858
FXUS62 KJAX 022323
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
723 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
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- WET PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DAILY DOWNPOURS & STORMS. HIGHEST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON & EVENING. STORM HAZARDS:
LOCALIZED FLOODING, WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH & FREQUENT. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING WITH
- POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
- STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT & WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING.
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FL TONIGHT, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER
INLAND SE GA TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT
- ROUGH, BUILDING SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY
AND LIKELY INTO THURSDAY
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHILE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A NOTABLE DEPARTURE FROM EARLY JUNE
CLIMATOLOGY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FRONTAL FORCING MAY
SUPPORT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
WEATHER STORY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE BREEZY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND AND REMAINING NEAR 80 DEGREES OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE BEACHES. THESE VALUES ARE APPROXIMATELY 8
TO 12 DEGREES BELOW EARLY JUNE NORMALS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE DRY AIR MASS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE COAST WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA,
LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA, AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BY THURSDAY, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION, RESULTING IN A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LIGHTER NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50 TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COAST.
A FEW ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BREEZE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD:
- ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE AT AREA
BEACHES FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- GRADUAL WARM-UP FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DOMINATED BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT MID LEVELS, RIDGING REMAINS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHILE A WEAK MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MINIMAL INFLUENCE
FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
A PROLONGED STRETCH OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
ANTICIPATED AS EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 20 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRECIP CHANCES DO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY MONDAY AS
MOISTURE BEGINS A GRADUAL RETURN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.75" AND WITH A POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE
MERGER BETWEEN I-95 AND I-75.
TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY MODERATE DURING THE PERIOD. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S ALONG THE
COAST. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
COOLER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN PLEASANTLY COOL INLAND, GENERALLY IN THE
60S THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE COASTAL COMMUNITIES HOLD NEAR 70
DEGREES. BY MONDAY, LOWS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AREA-
WIDE AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES.
MARINE INFLUENCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED SURF AND A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND
DEPENDING ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THE NORTHEAST SWELL.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING, ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
OVERNIGHT, THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE GUSTS WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT, LEADING TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY WEEK'S END. OTHERWISE,
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK ACROSS AREA BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.
FIRE WEATHER
- AREAS TO WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
AREAS OF ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL
- LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
ELEVATED TRANSPORT WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS.
BY WEDNESDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PERSIST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF STATE ROUTE 16, BEFORE A MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE AND SUPPORT GOOD TO HIGH
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH VALUES GENERALLY
REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY TO EAST-NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND EASTERLY BY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE. AREAS OF
HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH GOOD DISPERSION VALUES ELSEWHERE. DESPITE
THE DRIER AIR MASS, RECENT RAINFALL AND GRADUALLY MODERATING
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING, DRIER AIR AND ELEVATED WINDS. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 80 56 83 / 20 0 0 0
SSI 72 79 71 82 / 20 0 0 0
JAX 70 81 66 84 / 30 0 0 0
SGJ 72 81 71 83 / 40 0 0 0
GNV 68 83 62 85 / 60 0 0 0
OCF 70 82 64 84 / 70 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ450-452-
470-472.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ454-474.
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