053
FXUS62 KJAX 311851
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN CONCERNS: LOCALIZED FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40-50 MPH, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BE FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING.
- MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- RAINFALL FLOODING RISK MAINLY FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD AND
ALONG THE NORTHEAST FL COAST
WITH PWATS AROUND 2.0" AND RISING LATER TODAY, AS WELL AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW, THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR FLOODING
TODAY. ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 HAS RECEIVED THE MOST ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONT IS
SITTING. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR
A 'SLIGHT' RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY, FORECAST RAINFALL
TOTALS TODAY THERE ARE GENERALLY 0.5-1.5" HOWEVER LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 4" ARE POSSIBLE.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE CLOSER TO I-95 AND THE ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY, WHERE THE GULF SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH FAR INLAND
AND INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
CONVECTION WILL LINGER AFTER SUNSET, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT IN
SOUTHEAST GA. CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT ONWARD, ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY BE
STRATIFORM SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF WAYCROSS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP AT COASTAL LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY
EVENING, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING OUR
LOCAL WATERS
DEEP AND UNSTABLE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY BETWEEN STOUT RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DIGGING TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
A DECELERATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER
WILL PROGRESS OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THIS FRONTAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ORGANIZING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
SUBTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MASS INTO SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, DROPPING PWATS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. OTHERWISE, DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE STALLING BOUNDARY FROM THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD, WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIR
MASS FILTERING INTO SOUTHEAST GA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED, EXCEPT ISOLATED FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF WAYCROSS. THE DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO OUR AREA MAY ENHANCE
THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS AS STORMS POTENTIALLY PULSE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA NEAR THE STALLED FRONT MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE, AND
SOME SLIGHT COOL AIR ADVECTION MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS. HIGHS ELSEWHERE SHOULD CLIMB TO
THE LOWER 90S, WITH A DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY DUE TO A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE BRINGING 90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES TO COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING
NEAR 100 BEFORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY. A SQUALL LINE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRECEDE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN AL, GA, AND THE FL PANHANDLE PER LATEST SHORT-TERM, HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD REMAIN
JUST WEST OF OUR AREA, CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL, AND ENOUGH CONVERGENCE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT TO DEVELOP WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS
ON TUESDAY ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL TO THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS OUR REGION.
DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL DRIVE
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND THEN THROUGH NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A 110-KNOT JET STREAK BASED AT
250 MILLIBARS (AROUND 35,000 FEET) OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY
EVENING, PLACING OUR REGION WITHIN THE ASCENDING REGION OF THIS
FEATURE. BREAKS IN THE MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE
OUR ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, AND STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO WEDGE DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
CREATING ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PRELIMINARILY PLACED MOST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL WITHIN A "MARGINAL" RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-
60 MPH, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES, AND
POSSIBLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WILL EXIST WITHIN ANY STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND PUSH SOUTHWARD. A
POTENTIALLY EARLIER AFTERNOON ONSET OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
AGAIN KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
WAYCROSS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. HEAT
INDICES MAY RISE TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-10 ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CONVECTION ARRIVES LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON.
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHILE A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO
SOUTHEAST GA AFTER MIDNIGHT, ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TOWARDS
SUNRISE, TIGHTENING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CREATING BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA ON TUESDAY EVENING,
WITH THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING TO COASTAL NORTHEAST FL
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. DESPITE A NORTHEAST BREEZE AT INLAND LOCATIONS,
COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE LOWS DOWN TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ARRIVING
ELSEWHERE INLAND TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FL. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP
COASTAL LOWS CLOSER TO 70.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ANTICIPATED AT COASTAL LOCATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ARRIVES AREA-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- GRADUAL WARM-UP FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTH FL ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE
IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL
AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, PROVIDING OUR AREA
WITH ONE LAST GASP OF SPRING WEATHER THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY LOOSEN, KEEPING BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE ALONG THE I-
95 CORRIDOR FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGHS OF ONLY
AROUND 80 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10, WITH LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DROPPING LOWS TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10, WITH LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE INLAND.
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COASTAL LOWS CLOSER TO 70.
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST
BY THURSDAY EVENING, WITH RIDGING ALOFT THEN BUILDING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SLIDING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT A VERY DRY AIR MASS MAY PERSIST
ALL THE WAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FAR BELOW
NORMAL FOR OUR REGION. HIGHS WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S INLAND
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
AFTERNOON HIGHS APPROACHING 90 NEXT WEEKEND. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP COASTAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE UNUSUALLY DRY AIR
MASS WILL KEEP INLAND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP THROUGH THE 60S TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND. A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP COASTAL LOWS AROUND 70
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK, WARMING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
DIFFICULT TAF FORECAST, WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT THE SITES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPOS ARE
IN PLACE FOR BEST TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ALTHOUGH RAIN MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES OUTSIDE THOSE
WINDOWS. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TOWARDS
SUNRISE MONDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY MONDAY MORNING
AT ALL LOCATIONS, WITH SSI HAVING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR.
MARINE
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS A FRONT STALLS OVER OUR
AREA BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SURGE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEDGES
DOWN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD, CREATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL WATERS. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
RIP CURRENTS: GENERALLY LOW-END MODERATE RISK MUCH OF TODAY. RIP
CURRENT RISK MAY BEGIN TO RISE A LITTLE FURTHER BY MONDAY. PROBABLY
LOOKING AT INCREASED RISK TO MODERATE AND HIGH FROM TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST GA
- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. BREEZY WESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10 WILL CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES,
WITH FAIR VALUES FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL AND POOR TO LOW VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BREEZY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION ON MONDAY, CREATING GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES, WITH AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT INLAND
LOCATIONS. NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY SURFACE SPEEDS
DEVELOPING AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS THEN FILTERING INTO
OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY.
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS SHIFTING TO
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 70 86 69 86 / 50 30 20 80
SSI 74 88 75 86 / 70 40 20 80
JAX 73 90 73 90 / 50 40 10 80
SGJ 74 91 74 90 / 60 50 10 80
GNV 74 90 73 92 / 20 60 20 70
OCF 76 89 75 90 / 10 60 20 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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