849
FXUS62 KJAX 011845
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
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- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND DAMAGING WINDS
- STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT & WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGS IN DRIER AIR (PWATS NEAR 1.5"). ALONG AND SOUTH OF WHERE THE
FRONT SITS (SOUTH OF JACKSONVILLE), PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE AT
ABOUT 30-60% THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGHER AS YOU GO SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. LESS MOISTURE AND INCREASED WINDS
TODAY WILL LIMIT THE LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL WE'VE SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND EXPECT TOMORROW, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING NEAR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN HAZARDS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP AT COASTAL LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY
EVENING, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING OUR
LOCAL WATERS
- ROUGH, BUILDING SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES BY THE PREDAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH THIS BOUNDARY CROSSING
SOUTHEAST GA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN THROUGH NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DEEP TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP A 100-KNOT JET STREAK BASED AT 250 MILLIBARS (AROUND
35,000 FEET) NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING, PLACING OUR
REGION WITHIN THE ASCENDING REGION OF THIS FEATURE. BREAKS IN THE
MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE OUR ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT, AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, CREATING
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE OVER OUR AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS EXPANDED THE "MARGINAL" RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE MOST OF OUR AREA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-60 MPH, TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES, AND POSSIBLY SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL WILL EXIST WITHIN ANY STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP AND PUSH SOUTHWARD. A POTENTIALLY EARLIER AFTERNOON ONSET OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD AGAIN KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS, WHILE TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE SOAR
TO THE LOW AND MID 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO THE 100-105 DEGREE
RANGE FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL BEFORE CONVECTION ARRIVES
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL, WHILE A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO
SOUTHEAST GA AFTER MIDNIGHT, ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TOWARDS
SUNRISE, TIGHTENING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CREATING BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA ON TUESDAY EVENING,
WITH THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING TO COASTAL NORTHEAST FL
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. DESPITE A NORTHEAST BREEZE AT INLAND LOCATIONS,
COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE LOWS DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S
ARRIVING ELSEWHERE INLAND TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FL. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP COASTAL LOWS CLOSER TO 70.
DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTH FL ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LINGER IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10 EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
SEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES,
PROVIDING OUR AREA WITH ONE LAST GASP OF SPRING WEATHER. A TIGHT
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY GRADUALLY LOOSEN,
KEEPING BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS IN PLACE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, STRONG COOL AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DROPPING LOWS TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-10, WITH LOW TO MID 60S
ELSEWHERE INLAND. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COASTAL
LOWS CLOSER TO 70.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE AT AREA
BEACHES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- GRADUAL WARM-UP FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT PIVOTS
EASTWARD, PUSHING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY
MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON THURSDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN SLIDING SLOWLY EASTWARD
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT A
VERY DRY AIR MASS MAY PERSIST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FAR BELOW NORMAL FOR OUR REGION. HIGHS WILL
WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 80S INLAND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
THE UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON HIGHS APPROACHING 90
NEXT WEEKEND. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP
COASTAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE
BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE UNUSUALLY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP INLAND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A GRADUAL WARM-
UP THROUGH THE 60S TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE WILL
KEEP COASTAL LOWS AROUND 70 LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK, WARMING TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
MODELS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN TRENDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DOWNWARDS AREA-WIDE, SO HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FROM THE DUVAL SITES AND GNV THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR
A STORM WILL BE AT SGJ, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MVFR
CEILINGS CONTINUE ON AND OFF AT THE DUVAL SITES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
OVERALL THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH POTENTIAL
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. STORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MARINE
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY, AND THEN
DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS ON
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, CREATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT OUR
LOCAL WATERS. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES.
RIP CURRENTS: GENERALLY LOW TO LOW END MODERATE RISK FOR TODAY.
LOOKING AT INCREASED RISK TO MODERATE AND HIGH FROM TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES EXPECTED AT COASTAL
- LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS
AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
- INLAND LOCATIONS
ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. OTHERWISE, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY YIELD GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY,
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS
ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT, CREATING ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION
VALUES FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. MEANWHILE,
A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH AS BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE AREA. THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL YIELD GOOD TO
HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY AND EASTERLY BY FRIDAY, WITH AREAS OF HIGH
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES EXPECTED INLAND AND GOOD VALUES ELSEWHERE
ON BOTH DAYS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
ON TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 87 59 78 / 20 70 70 10
SSI 75 88 70 79 / 10 80 70 10
JAX 72 92 68 79 / 10 90 80 10
SGJ 74 91 70 81 / 0 80 90 30
GNV 72 93 67 82 / 0 80 90 20
OCF 75 91 70 81 / 20 60 90 40
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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