550
FXUS62 KJAX 010616
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
216 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN
T-STORM CONCERNS TODAY: STRONG GUSTS 40-50 MPH, SMALL HAIL,
LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAINLY FOR
NORTHEAST FL.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK BEGINS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NOT AS STORMY TODAY BUT A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.
- PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HELP BRING DRIER AIR IN AS A WEAK COOL FRONT BOUNDARY,
INITIALLY NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR, BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS WILL
DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND TO 1.5
TO 2 INCHES IN NORTHEAST FL. THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONE WHERE CHANCES WILL BE AT
LEAST 30-50 PERCENT, MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO
ST AUGUSTINE. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF A
STRONG STORM OR TWO OVER NORTHEAST FL WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.
BY TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE MEAN 500 MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND THEN INTO AL AND GA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD INDUCE AT LEAST SOME SFC TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL
AND POTENTIALLY SOUTHEAST GA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, WE
COULD SEE CONVECTION REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST GA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT WARMER TODAY OWING TO LESS PRECIP
CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
EXPECTED. LOWS MILD AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S,
THOUGH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE NEARER THE COAST. PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE WILL LAY OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY, FOCUSED NEAR THE GA/FL LINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION
OF SURFACE INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
AVERAGE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH, THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL FL TUESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT, A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NE FL WEDNESDAY, WHILE
SE GA DRIES OUT.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS TUESDAY, TO BELOW
FOR WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, AS LOWER
DEWPOINTS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
BE MOST NOTICEABLE OVER SE GA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THIS WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PERIOD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY, THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, THE POTENTIAL WILL
BE TOO TO MENTION FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS
PERIOD, THEN CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER LATE TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME MORE
DISPERSED TOWARD EARLY MORNING. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS 12Z-16Z SO VCSH IS AT LEAST NEEDED. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
DOWN TO MVFR TO AS LOW AS LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE MID MORNING HOURS, LIKELY LIFTING
BY 15Z-16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT OUTSIDE THAT VFR CLOUDS. WILL LIKELY PLACE
IN PROB30 GROUPS FOR MVFR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHEAST FL TAFS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS INITIALLY
LIGHT/VARIABLE 5 KT, BECOMING PREVAILING WEST- SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 KT BY 12Z, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST 8-12G20KT DURING THE DAY.
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY, AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS ON
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, CREATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL
WATERS. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED AT TIMES.
RIP CURRENTS: GENERALLY LOW TO LOW-END MODERATE RISK FOR TODAY.
LOOKING AT INCREASED RISK TO MODERATE AND HIGH FROM TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS THIS WEEK
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL KEEP AREA WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR
LARGELY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA, THEN
MAINLY FOR NE FL WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 86 69 86 61 / 30 20 80 50
SSI 88 75 86 71 / 40 20 80 70
JAX 90 73 90 69 / 40 10 80 70
SGJ 91 74 90 71 / 50 10 80 80
GNV 90 73 92 68 / 60 20 70 70
OCF 89 75 90 70 / 60 20 70 70
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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