615
FXUS62 KJAX 011124
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
724 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN
T-STORM CONCERNS TODAY: STRONG GUSTS 40-50 MPH, SMALL HAIL,
LOCALIZED FLOODING, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING MAINLY FOR
NORTHEAST FL.
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK BEGINS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- NOT AS STORMY TODAY BUT A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.
A DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP BRING DRIER AIR IN AS A WEAK COOL
FRONT BOUNDARY, INITIALLY NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR, BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PWATS WILL DROP DOWN TO AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND
TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN NORTHEAST FL. THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONE WHERE CHANCES WILL BE AT LEAST 30-50
PERCENT, MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING.
BY TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE MEAN 500 MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND THEN INTO AL AND GA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD INDUCE AT LEAST SOME SFC TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL
AND POTENTIALLY SOUTHEAST GA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, WE
COULD SEE CONVECTION REDEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST GA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT WARMER TODAY OWING TO LESS PRECIP
CHANCES AND LESS CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
EXPECTED. LOWS MILD AGAIN TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S, SOME
MID 70S POSSIBLE NEARER THE COAST. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY, WITH STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE WILL LAY OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY, FOCUSED NEAR THE GA/FL LINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF SURFACE INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH, THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL FL TUESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT, A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NE FL WEDNESDAY, WHILE
SE GA DRIES OUT.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS TUESDAY, TO BELOW
FOR WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, AS LOWER
DEWPOINTS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL
BE MOST NOTICEABLE OVER SE GA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- THIS WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PERIOD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY, THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, THE POTENTIAL WILL
BE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THIS
PERIOD, THEN CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
MORNING MVFR TO IFR CEILING WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TOWARDS MID-MORNING,
AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FILL IN. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
GNV THIS MORNING, BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. PROB30S
ARE IN PLACE AT ALL THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON,
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS AT SSI DUE TO PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME. GUSTY WINDS WILL CALM AROUND SUNSET, WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING FOR THE INLAND SITES.
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY, AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS ON
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, CREATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT OUR LOCAL
WATERS. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES.
RIP CURRENTS: GENERALLY LOW TO LOW END MODERATE RISK FOR TODAY.
LOOKING AT INCREASED RISK TO MODERATE AND HIGH FROM TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS THIS WEEK
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL KEEP AREA WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL PROVIDE FOR LARGELY DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA, THEN
MAINLY FOR NE FL WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 87 70 86 59 / 10 10 90 50
SSI 87 75 85 70 / 30 20 90 80
JAX 89 72 89 67 / 30 10 90 90
SGJ 90 74 90 70 / 50 10 80 100
GNV 90 72 92 67 / 50 20 70 90
OCF 90 74 90 70 / 50 20 60 90
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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