
SITTING. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR
A 'SLIGHT' RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY, FORECAST RAINFALL
TOTALS TODAY THERE ARE GENERALLY 0.5-1.5" HOWEVER LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE CLOSER TO I-95 AND THE ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY, WHERE THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH FAR INLAND
AND INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
CONVECTION WILL LINGER AFTER SUNSET, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT IN
SOUTHEAST GA. CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT ONWARD, ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY BE
STRATIFORM SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST, WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THE SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPOS ARE
IN PLACE FOR BEST TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES OUTSIDE THOSE
WINDOWS. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TOWARDS
SUNRISE MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING
AT ALL LOCATIONS, WITH SSI HAVING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR.
MARINE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS A FRONT STALLS OVER OUR AREA
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SURGE IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEDGES DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD, CREATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS.
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.
RIP CURRENTS: GENERALLY LOW-END MODERATE RISK MUCH OF TODAY. RIP
CURRENT RISK MAY BEGIN TO RISE A LITTLE FURTHER BY MONDAY. PROBABLY
LOOKING AT INCREASED RISK TO MODERATE AND HIGH FROM TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST GA
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10 WILL CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES,
WITH FAIR VALUES FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL AND POOR TO LOW VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION ON MONDAY, CREATING GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES, WITH AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS
DEVELOPING AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS THEN FILTERING INTO
OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY.
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS SHIFTING TO
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 70 86 69 / 90 50 20 20
SSI 82 75 86 75 / 80 60 50 20
JAX 85 73 88 73 / 80 60 60 20
SGJ 87 74 90 74 / 70 60 70 20
GNV 88 74 89 73 / 50 20 70 20
OCF 88 74 88 74 / 50 10 70 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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